DFS Main Slate Primer: Week 8 Primer

How quickly six or seven games can change our perceptions. Heading into the year, who would have believed that LSU would have probably the best offense in college football, or that Trevor Lawrence almost definitely wouldn't finish in the top three in Heisman voting. The season doesn't stop moving, though. We don't have anything quite on the level of Florida-LSU this week, but I'm drilling down on 12 games for DFS college football purposes. The numbers in parentheses after stats are FBS ranking. DK stands for DraftKings. FanDuel also offers DFS college football, but they tend to not unveil their Saturday contests, and prices, until later in the week. This information can still help you there, though. Let's get to it!

Cheat Sheet

Auburn (-18) at Arkansas , O/U 55.5, 12:00 PM ET

Auburn stats: 71.5 plays per game (55), 424.2 yards per game (45), 18.3 points allowed per game (16), 333.2 yards allowed per game (25)

Arkansas stats: 70.5 plays per game (70), 413.8 yards per game (51), 30.2 points allowed per game (70), 435.6 yards allowed per game (84)

Auburn has had a week to lick its proverbial wounds and get ready for this matchup after losing to the Gators in its last outing. Obviously, a quick look at Arkansas' numbers shows that this will be an easier matchup for the Tigers. The Razorbacks' offense doesn't look bad, but they mostly just beat up on Colorado State in one game where they scored 55 points. Nick Starkel ($5,500) has thrown seven touchdowns and seven picks. I don't believe in this offense, even at home. Not against perhaps a top-20 defense in the FBS

The Tigers rush for more yards per game than they pass for, and the Razorbacks have given up 175.3 rushing yards per game. In short, I expect Auburn to run all over Arkansas. Ah, but JaTarvious Whitlow is out with a knee injury! What will the Tigers do? My money is that they turn to the steady hands of senior Kam Martin ($4,600 DK). If he gets 20 carries or so, it could be a big day for him. I fully expect that to happen.

Prediction: Even without Whitlow, Auburn relies on the run, and its tenacious defense, to keep the ball out of Arkansas' hands en route to an easy rebound win. Auburn 28, Arkansas 10

Florida (-6) at South Carolina , O/U 48,12:00 PM ET

Florida stats: 67.6 plays per game (88), 408.0 yards per game (58), 19.8 points per game (21), 347.0 yards per game (34)

South Carolina stats: 70.3 plays per game (42), 336.8 yards per game (107), 25.8 points allowed per game (51), 431.0 yards allowed per game (81)

Very different weeks for these two teams last Saturday. The Gators suffered a tough loss LSU, while the Gamecocks stunned Georgia. However, Florida weathered LSU's offense and still just barely ranks outside the top 20 in points allowed per game. Also, if you want a picture of an inefficient offense, look at South Carolina's plays per game compared to yards per game. Granted, they've been using a backup quarterback most of the season, and had to bring on its third-string signal caller last week against Georgia. Will Muschamp says Ryan Hilinski ($5,900) should be back, but even if he is I'm not a fan of the Gamecocks offense.

The tricky thing is that I'm not really a fan of Florida's offense either. Kyle Trask ($6,100)has been better than expected, but he's not necessarily a good quarterback. There's a reason the Gators kept bringing in Emory Jones ($4,800) against LSU for a change of pace. I might take a gamble on receiver Freddie Swain ($5,200 DK). He's one of three Florida receivers with over 300 yards receiving and three touchdowns. He happens to average 19.9 yards per catch, though, giving him more big-play potential than others.

Prediction: South Carolina can't pull off a second miracle in a row, this time losing a low-scoring game to a ranked SEC team. Florida 24, South Carolina 10

Clemson (-24.5) at Louisville , O/U 61.5, 12:00 PM ET

Clemson stats: 72.3 plays per game (46), 497.0 yards per game (10), 12.3 points allowed per game (7), 254.8 yards allowed per game (3)

Louisville stats: 70.5 plays per game (29), 480.2 yards per game (17), 37.8 points allowed per game (117), 492.8 yards allowed per game (113)

Kudos to Scott Satterfield for getting the Louisville offense up and running. They run a ton of plays, and they put up a lot of yards. He's had to use three different quarterbacks, and Evan Conley may be the man under center this week, but he's getting it done. That's been necessary, because look at those sketchy defensive numbers. 

I feel like Clemson's yards per game is a magic trick or something. Trevor Lawrence hasn't thrown for over 206 yards in his last three games. And yet, the Tigers are clearly killing it. The defense is definitely no fluke, though. As much as I admire what Satterfield is doing with his offense, I'm steering clear this week.

