College Football Picks: Picking Winners Week 3

CHRIS' PICKS

Welp, the impossible happened last week, as I put up a perfect 5-0 record. Lucky or good, I really don't know, or care! I just hope it can continue, but my feelings certainly won't be hurt if fading across the board seems the wiser option. A lot of these lines are steady, and hover around magic betting numbers where you could push, or be squeezed by a half point. They don't alter my selections, but just keep that in mind.

Nebraska –13 vs. Northern Illinois

Mike Riley seemed to get his team's ear (finally) at halftime last week in Eugene, and the Huskers shut out Oregon over the second half, nearly completing a huge comeback. Their pass defense has been their downfall, allowing 390 yards per game to proven starters at Oregon and Arkansas State. Fortunately for them, Northern Illinois doesn't boast that type of success under center, managing only 203 yards against Boston College and 269 against Eastern Illinois. Nebraska has shown they can put up points, and I think they win convincingly and build momentum over the coming weeks with Rutgers and Illinois on deck before facing Wisconsin.

Purdue +7.5 at Missouri

The Tigers played much better defensively last week against South Carolina after their woeful opener against Southwest Missouri State, yet still allowed 31 points. As such, I have no confidence they'll be able to slow down Jeff Brohm's spread attack. Purdue held Lamar Jackson in check in Week 1, or at least limited him on the scoreboard, and convincingly beat an Ohio team that is among the favorites in the MAC and is an eight-point favorite over Kansas this week. There's no doubt they are traveling to Columbia expecting to win, and I think they'll have a chance to do that down the stretch Saturday.

Toledo –9 vs. Tulsa

Both team's enter Saturday with top-30 offenses, so maybe the over is the better play. But Tulsa's defense has been a sieve through two games, allowing 619 yards on the ground and 617 yards through the air to Oklahoma State and Louisiana. Toledo has been sound against the run, though they haven't faced a team that runs as well as the Golden Hurricanes. But their defense is the better unit of the two, and as such, they'll have a better shot at creating multiple stops in route to a victory.

Oregon –14.5 at Wyoming

Last week's second-half shutout performance from the Ducks offense is concerning. And I expect War Memorial Stadium will be jacked up at kickoff, so much so an early lead for the Cowboys wouldn't surprise me. But the Ducks offense is so balanced between quarterback Justin Herbert and running back Royce Freeman that the Ducks should be able to gain control over the course of 60 minutes. Wyoming only managed 27 points on Garner Webb last week, and three the week before at Iowa while still searching for a running game. Dating back to 2014, Wyoming has been outscored 211-62 in five games against Power-5 schools, never scoring more than 17 points. While all of those games were on the road, I look for Oregon to be able to stretch this lead as the game progresses.

Ole Miss –3.5 at California

I'd like to say I'm not sure what to make of the Rebels defense, but giving up 27 and 23 points to South Alabama and UT Martin would suggest they aren't all that hot. What has been hot is quarterback Shea Patterson, completing 76.9 percent of his passes in route to 918 yards and nine touchdowns. The Bears defense was just shredded for 431 yards by Weber State, and I believe the 221 they allowed to UNC in Week 1 would have been much higher had the Heels not rotated quarterbacks. After watching North Carolina against Louisville last week, I put considerably less stock in the Bears' offensive performance to open the season, and I'm looking for Patterson and company to come out early and set the tone for another big passing day and convincing road win.

Buyer Beware

I'm including these here because they still look like strong plays. But they look almost too obvious, and that usually tells me the odds makers know something I/we don't. Because otherwise, there's no way these games are close.

Virginia Tech –23.5 at East Carolina

Somewhat predictably, the Hokies sleepwalked through most of last week's game against Delaware, leading to a 27-0 finish in a game where they were favored by 50-plus points. The mediocre showing figures to have Justin Fuente in his team's ear this week. I worry that they haven't established a consistent rushing attack, and that the offense may remain as bland as possible over the next two weeks before a showdown with Clemson. The flip side is it's impossible to put into words just how bad East Carolina has been, and making matters worse is Thomas Sirk's (concussion) status. The Pirates rank 129th in total defense, allowing 614.0 yards per game. Greenville has been a house of horrors in the past for the Hokies, but they'll take care of business here, and quickly. Perhaps maybe a first half line is appealing as well.

Duke –14 vs. Baylor

I'm not sure if last week's 41-17 win over Northwestern says more about the Wildcats or the Blue Devils. But I am sure that I'd trust Northwestern to beat Baylor … so what's the catch with this line? Duke had an incredibly balanced attack last week against the Wildcats, rushing for 233 yards and throwing for 305, and their rush defense has been incredibly stout, allowing only 1.65 yards per carry. And if anyone needs a reminder, Baylor has lost home games to UT-San Antonio and Liberty. Perhaps their pending switch at quarterback sparks the offense, but until you see it, don't you have to play against it?

Last week: 5-0; Season: 7-3

GREG'S PICKS

Pittsburgh +13.5 vs. Oklahoma State



Oklahoma State is living up to heightened expectations through two games, but the Cowboys have yet to play any team of significance and while the Panthers aren't world-beaters, they've definitely got some fight in them. The Panthers proved as much last week as they got down early at Penn State and could have succumbed to what is one of the better teams in the nation, but they hung in there and at least covered the number. OSU certainly has the fire power to cover this number, but I'm expecting a lot of fight out of this Panther team again this week and another cover.


Over 72.5, UCLA at Memphis



Two games in and it's pretty clear that UCLA is going to be involved in a lot of shootouts this season. There was the highly publicized opener against Texas A&M, but last week the Bruins combined with Hawaii for 79 points and the Rainbows don't have nearly the offense that the Tigers do. This is a big game for Memphis as it could conceivably run the table with a win against UCLA and a couple breaks down the road, but everything starts with this game. With that in mind, I expect a good effort on both sides of the ball, which will result in a lot of points on offense, but sadly for the Tigers, there isn't much they can do on defense to stop the Bruins.



Louisville +3.5 vs Clemson

The marquee game of the weekend should be a great one as both teams enter hitting on all cylinders. Such was the case last season when these two teams met at Clemson and while the Tigers came out on top in that game, the Cardinals put up a huge fight. I'm expecting the same effort here, but I actually like Louisville to come out on top. A few things working in the Cardinals favor…Clemson has been playing at such a high level for so long that they are simply bound to come down at some point, right? Even the great Alabama teams of the past decade have slipped up here and there during the regular season and I believe that has a lot to do with the constant pressure. Second, Clemson just met a huge challenge at home last week against Auburn and although everyone is hyped for this game, it will be hard to bring that intensity in back to back games. Last and not least, Deshaun Watson isn't around to help the Tiger offense keep up with Lamar Jackson.

Purdue +7.5 at Missouri



This is my first, "I just don't get it" line of the year. Last I checked, the Tigers couldn't stop a 6-man high school squad from Texas, let alone an 11-man college football team. Missouri allowed over 30 points per game last season and its defense has not improved through two games this season. The expectations on Purdue this season are pretty low, but the Boilermakers opened with a good effort against Louisville, eventually losing by just seven points. Purdue keeps this game close and possibly wins in the end.

Over 76, Arizona State vs Texas Tech

One game into the 2017 season and it looks like we'll be treated to the same fireworks week in and week out from the Red Raiders. Sure, they held Eastern Washington to 10 points, but as soon as they start playing real competition (this week) I am sure we'll see the Red Raider defense of old. ASU is generally good for a few shootouts a year as well and through two games, Sun Devils are allowing over 30 points per game. This should be a back and forth affair, with the over hitting early in the fourth quarter.


Last Week: 3-2; Season: 6-5