College Football Picks: Picking Winners Week 7

CHRIS' PICKS

Let the fading begin. After a second consecutive losing week, I'm 4-7-1 this year, and needed a garbage touchdown from Texas Tech just to get a second win last week. That record is even tougher to swallow as I've been favoring many games in my "home " conference (the ACC). With that in mind, I like UNC (+7.5) at Miami and Virginia (+3) vs. Pittsburgh this week, but won't fully go on record.

I am 2-0 on Friday night, however, so it seems prudent I continue going to that well until it dries up as I desperately seek out some winners.

Louisville (-35) vs. Duke (Friday)

This is a huge number to cover against a Duke team that's biggest defeat this year is 14 points (against Virginia). But the Blue Devils have been gashed for big chunks of yards, allowing at least 320 passing yards in three consecutive prior to facing Army's option attack last week. Louisville leads the nation in scoring at 58.0 points per game, and after having more than a week to lick their wounds after falling to Clemson, the Cardinals likely won't step off the gas early and will pummel the Blue Devils in prime time.

Virginia Tech (-19.5) at Syracuse

This has trap game written all over it for the Hokies, who are coming off a dominant performance at North Carolina and have a showdown with Miami next Thursday looming. But the Hokies' defense has been suffocating against the pass, which is nearly all the 'Cuse does. Virginia Tech allowed only East Carolina to pass for more than 91 yards, and its seven interceptions rank 18th nationally. Syracuse is coming off a 19-point loss to Wake Forest, and its average margin of defeat in four losses is 23.5. So long as this stays under three touchdowns, give me the Hokies.

Ohio (-7) vs. Eastern Michigan

The Eagles have allowed their last two opponents, both conference foes, to top 200 yards rushing, and that trend should continue against a Bobcats offense that has gone for at least 183 yards on the ground in four of six games. Neither team offers much downfield passing, and the Bobcats' defense is stingy against the rush, allowing a meager 3.21 yards per carry. I like Ohio's ability to control the line of scrimmage on both sides and think that can lead to a comfortable home victory.

Texas Tech (-1) vs. West Virginia

Texas Tech proved last week just how awful its defense is by allowing 44 points to a passing-challenged Kansas State team. The Red Raiders can't stop anyone, and I don't see that changing against an aggressive Mountaineers attack that is averaging 318 passing yards per game. But this will be West Virginia's first true road game of the season and it will be the just the second time they've faced an offense that can attack through the air, with a Week 1 matchup against Missouri the only time they've faced a passing attack ranked in the top 80 nationally. This game has a total of 83, and figures to come down to who has the ball last, and as such, I'll take Patrick Mahomes to pull out a win at home.

Ohio State (-10.5) at Wisconsin

It's a sizeable number for the Buckeyes to cover against a stout Wisconsin defense, but the issue is Ohio State has equally as fierce a defense statistically, but a vastly superior offense to the Badgers. Ohio State has held three of five opponents to 10 points or less and allowed a season-high 24 to a solid Oklahoma offense. With an over/under of 44, we're looking at a game around 27-17, and since 2013, the Buckeyes have been held to less than 27 points just twice, a span of 47 games. If they can reach 30 points, they're likely to win by two touchdowns.

Last Week: 2-3; Season: 4-7-1

GREG'S PICKS

Certainly not how I'd hoped to follow up the first week back on the Capper-train, but sometimes these things take a week or two to settle in.

I feel pretty good about the slate this week, but before we get to this week's games, a quick look back at the lowlights from last week.

The week got off to a poor start when Clemson decided that it no longer wants to leave anything to chance when playing bad teams and annihilated Boston College. A couple easy wins with the totals in the Virginia Tech and Oklahoma games were spoiled by a tough loss on Minnesota, which was in good position for much of the second half. As for Michigan State, well that win against Notre Dame doesn't look so good anymore, and after consecutive losses to Indiana and BYU, the Spartans appear to be calling it a season.

Virginia Tech (-19.5) at Syracuse

When I first saw this line, it seemed a bit high, but a closer look revealed two things. One, Syracuse is not just bad, but really bad. Unlike the professional game where you can't necessarily label teams as bad or great, the college game is filled with truly awful teams, and Syracuse is one. The Orange are coming off a 19-point loss to Wake Forest, and the week before they got thumped by Notre Dame. The Hokies, on the other hand, dominated a sound North Carolina team last week and entering this week the only blemish on their schedule is a loss to a pretty good Tennessee squad. I am worried about a letdown after such a solid showing last week, but if the Hokies show up to play, they'll have no problem covering this number.

Under 49.5, Minnesota (+6.5) at Maryland

Neither of these teams has beaten anyone of importance of this season, so it's tough to get a gauge on where either program is now. A couple things we know. One, Minnesota enters without its starting QB, which could actually work in its favor because … two, Maryland can't stop a competent running attack. Look for Minnesota to get back to basics this weekend, with a lot of running and solid defense, which also will hold the total under the number.

Illinois (-6) at Rutgers

Rutgers is the laughing stock of the college football world after allowing 78 points to Michigan last week. I'm sure the Scarlet Knights would love to remedy that this week, but I'm not sure they can. If ever there was a chance to do so, it would be against an Illinois team that has yet to beat a decent team. Problem is, Illinois is looking at this game as its best chance to win a conference game. As bad as its record is, Illinois has actually showed some signs of life against quality opponents, something Rutgers can't say. As such, the number, which is below a TD, is reasonable.

Over 69.5 Iowa State at Texas

Unlike the professional game, where teams can often correct issues from one week to the next, in college, issues tend to remain, or even become more problematic as the season progresses. Enter the Longhorns defense, which hasn't slowed anyone outside of UTEP all season. Iowa State is not a powerhouse on offense, but it has averaged more than 34 points per game in its last four games. Texas will continue to score and continue to allow plenty of points this week.

Nebraska (-3.5) at Indiana

I'm still not sold on the Hoosiers. They beat a Michigan State team that has proven to be average at best, and, sure, they played Ohio State "tough" according to some. Well, I watched that game, and it was never in doubt, so I'm not sure how "tough" they played. Also, OSU was due for a letdown, so let's not get too excited. If the Hoosiers win this week, I'll start to believe, but I don't see it happening.

Over 73 Tulsa at Houston

I expect a shootout, but the only thing that worries me is how poorly Houston's defense played last week. That said, see my note above about the inability of college teams to correct mistakes in a timely manner. Houston's defense isn't as bad as it looked last week, but that might not matter this week as Tulsa brings an attack that has averaged nearly 50 points per game in its last three.

Last Week: 2-5; Season: 5-8