This article is part of our College Football Picks series.
We are more than halfway through the 2014 college football season, and what have we learned?
It depends on how you look at it. Either we've learned everything we need to know or nothing at all. Let me explain. For those who hoped to get a clear read on the four participants in the first-ever college football playoff, those folks have learned nothing at all. For everyone else, it's perfectly clear - this thing is so wide-open, there's no point in trying to figure out the final four at this point.
For those folks, though, there is something we can take away from the first half of the season and it's a story that's played out just about every season for the past five years -- certain conferences have no room for error if they wish to produce a national champion.
Which conferences are those? Well, the Big Ten, for one, has one realistic shot at even getting one team into the final four. The same holds true for the Pac-12, which actually comes as a surprise this year as big things were expected from more than just one team in that conference.
As is usually the case, the SEC remains the big dog and has the most teams alive for the final four. This year is different, though, as the reason there are so many teams still alive is the emergence of the two teams from Mississippi.
It certainly brings up an interesting scenario for the end of the
We are more than halfway through the 2014 college football season, and what have we learned?
It depends on how you look at it. Either we've learned everything we need to know or nothing at all. Let me explain. For those who hoped to get a clear read on the four participants in the first-ever college football playoff, those folks have learned nothing at all. For everyone else, it's perfectly clear - this thing is so wide-open, there's no point in trying to figure out the final four at this point.
For those folks, though, there is something we can take away from the first half of the season and it's a story that's played out just about every season for the past five years -- certain conferences have no room for error if they wish to produce a national champion.
Which conferences are those? Well, the Big Ten, for one, has one realistic shot at even getting one team into the final four. The same holds true for the Pac-12, which actually comes as a surprise this year as big things were expected from more than just one team in that conference.
As is usually the case, the SEC remains the big dog and has the most teams alive for the final four. This year is different, though, as the reason there are so many teams still alive is the emergence of the two teams from Mississippi.
It certainly brings up an interesting scenario for the end of the season in which there seem to be several worthy teams from the SEC. It's a debate that seems to pop up every year, but again, this year is different. What happens if the teams from Mississippi remain in good position until the end of the season and there's a one-loss Alabama team on the outside looking in?
With more than half the season yet to be played, there's still one burning question -- why are we talking about this again?
Not a great week overall last week, but I finally got on track with my top selections, going 3-0 with my "Cream of the Crop" picks. Just a quick refresher, categories are in order of how much I like the games. The "Cream of the Crop" picks are the ones I feel the best about, while the "Passing Thoughts" selections are generally high-profile games where I'll give my opinion, but it's just that, an opinion.
As always, I'll tweet any insights I come up with post-article each week. You can follow me at @gregvara
Cream of the Crop (Week: 3-0; Season: 5-13)
Saturday
Baylor at West Virginia: Only one team has held WVU to less than 33 points this season and that was Alabama in Week 1. Baylor has been held to less than 45 points just once this season. Neither is concerned with defense, and this game should truly go to the last team with the ball. On a side note, if both teams were coming off insane shootouts like Baylor and TCU were involved in last week, this number would scare me, but WVU played to a relatively tame score of 34-31 last week, which means the focus was likely not on the defense this week at practice.
Total: Over 79.5
UCLA at California: If either of these teams had more on the line, I might be worried about going over the total here, but since both teams have two losses already and both teams love to run up the score, I see no reason why this game goes under. Adding to my confidence is the effort that the California offense put forth last week, just seven points. Of course last week's "effort" was preceded by two games in which the total score was 115 or higher.
Total: Over 74.5
Michigan State at Indiana: Michigan State is the best team in the Big Ten, and as long as the Spartans take care of business the rest of the way, there's a chance that they'll make the big dance. They should have no trouble with an Indiana team that has both underperformed and lost its best offensive weapon.
Side: MSU -16
Nebraska at Northwestern: Northwestern already has a couple nice wins on its resume this season, and I fully expect the Wildcats to pick up another one this week at home. The seven points they are getting is just icing. Nebraska played MSU tough last week, but there's a difference between playing tough as a dog on the road and covering a decent-sized number on the road.
Side: Northwestern +7
Best of the Rest (Week 0-2-1; Season: 7-10-1)
Saturday
Georgia at Arkansas: Georgia stepped up huge in the absence of Todd Gurley last week, but that's how the Bulldogs operate. They are always at their best when no one expects it. Conversely, they are generally at their worst when people expect big things out of them. Guess where public sentiment is entering this game?
Side: Arkansas +4
Stanford at Arizona State: This isn't going to make much sense, but even though I think Stanford is the better of the two teams here, I think ASU is the pick this week. Stanford doesn't seem to have that extra gear that we've gotten accustomed to seeing the past few years. It's that gear that would have sealed the deal on the road at Notre Dame a couple weeks back and it's missing. It's also the gear the Cardinal will need this week if they are to win this game.
Side: ASU +3
Rutgers at Ohio State: Although my personal opinion is that MSU is the only team from the Big Ten with a chance to make the season-ending playoff, I'm guessing the folks at Ohio State don't share that opinion. To have any chance of making the final four, OSU will have to impress the rest of the way. Part of that process includes stomping everyone at home.
Side: OSU -19.5
PASSing Thoughts (Week: 2-3; Season: 22-12)
Thursday
Virginia Tech at Pittsburgh: Both of these teams had high expectations entering the season, and while both have played well in spots, for the most part, both teams have disappointed. With that in mind, I think this game is much more important for the home team, which can save what is left of the season with a win at home on Thursday night.
Side: Pittsburgh -1
Utah at Oregon State: Utah is off to a nice start, but I don't think the Utes should be in a position to lay points on the road to a team with the same record. Sure, Utah has faced a stronger schedule, but just by a bit. I'll take the points and the home team.
Side: Oregon State +2.5
Saturday
Tennessee at Mississippi: It's one thing for a team to jump up and surprise a better team, but it's another thing to come into a game with lofty expectations and take care of business. Ole Miss is now in an unfamiliar spot as the "hunted" team and I'm interested to see if they can live up to the new found expectations.
Side: Mississippi -17
Notre Dame at Florida State: FSU has not been very impressive this season, but this is the game that will get the 'Noles attention, and I expect a complete effort in this game.
Side: FSU -13.5
