College Football Picks: Picking Winners Week 11

CHRIS' PICKS

Finally a solid showing for me last week, as only the lowly Gators really let me down, while the Irish likely had their eyes ahead to this week's tilt in Miami, allowing the Deacons to get a late cover. Week 11 features a plethora of marquee matchups, and I also think it has a plethora of spreads that fall in to a "too obvious" category, which usually means we're wrong, and the odds makers are right. I wrote this much later in the week than I normally do, and in turn, read a few other pick 'em-type columns. Here's hoping I stick to my guns, haven't been swayed and can build on last week's surge.

UNLV –4.5 vs. BYU (Friday night)

BYU is a bad football team that has a win over FCS Portland State and winless San Jose State. Depending on where you look, the Cougars are 2-8 ATS, and that was with starting quarterback Tanner Mangum under center. He won't play Friday, and the Rebels are in need of two wins in their final three games to go bowling. Johnny Stanton has provided UNLV with balance as he's a very capable passer, while Lexington Thomas leads the Rebels' 13th-ranked rushing attack. BYU is coming off of a seven-point loss to a Fresno State team UNLV beat two weeks ago by 10, and until the Cougars knock off someone with a pulse, I'll take my chances against them.

Michigan State +17 at Ohio State

I suppose there are two lines of thought, one being Ohio State comes out ticked off and knocks the socks off a team it is clearly more talented than. The other being that with two losses, they aren't going to meet their preseason goals and have little to play for. I fully expect the Buckeyes to win, but this is a big number against a Spartans team that controls its own destiny in the Big Ten East. Spartans' coach Mark Dantonio seems to know how to slow down Urban Meyer. In six meetings since Meyer took over at Ohio State, the teams have split meetings 3-3, with Michigan State winning by three, one and falling by one in Columbus. The largest victory for OSU was 12 points, well within this number, and the aggregate score is 120-118 in favor of Sparty. Translation – close game.

South Carolina –5.5 vs. Florida

This is simply a case of teams going in opposite directions. Yes, it's taken South Carolina everything it had to beat Tennessee and Vanderbilt by a combined 13 points, but it was more than feisty at Georgia last week, and the offense appears to have turned a bit of a corner under Jake Bentley. Meanwhile, Florida has thrown egg all over my face in the last two weeks, losing by a combined 64 points to Georgia and a woeful Missouri team. They've dropped four in a row, and appear to have thrown in the towel. I don't expect Will Muschamp to go easy on his former employer, and this is a game I believe USC just wants more. Adding to the appeal is I've seen this line open as high as Gamecocks –9, and it's fallen to a much more comfortable number where I'm happy to be on the opposite side of the early money.

LSU –17 vs. Arkansas

The Razorbacks bring a two-game winning streak into Saturday; both by one point over Ole Miss and Coastal Carolina. Prior to that, they had dropped three conference games to South Carolina, Alabama and Auburn by a combined 90 points. They rank 96th nationally in run defense, allowing at least 159 yards in all conference games and at least 285 yards three times. Derrius Guice is healthy for the Tigers and ready to make up for lost time. He rumbled for 252 yards and two scores last season at Arkansas as the Tigers coasted to a 28-point win, and I'm banking on history repeating itself.

Clemson –16 vs. Florida State

This looks like a huge mismatch up front. Florida State's offensive line has allowed 66 tackles for loss (115th nationally) and 25 sacks (107th) while the Tigers rank fifth nationally in TFL with 75, and second in sacks with 33. Florida State has become an incredibly one-dimensional offense, running as often as the situation allows, and I don't see how James Blackman is ready for the environment and pressure he'll be under if/when he's forced to throw. Clemson hasn't looked great offensively, especially stretching the field through the air, but I'm not sure that will matter. The Noles have trouble scoring, averaging 18.6 points, with only Illinois lower among Power 5 schools. I see no way they get to that number in this one, and I think Clemson's defense gets on the board in an effort to easily cover this number.

Alabama –12.5 at Mississippi State

Mobile quarterbacks are a Nick Saban defense's kryptonite, right? Or maybe it's only Deshaun Watson. Bama absolutely destroyed MSU quarterback Nick Fitzgerald last season, allowing him to complete only 10 of 33 passes for 145 yards and an interception, while also limiting him to 15 yards on 11 carries. The Tide won that game, 51-3, and dating to 2010, they've allowed Mississippi State to top 10 points just once, six times holding them to single-digits. Any time I see Bama as a less than two touchdown favorite, I like my chances. Maybe this is close for a while, but I don't think it will be when all is said and done.

