DFS College Football: National Championship

Welcome to our breakdown for the National Championship game between LSU and Clemson as we look to put a bow on an amazing season and crown a champion. Below, we've got a full breakdown of the matchup along with our suite of DFS Tools, along with a look at the DFS options. 

Breakdown

I couldn't be more excited for this game. It's a clash of the two best teams in college football who have taken very different paths to get here. 

LSU's 2019 has been fascinating. Prior to this year, LSU had been a sleeping giant who kept hitting the snooze button on getting with the times. Recruiting at an elite level and developing that talent into future NFL stars helped define this past decade of LSU football, but so did a lack of results. 

Zero SEC West Titles from 2012-2018 and an eight-game losing streak to Alabama was the true prevailing narrative around this program heading into this season. So, what changed? We had heard the lip service from LSU before, that this Tigers team would be different. They were going to open up the offense, be more multiple. They were going to spread people out and go tempo. And what came of it? The 30th rated offense in S&P+ in 2018, 23rd in 2017, 41st in 2016. 

Enter Joe Brady, a former offensive assistant with the Saints who became LSU's passing game coordinator and helped change everything about the offense. In tailoring the passing game to quarterback Joe Burrow's strengths, Brady brought LSU's passing attack from the Dark Ages to the Cutting Edge. In one fell swoop. Burrow averaged 372 passing yards per game while completing 77.6 percent of his passes, which is the best mark by a quarterback for as far back as the Sports Reference data goes. Oh, and it wasn't dink-and-dunk, either. Burrow averaged 10.9 yards per attempt, which ranked second behind only Oklahoma's Jalen Hurts. Bottom line: the Brady-Burrow marriage has transformed the LSU offense into a juggernaut. 

And then we have Clemson, which is somehow flying under the radar after yet another undefeated season under Dabo Swinney and Trevor Lawrence. Maybe it's because of the extreme, unprecedented optics coming out of the LSU side that we forget just how formidable this Clemson team is. Clemson had an average scoring margin of +32.9 points per game. Only Ohio State's +33.1 was better, and Clemson beat Ohio State. That is dominant. And the strange thing is, it doesn't feel like Clemson has really played its best game yet. The collection of Lawrence, Travis Etienne, Tee Higgins, and Justyn Ross can hang points on anybody and the defense, which ranks third in S&P+. This is a complete team. So let's move onto how these two teams stack up against one another. 

LSU has the No.1-rated offense in S&P+. It leads the nation in scoring offense (48.9 points per game) and it scores on an FBS-best 97.1 percent of its trips to the red zone. Of LSU's 70 trips to the red zone, the Tigers have punched in touchdowns 55 times. It's close to offensive perfection. That's part of the reason why Clemson is such an interesting matchup for them. 

Teams reached the red zone on Clemson just 28 times this season. They scored 10 touchdowns and 11 field goals in those trips. So, put another way, teams only got inside Clemson's 20 an average of twice per game. And they only came away with points of any kind just 75 percent of the time. For all intents and purposes, Clemson turned its opponents red zone offenses into Arkansas.  
That's why I think LSU's red zone offense versus Clemson's red zone defense could be the difference in this game . If LSU can keep churning out touchdowns when it gets into scoring range like it has all year, Clemson will be in trouble. And if Clemson can keep LSU out of the end zone in those scenarios and force field goals, LSU could face a fate similar to that of Ohio State a few weeks ago. You can't kick field goals against Clemson and hope to win. 

In all, I think this game will deliver on the hype. This really could be one of the best national championship games in recent memory. A matchup of Future No.1 draft picks going head-to-head in New Orleans. The defending champs going up against a team that has stolen the headlines all year. Coach O versus Dabo. Brady versus Venables. 

Even with this game being played an hour from LSU's campus, Clemson makes this one very competitive. Trevor Lawrence and Co. will give LSU its biggest test to date in what will be a back-and-forth title fight. But in the end, this is LSU's year and LSU's time. 

Prediction: LSU 38, Clemson 34. 

Cheat Sheet

DFS Tools

Stats

Targets

Team Trends

Defense vs. Position

Team Rankings

Lineup Optimizer

Value Report

Podcast

DFS Breakdown

MVP/Team Captain

Trevor Lawrence, Clemson ($16,200 DK MVP; $15,000 FD)

Going quarterback in this spot likely won't be a tournament winner, but it's a fine building block for cash games. Now, choosing between Burrow and Lawrence is tough. But the relative savings you get on Lawrence is enough to steer me in his direction. He's mobile (36.7 rushing yards per game, 8 rushing scores) on top of being an elite passer and he draws the easier matchup of the two quarterbacks. 

FLEX/UTIL Plays

Ja'Marr Chase, LSU ($8,600 DK; $12,500 FD)

It's worth noting the valuation difference between sites. On DraftKings, Chase -- who won the frickin' Biletnikoff Trophy, mind you -- is $1,200 less than teammate Justin Jefferson. On FanDuel, he's $500 more expensive than Jefferson. I tend to agree with FanDuel's valuation of the two, so Chase stands out as a glaring value over on DraftKings. We're talking about a guy who averaged 14.0 YPT on 111 targets and scored 18 touchdowns, and yet he's the fourth-priciest non-quarterback on DraftKings. 

Tee Higgins, Clemson ($8,000 DK; $11,000 FD)

I've made the case for Higgins a few times late in the season. Since Week 10, Higgins leads the nation in receiving touchdowns with 10 and he's ripping off 13.5 yards per target in that span. Derek Stingley Jr. will be a tough coverage assignment, but it's clear that Higgins is the receiver that Lawrence trusts the most. Justyn Ross is of course interesting as well and will likely carry a lower ownership percentage given his lack of production compared to the other top-end receiving options. 

Terrace Marshall Jr., LSU ($6,800 DK; $9,500 FD)

It's easy to forget how dominant Marshall was before his injury in Week 4. Through that point, he led LSU in targets (26) and receiving touchdowns (6). The foot injury cost him three games but Marshall has rounded back into form down the stretch. In his last three games, Marshall has 14 catches for 203 yards and four touchdowns on 20 targets. You don't often find pivots from the chalk that are as talented as Marshall. Keep him on your radar Monday. 

Joe Ngata, Clemson ($1,800 DK; $7,000 FD)

Showdown slates necessitate some dumpster diving. It's just the nature of the beast. So when we're wading into this part of the player pool, plausible upside is key. Ngata is a five-star talent who turned three of his 17 catches into touchdowns this season as a true freshman. At 6-3, 215, he's a matchup problem for almost any non-Stingley cornerback on LSU. We can't expect much more than three targets for Ngata, but that could be enough for him to make a big play and hit value. 

Other Recommendations

Thaddeus Moss, LSU ($4,200 DK; $7,500 FD)

Travis Etienne, Clemson ($9,400 DK; $13,00 FD)