College Football Picks: Picking Winners Week 5

CHRIS' PICKS

Two solid weeks in a row, with only a ton of turnovers from TCU leading to a loss, and a failed two-point conversion resulting in a push for Georgia.

I'm not in love with this week's slate, and there are a ton of lines that don't make a lot of sense. LSU -11.5 vs. Ole Miss? Florida State –6 at Louisville? I also did some pre-writing this week, and had the Alabama-UL Lafayette spread initially pegged around 60, just an unfathomable number. Here's hoping I picked a few winners out of the litter.

Eastern Michigan –3.5 vs. Northern Illinois

Despite a relatively positive showing in Tallahassee last week where they notched 19 points, NIU is averaging a mere 14 points per game. They bring the 122nd ranked rushing offense to the table (101.0 ypg, 2.75 ypc) and pair it with the 123rd ranked passing offense (135.0 ypg). Eastern Michigan counters with a battle-tested squad, one that has already upset Purdue, a team that has since challenged Missouri and beat Boston College. They held Buffalo's potent offense reasonably in check, and are coming off of a hard-fought overtime loss to San Diego State, a squad that knocked off Arizona State. The Eagles have a potent aerial attack, averaging 308.3 yards per game, which plays well against the Huskies' 85th ranked pass defense. EMU has fallen to the Huskies in overtime in each of the last two years, but that won't be the case here as the Eagles have too much firepower for NIU.

Virginia Tech +5 at Duke

My initial projection had this game at an even line, but that was before the Hokies' shocking loss at Old Dominion, which included the loss of starting quarterback Josh Jackson and was followed by the dismissal of defensive end Trevon Hill. I was confident in a VT victory by at least a touchdown before those variables, but I still think they have a great shot to win outright here, so getting points feels solid. The Hokies defense is a mess, and Duke is a very well-coached team that will pick its spots and take advantage of the opportunities that present themselves. But Virginia Tech's biggest vulnerability has been down field, where Duke doesn't have an ideal receiver to target, and backup turned starting quarterback Quentin Harris has very limited accuracy. Duke has an injured secondary which will make life easier on new starter Ryan Willis. This game goes one of two ways – the Hokies win outright as the better team, despite them not being nearly as good as many thought after beating FSU. Or Duke blows the Hokies out and Virginia Tech is faced with a potential mutiny. I'm siding with the former.

UL-Monroe –7.5 at Georgia State

The Panthers are another offense that just has no momentum entering Week 5. Against three FBS opponents, they've scored 44 total points, an average of only 14.3. They rank 124th overall in scoring offense, put up a mere 117.0 yards per game on the ground and 213.3 yards per game through the air. On the other side, the WarHawks have taken their lumps in the last two weeks against Texas A&M and a surging Troy squad, but they remain a capable passing offense led by quarterback Caleb Evans, ranking 47th with 264 yards nightly. Evans is also the team's leading rusher, speaking to how freely they'll throw the ball here. The Panthers defense has allowed 11 touchdowns through the air across four weeks; only seven teams have allowed more I picked on the Panthers last week with success, and we'll ride that train for another week. You have to assume UL-Monroe scores at least 28 points here, and nothing suggests GSU can get to 20.

Central Florida –13.5 vs. Pittsburgh

UCF brings a 13-game winning streak into Saturday, and haven't missed a beat in transitioning from Scott Frost to Josh Heupel, averaging 49.3 points (9th nationally) this season through an incredibly balanced offense, ranking seventh in rushing with 283.7 yards per game, 21st in passing at 304.0 ypg, and fifth in total offense at 587.7 ypg. That kind of firepower is something the Panthers cannot keep up with under any circumstances. Pittsburgh runs the ball decently, averaging 212.3 yards per game, but they are woeful through the air, ranking 118th in passing offense with just 148.8 yards per game. Central Florida's attack will keep their foot down throughout the contest, scoring at will against a defense that allowed 38 points to North Carolina and 51 to Penn State. Pittsburgh ranks 100th against the run, allowing 4.87 yards per carry and 191.0 yards per game. Once the Knights put up a few touchdowns, Pittsburgh will largely be forced to abandon the run and try to keep up. That's not what they are built to do, which figures to allow the Knights to stretch things out as the game progresses.