Fortunately, it's a great week to stack up Clemson skill-position players! You want Trevor Etienne ($7,000 DK)? Go for it! Tee Higgins ($6,200 DK) has 549 yards receiving through six games! I still don't know about Lawrence, especially because he still costs a decent chunk of change ($7,300 DK), but I can't argue against it either.

Prediction: Louisville gets some points on Clemson, but Clemson puts up a lot more. Clemson 52, Louisville 21

Iowa State (-7) at Texas Tech , O/U 55.5, 12:00 PM ET

Iowa State stats: 69.0 plays per game (111), 469.6 yards per game (18), 19.8 points allowed per game (22), 333.6 yards allowed per game (26)

Texas Tech stats: 80.0 plays per game (18), 447.6 yards per game (32), 30.8 points allowed per game (78), 462.0 yards allowed per game (103)

This is looking like a Texas Tech team, even without Kliff Kingsbury. They are running a lot of plays, putting up good yards, and also giving up a lot of yards on defense. Outside of their matchup with Iowa, the Cyclones have been killing it on offense, though. The defense is also looking impressive, especially against the run. Of course, Texas Tech is not a team known for running the ball.

I'm on the Brock Purdy ($8,100 DK) bandwagon. In addition to throwing for 11 touchdowns against three interceptions, he's rushed for six scores. Quarterbacks who can run the ball always help in fantasy, and the Red Raiders have given up 185.2 rushing yards per game. Given that, I'm also throwing some love to Breece Hall ($5,600 DK) after his coming out party against West Virginia. He got 26 carries for 132 yards and three touchdowns. Let's see what he does for an encore.

Prediction: Iowa State runs all over Texas Tech. Brock Purdy scores through the air and on the ground. Texas Tech looks fine offensively, but the Cyclones get the road win in a close, fun game. Iowa State 28, Texas Tech 24

West Virginia (+33.5) at Oklahoma , O/U 65, 12:00 PM ET

West Virginia stats: 66.7 plays per game (91), 332.6 yards per game (109), 33.8 points allowed per game (102), 395.6 yards allowed per game (63)

Oklahoma stats: 65.0 plays per game (122), 599.8 yards per game (1), 21.6 points allowed per game (31), 340.6 yards allowed per game (29)

For a second there, it looked like West Virginia's offense was turning a corner. Now, not so much. Look, let's keep this simple. Oklahoma's offense has been amazing. It has averaged almost 600 yards per game. The Sooner are going to hang at least 40 on the Mountaineers. You want in on that offense.

So who do you want? If you are willing to just splurge and go "stars and scrubs," to use the common vernacular, grab Jalen Hurts ($9,000). Yes, he's expensive. Do you know why he's expensive? Because he's thrown for 1,758 yards and rushed for 630 yards. He has 25 total touchdowns. Hurts is the latest quarterback to get plugged into Lincoln Riley's offense and explode. If you want to try and save some money, go with Charleston Rambo ($6,100 DK) over CeeDee Lamb ($7,800 DK). Rambo has been totally fine, as he has 406 yards and four touchdowns receiving.

Prediction: The Sooners score so many points. Like, so many points. It'll be a bloodbath. Sorry, Mountaineers fans. Oklahoma 59, West Virginia 20

LSU (-19.5) at Mississippi State , O/U 61, 3:30 PM ET

LSU stats: 70.0 plays per game (59), 551.4 yards per game (2), 22.6 points allowed per game (33), 325.4 yards allowed per game (23)

Mississippi State stats: 64.5 plays per game (104), 376.2 yards per game (85), 27.2 points allowed per game (57), 394.3 yards allowed per game (62)

The Tigers have scored at least 42 points in every single game. They've played Texas and Florida. Meanwhile, Mississippi State allowed 56 points in Auburn, whose offense is nowhere near the potency of LSU. However, let's not overlook LSU's defense, even if it is a little odd they gave up 38 points to Vanderbilt somehow. That being said, the Bulldogs average more rushing yards per game than passing yards per game, and the Tigers only allowed 91.8 rushing yards per contest. Good luck with that, Mississippi State.

Clyde Edwards-Helaire ($6,200 DK) is the overlooked player on this LSU offense. Everybody is all about Joe Burrow ($8,500) and the passing game, and with good reason. However, Edwards-Helaire has averaged 6.9 yards per carry and scored seven touchdowns on the ground. That's quite good! Then again, that passing game is really awesome. Thus, let me also recommend Justin Jefferson ($7,300 DK), who has 40 catches for 670 yards and six scores.