Also Considered: Tennessee +12.5 at Missouri, Oklahoma –7 vs. TCU, Southern Cal –12.5 at Colorado

Last week: 4-2; Season: 29-25-2

GREG's PICKS

I mentioned last week that I'd take a 3-2 finish every week, and although it stings to lose your last two games, I'll still take it. I got off to a hot start with an easy cover Friday night with Utah. That game was never in doubt and was surely a good way to start the week. Next up was Syracuse, and this game was anything but easy. The Orange trailed by more than seven for much of the game but got within three with a chance to tie late, and luckily for us, they failed to make that FG. The next game was an easier cover than Utah as 18-point dog Iowa won, and won with ease. The last two games came down until the end, but I ended up on the wrong side of both. The Nebraska game was more upsetting as it had the ball in the red zone, up seven points, with about five minutes left. The Nebraska QB threw a pick and Northwestern turned it into a game-tying score. A simple FG in that spot and the game and cover are pretty much in the bag. 



Michigan -17 at Maryland



Michigan is not going to meet any of its goals this season, but now that the players and coaches have realized that, they can move onto other goals, like finishing the season strong and playing in a bowl game. I know, it's not exactly a huge motivator, but the Wolverines were in the same spot last week while facing Minnesota and sure looked motivated. Michigan is not a powerhouse in its current form, but it can put a whooping on a bad team and Maryland has turned into a bad team. Maryland has lost four of its last five games and the Terps will need one or, more likely, two wins to become bowl eligible this season, but unfortunately, they face Michigan this week, followed by Michigan State and Penn State. In other words, it's probably hard for the players to believe there is much at stake over the next three weeks.


South Carolina -5.5 vs. Florida



For this pick, I'm going back the theory that I've used with Florida State a few times this season and that's the "back against the wall" theory, but only the reverse. You see, just like the Seminoles, if the Gators had any fight left in them, we would have seen it last week when Randy Shannon took over against an extremely beatable Missouri team. How did that turn out? The Gators were on the wrong side of a 45-16 beat down. They scored 16 points against one of the worst defenses in the country. For those keeping track at home, that's four consecutive weeks the Gators' offense has scored 17 points or less. South Carolina is a middle of the pack team, but the Gamecocks have enough fire power to take advantage of a wounded Gator team. It's not often that the middle-tier SEC teams get a chance to beat up on perennial powerhouses, so when they get a chance like this, they often take advantage. 



Illinois +8 vs. Indiana

Illinois somehow managed to pick up two wins in its non-conference portion of the schedule, but since conference play started, it's been nothing but loss after loss. If there is a bright side, it's that the Fighting Illini haven't let any of their past four games get out of hand. I know, it's not much to get excited about, but when you are widely considered the worst team in the Big Ten, you find positives in every game that you aren't throttled. Indiana get a lot of credit for improving, but when I watch the Hoosiers the thing that sticks out more than anything is that they don't tackle very well. They gave the teams from Michigan a run for their money, but really, how good are the teams from Michigan this year? Indiana might be better than in year's past, but asking the Hoosiers to cover a number this size, on the road, in conference is a tall task.

Iowa State +6.5 vs. Oklahoma State



As I was watching the game in Stillwater last week it occurred to me that I actually picked OSU to win because I thought it had the better defense of the two teams. Now, Oklahoma has one heck on an offense, but what happened to the Cowboys' defense last week was outrageous. I'm sure that unit as a whole will put forth a better effort this week, but I'm worried about the team as a whole after such a big loss. Bedlam is always a big game, and sometimes, there's more riding on it than bragging rights, and last week was one of those times. Oklahoma State could have slipped back into the playoff conversation with a win last week and that's all gone now. It's going to be tough to get past the loss last week and if the Cowboys are not at their best this week, they won't win. Iowa State is also coming off a tough loss as well, but the Cyclones are clearly a team on the rise, and there's no way they let one loss derail what they have going on in Ames.

Clemson -16 vs. Florida State

This line is bizarre. It's almost like the odds makers assume that Clemson will look past the Seminoles. That or they think the public still believes in Florida State. Yes, 16 is a rather large number, but if Clemson plays anywhere near its best, it wins this game by 30. The Seminoles have only been blown out once since they lost their starting QB for the season, but they've actually had a fairly easy schedule until this point and they've yet to face a spot like this. Clemson is not the machine it was last season, but the Tigers survived their loss at Syracuse and they seemingly control their own destiny. Considering it could get pretty sticky if the top-6 teams win out, or something close to that, Clemson will need all the style points it can get and this week the Tigers are going to win with style.

Last Week: 3-2; Season: 29-22