Georgia Tech –28.5 vs. Bowling Green

Finding a fifth game to include here was a real challenge, and I hate how big this number is. But Bowling Green has no chance at stopping the Jackets option attack, no matter how many questions the Georgia Tech presents at quarterback or B-back. The Falcons rank last in the country in rush defense, allowing 333.5 yards per game and 15 touchdowns through four weeks. Even Miami (OH), who had 237 total yards on the ground in three contests with one score got the Falcons for 289 yards and three touchdowns last week. Offensively, the Falcons can't run and while they are decent through the air, Georgia Tech ranks 35th against the pass. Again, I despise how big of a number we're asking the Jackets to cover, as there may only be seven or eight possessions for their offense thanks to their clock churning style. But if GT doesn't run for 400+, they may be someone we go against weekly throughout conference play.

Last week: 3-1-1; Season: 11-8-1

GREG'S PICKS

It took four weeks, but I finally had my first losing week. I'll certainly take that, especially considering it wasn't a terrible week, just a run of the mill 2-3 week. Of the three loses, only the Iowa game stung a bit as the Hawkeyes could have and maybe should have won that game. The other two loses, the under in the Minnesota game and over in the Purdue game were a result of me overestimating the prowess of the Gopher defense and the Eagles offense, both of which need a lot of work. The wins were fairly easy as both MSU and Arizona played well from the start and cruised to fairly-easy victories. 



Colorado +8.5 at UCLA



I smell a trap here and I may be walking blindly into it, but this line just makes no sense at all. UCLA is 0-3 and the Bruins have yet to come within nine points of any of their opponents and they've face just one ranked team. Chip Kelly's reign has not started well and there seem to be factors off the field that are contributing to the slow start as well. Whatever is going on there, it's not something that is going to fix itself in a matter of days. Colorado on the other hand is off to a great start. The Buffs' are 3-0 and while the competition hasn't been great, they did pick up a road win in the Big Ten, which is saying something for a team from the PAC 12.


Temple +13.5 at Boston College



I might be overreacting to the Eagles performance last week but this line also seems out of whack. Speaking of that performance, I'm not sure I've seen a team look so different from one week to the next. The Eagles looked like a bad MAC team last week at Purdue. Check that, a bad MAC team won at Purdue earlier this year, B.C. never even came close. I'm hoping what happened wasn't just a bad effort, more of an exposing of an overrated QB. Temple meanwhile got off to a slow start, but has since played some good ball over the past couple weeks. The Owls went to Maryland and beats the Terps' with ease and came back home and took care of business against Tulsa last week. I'm B.C. will be chomping at the bit to move on from its loss at Purdue, but it might not be that easy against a game Temple squad.



Duke -5 vs. Virginia Tech

Now this line actually makes sense as if the Hokies had won last week and had their starting QB healthy, they would be favored, but since they don't have their starting QB and they lost to Old Dominion, they are substantial dogs. There's no way to tell how the Hokies will look with their backup QB at the helm, but even if they hit the ground running, that defense has some major holes to fix. A good point was brought up last week during the Hokies game and that was that the perception of the Hokies was largely based on their impressive win against Florida State, but FSU has since proven to be a fraud, so really, how good are the Hokies? Duke has been impressive this season as the Blue Devils have passed every hurdle to date. Sure, the scheduled hasn't been great, but they've won road games at Northwestern and Baylor by double-digits. In other words, they've done everything they can with what's been put in front of them. Make no mistake, this will be their toughest test to date, but that just means that the Blue Devils will be even more amped for this game.

BYU +17 at Washington



I watched Washington battle Auburn earlier in the season and I also watched the Huskies beat ASU last week and the impression that I got was that they are going to struggle to separate from quality teams. That doesn't mean that they are any less of a team, they could easily win the Pac-12, but it just won't be easy or look easy rather. BYU has been very impressive in its two road games this season, toppling Arizona in its opener and most recently beating Wisconsin in Madison. I'm not predicting another mammoth upset here, but I'd be surprised if the Cougars let this game get away from them.

Oklahoma -23.5 vs. Baylor

Oklahoma could find itself in trouble at some point this weekend, but it won't be because of complacency. The Sooners nearly threw away their season last week as they were taken to overtime by Army … at home no less. They were also taken to the wire last year by this same Baylor team. Make no mistake, the Sooners will be ready to play this week. That should be enough to cover this number as there's no reason to think the Bears can slow Kyler Murray and company. The Bears are 3-1 but that record couldn't be more misleading. The Bears beat Abilene Christian and UTSA before dropping a home game to Duke and rebounding against a terrible Kansas team. In other words, they've accomplished nothing more than besting their 1-win season from last year. The Sooners will start fast this week and cruise to an easy victory, partially erasing the memory of the Army game from the minds of the public.

Last Week: 2-3; Season: 12-8