Prediction: Mississippi State just lost to Tennessee. What hope do they have hear? LSU 45, Mississippi State 13

Oregon (-3) at Washington , O/U 50.5, 3:30 PM ET

Oregon stats: 70.5 plays per game (74), 441.2 yards per game (35), 9.8 points allowed per game (4), 272.8 yards allowed per game (7)

Washington stats: 66.7 plays per game (120), 399.8 yards per game (66), 20.5 points allowed per game (27), 378.5 yards allowed per game (49)

I'm expecting a low-scoring game. Washington likes to take their time, as per the number of plays they run. They have an old-fashioned "pro-style" offense with Jacob Eason under center. The Huskies also have a good defense, as they have had to play some ostensibly offensively tenacious teams like Hawaii, USC, and Arizona. Also, the Ducks have lost arguably their best receiver in tight end Jacob Breeland. Meanwhile, Oregon also has one of the top defenses in college football. Eason doesn't have a 300-yard game against an FBS team this year. You do the math.

So what to do here? Honestly, I don't know. I would probably steer clear of this game. With Breeland out, maybe grab receiver Jaylon Redd ($5,300 DK)? On the one hand, he only has 260 yards receiving. On the other hand, he has 26 catches and five touchdowns. He could provide some bang for your buck if he gets some of the targets that would have gone to Breeland.

Prediction: It's a low-scoring game, and Washington gives Oregon a scare. The Ducks defense is just too good, though. Oregon 21, Washington 17

Baylor (+3.5) at Oklahoma State , O/U 66.0 4:00 PM ET

Baylor stats: 68.1 plays per game (87), 467.0 yards per game (21), 18.0 points allowed per game (15), 352.8 yards per game (38)

Oklahoma State stats: 78.5 plays per game (7), 518.0 yards per game (7), 30.2 points allowed per game (69), 434.4 yards allowed per game (82)

This may not be super illustrative, but it's just amusing to me. Baylor's last two games have been against Texas Tech and Kansas State. Oklahoma State's last two games have been against…Texas Tech and Kansas State. No, the Red Raiders and Wildcats didn't pull double duty like they were on two dates at once in a sitcom. The Cowboys are coming off a bye, and also a 45-35 loss to Texas Tech. Baylor is undefeated, and it is doing it with a balance of offense and defense. Oklahoma State does thing a bit differently. They run a ton of plays and Mike Gundy tries to get it done with offense, which probably doesn't help those defensive numbers. This could be the most plays Baylor ends up running in a game just because there will probably be more drives than it is used to, unless the Cowboys find themselves with a ton of possession.

I am going to recommend the top receiver for both these teams in a game where I expect the ball to be flying through the air. For Oklahoma State, that would be Tylan Wallace ($7,400 DK). He has 39 catches for 703 yards and seven touchdowns. On the other side we have Baylor's Denzel Mims ($6,700 DK) who has 32 receptions for 503 yards and five touchdowns.

Prediction: The Cowboys get their offensive numbers, they almost always do, led by Wallace and running back Chuba Hubbard ($8,300). However, the defense gives up even more yards, and points, to Baylor, led by Charlie Brewer ($7,900) throwing the ball to guys like Mims. Baylor stays undefeated for one more week. Baylor 37, Oklahoma State 27

Texas A&M (-6.5) at Mississippi , O/U 56, 7:30 PM ET

Texas A&M stats: 70.7 plays per game (52), 377.6 yards per game (84), 26.6 points allowed per game (53), 350.6 yards allowed per game (37)

Mississippi stats: 74.7 plays per game (30), 435.0 yards per game (38), 27.2 points allowed per game (56), 426.5 yards allowed per game (77)

It's been a brutal stretch for Texas A&M. In its last five games it has had to play Clemson, Auburn, and Alabama. The fact their defensive numbers are still this good is frankly impressive. I imagine the Aggies will breathe a sigh of relief to face a 3-4 team like Ole Miss. The Rebels still have a good offense, though. Ole Miss has been swapping quarterbacks in and out, which means you don't want to get involved in that mess.

The Rebels have allowed 300.4 passing yards per game, so I like the Aggies passing offense in this one. Kellen Mond ($7,400 DK) hasn't had the best season, but the schedule has played into that. It's also a bonus that Mond can do some damage with his legs, as he has rushed for 200 yards and three touchdowns. Also, consider Aggies receiver Jhamon Ausbon ($5,300 DK). While he has only found the end zone twice, he has 37 catches for 506 yards. When you're that active, eventually you tend to score.

Prediction: Ole Miss gives Texas A&M a little scare, but the Aggies end up winning behind the passing game. Kellen Mond ($7,400) is happy to be reminded that you don't have to play a top-10 team every week in college football. Texas A&M 31, Mississippi 21

Florida State (+2) at Wake Forest , O/U 69.0 7:30 PM ET

Florida State stats: 70.5 plays per game (37), 400.0 yards per game (65), 32.2 points allowed per game (88), 464.5 yards allowed per game (106)

Wake Forest stats: 85.3 plays per game (1), 527.2 yards per game (6), 32.0 points allowed per game (86), 460.6 yards allowed per game (101)

Last week, Wake Forest lost to Louisville 62-59. That gets me incredibly excited as a fantasy player. Wake Forest runs more plays per game than any other offense! The Demon Deacons are racking up the offensive numbers. Also, both of these teams are in the bottom 30 in yards allowed. It's iffy defenses combined with offenses that have skilled players. I'm not down on Florida State's offense by any means. I would definitely consider grabbing several players from this contest.

Wake's quarterback Jamie Newman ($7,600) got banged up last week. He's expected to play, but I thought I'd mention that just to be on the safe side. The first time I typed that last sentence, I literally accidentally typed "the sage side," which I think is perhaps a sign I need to recommend Sage Surratt ($7,800 DK). He's been absolutely crushing it, as he has 46 catches for 711 yards and nine touchdowns. On the opposite side of things there's Florida States Tamorrion Terry ($5,600 DK). He's had over 70 yards receiving in each of his last four games with four touchdowns in those contests as well.

Prediction: This could be one of those games where both teams hang 40 points on the board. If Newman is healthy, I think the Demon Deacons get back to their winning ways. Wake Forest 51, Florida State 42

Michigan (+9) at Penn State , O/U 45.5, 7:30 PM ET

Michigan stats: 68.7 plays per game (76), 388.0 yards per game (77), 17.5 points allowed per game (14), 283.7 yards allowed per game (10)

Penn State stats: 70.5 plays per game (80), 424.4 yards per game (42), 8.4 points allowed per game (2), 282.6 yards allowed per game (9)

Call me crazy, but I don't think this one is going to be a shootout. Michigan just played a 10-3 game with Iowa, while Penn State had a 17-12 win over that same Iowa team. These are maybe two of the top 10 defenses in college football, certainly two of the top 15 it would seem. Michigan's defense has been hurt by its offense, especially the turnovers that have led to short fields. That "new look" Wolverines offense just hasn't panned out so far.

This game is the polar opposite of Wake Forest versus Florida State. I wouldn't be surprised if these two teams combine to have fewer than 40 points. Who is worth recommending here? Penn State's freshman running back Noah Cain ($5,300 DK) has had a breakout the last couple of weeks. He's rushed for over 100 yards in each of his last two games. Cain isn't Jonathan Taylor, but we've seen backs pick up some chunks of yards against the Wolverines.

Prediction: Penn State wins by shutting down Michigan's offense, which admittedly hasn't been terribly hard for better defenses. Penn State 21, Michigan 14

Arizona (+10) at USC , O/U 67, 9:30 PM ET

Arizona stats: 73.7 plays per game (28), 467.2 yards per game (20), 31.5 points allowed per game (85), 480.2 yards allowed per game (113)

USC stats: 67.8 plays per game (86), 428.8 yards per game (40), 25.7 points allowed per game (50), 421.8 yards allowed per game (74)

Arizona's offense is even more impressive than it looks based on these numbers, as Khalil Tate ($7,100) and top running back J.J. Taylor ($5,300) have both missed time. At full speed, they are even more potent, mostly in the running game. Of course, there defense is also actually this bad. It's not included in the stats since it was against an FCS team, but the Wildcats even gave up 41 points in Northern Arizona. The Trojans have had their own injury issues on offense, namely at quarterback. Kedon Slovis ($6,300) is back healthy now, though, which helps.

Actually, Slovis  is where I am going to begin. In his return to action, the freshman threw for 245 yards and two touchdowns against Notre Dame on the road. At home against Arizona is a whole different ball game. I think Slovis is the quarterback I'm most in on this week. Speaking of guys who just got healthy, I've got positive feelings about Arizona's Taylor ($5,300 DK) as well. Last year he rushed for 1,434 yards and six touchdowns. He averaged 5.6 yards per carry, and that's his average this season as well.

Prediction: It's your classic high-scoring, defense-optional Pac-12 game. Having Slovis back is enough to give USC the win. USC 37, Arizona 24