DraftKings College Football: Week 11 Main Slate

DraftKings College Football: Week 11 Main Slate

This article is part of our DraftKings College Football series.

Slate Overview

We're treated to a 14  13-game slate this week with Cal-USC being called off amid COVID concerns in Berkeley. It's still a fun slate with plenty of games to target and value to unearth. 

Ohio State (42), Georgia (38), Michigan State (36.25), SMU (34.25) and Iowa State (34.0) check in with the highest implied totals. OSU-Purdue (63.0), Baylor-Oklahoma (62.0), SMU-UCF (61.5), Florida State-Miami (61.0) and Michigan State-Maryland (60.5) have the highest totals, and the middle three of that set all have spreads of seven points or less, so there should be some high-scoring, competitive games to draw from. 

Michigan State's pass defense has been a recurring theme in this year's article, so this sets up well for the traveling Terrapins. SMU, Oklahoma, Miami and Tennessee all have suspect pass defenses but the question lies with whether their respective opponents can take advantage seeing as UCF, Baylor, Florida State and Georgia all have less-than-convincing passing attacks save for maybe Baylor. 

Northwestern has far-and-away the worst run defense on the slate and that's bad news for the Wildcats going on the road to face Wisconsin. There aren't many other run-game sieves out there, so I'll be targeting the top of the board at running back while hunting for value at quarterback and wide receiver. 

DFS Tools

Matchup Info

Position-by-Position Breakdown

Quarterback

Taulia Tagovailoa, Maryland ($5,900) at Michigan State

Did you know that Tagovailoa ranks 9th in passing yards among quarterbacks with nine or fewer games played? Or that he has five 300-yard outings thus far this season, including in back-to-back games? 

Now Tagovailoa takes the show on the road to East Lansing to face a Spartan pass defense that has been frequently analyzed in these main slate articles. In short, Michigan State is terrible against the pass, having allowed 326.7 passing yards per game this season. That's dead last in FBS by nearly 20 yards per game. Duke is the only other team allowing over 300 yards per game through the air. Having Western Kentucky and Purdue on the schedule won't help, but the Spartans are even getting shredded by mediocre aerial attacks. 

With Maryland checking in as 12-point underdogs, the script sets up for a high volume day from Tagovailoa. Even without Dontay Demus (knee) and Jeshaun Jones (leg) out for the season, Tagovailoa has proven he can get it done from a fantasy perspective. Saving at quarterback always opens up some lineup flexibility, and in this case, there's reason to believe Tagovailoa can return significant value against a spotty pass defense.

Will Rogers, Mississippi State ($7,400) @ Auburn

Using a road quarterback at Jordan-Hare can be risky. Auburn is giving up just 195 passing yards per game at home, though its home schedule hasn't challenged it much with the likes of Akron, Alabama State and Georgia State all having played on The Plains. Matt Corral was able to cross the 300-yard threshold against Auburn on the road and Rogers has a chance to do the same.

In fact, Rogers' road splits are extremely impressive. He's completing 75 percent of his passes at 7.0 YPA with a 14:3 TD:INT on the road while averaging 407 passing yards per game. Rogers has attempted fewer than 40 passes just once all season and has attempted 45-or-more passes in every other outing. He hasn't thrown for fewer than 300 yards in any road game. With Mississippi State settling in as 5.5-point underdogs, it wouldn't be surprising for this to be one of Rogers' busiest days of the season in terms of dropbacks. 

The matchup on the road against a ranked Auburn team isn't ideal, but Rogers has proven that he can thrive in this system away from the friendly confines in Starkville. His lone drawback is lack of touchdown volume with 23 in nine games, but his sheer passing volume puts him in position to turn in strong fantasy production. 

Hendon Hooker, Tennessee ($6,500) vs. Georgia

I know. Georgia's defense is pretty good. That doesn't mean Tennessee is dead in the water Saturday, though. Hooker and the Vols are at home in what should be a raucous environment and run an offense that Georgia hasn't seen yet this season. The only offense that's close in terms of tempo is Arkansas, but that was in Athens and the Razorbacks were likely a little overrated at the time. 

Regarding Tennessee, the Vols are 14th in points per game (38.4) and 25th in yards per play (6.52) and Hooker is a big reason why there's been an offensive renaissance in Knoxville. Hooker averages the fourth-most fantasy points per game among quarterbacks on the slate and yet his salary comes in at 19th at his position. There's something to be said for a tough matchup, but this feels like an overcorrection. Hooker is absolutely in the conversation this week at just $6,500. He's mobile -- something Kirby Smart defenses have struggled against in the past -- and Hooker also makes big plays and avoids mistakes. 21 of his 186 pass attempts have gone for 25-or-more yards and he sports an impressive 21:2 TD:INT. 

This might not be Hooker's best week of the season but so much of the field will write him off based on the matchup, so he provides upside relative to salary and could get your lineup some leverage if that upside is realized.  

Running Back

Kenneth Walker, Michigan State ($8,900) vs. Maryland

Walker has been about as automatic as it gets this year, feasting on bad opponents and also stepping up against some of the tougher defenses Michigan State has faced. He has gone over 100 yards in all but two games against FBS competition. In conference games, Walker averages 23 carries for 162 yards (7.01 YPC) and 1.8 rushing touchdowns. That's bad news for Maryland, which is surrendering 186 yards on the ground in Big Ten play. 

There's not much I can say about Walker that you don't already know. I just think this is a prime week to pony up the $8,900 in salary to roster him. It's doable given the value options at quarterback, too. 

Braelon Allen, Wisconsin ($8,200) vs. Northwestern

This might be the chalk play of the week and I am eating the chalk without a second thought. Allen has emerged as the guy in the Wisconsin backfield with 81 carries for 612 yards and five touchdowns over the last five games since stepping into a significant role. Chez Mellusi is out for the season and Jalen Berger is no longer at Wisconsin, so the Badger backfield belongs to Allen.

The matchup couldn't be much better, either, with Northwestern coming to Madison. The Wildcats are giving up 267 rushing yards per game to Big Ten opponents at 5.96 YPC. They've also allowed 21 rushing scores in those six conference games. 

It's worth noting that Allen was seen with both ankles taped for last week's game against Rutgers but he still reeled off 129 yards and a score on 15 carries. We might not see Allen challenge for 20 carries if Wisconsin starts running away with this one, but he should get enough work to make the Northwestern defense pay. I'll have plenty of Allen exposure this week. Julius Davis ($3,000) may climb into the second spot on the depth chart in light of Mellusi's absence and could be a viable min-priced play if Wisconsin wants to lighten Allen's load. Davis had seven carries on nine snaps in his season debut against Rutgers. 

Tre Siggers, SMU ($5,600) vs. UCF

This is a better setup for the SMU offense after it sputtered on the road a week ago in Memphis. The Mustangs have the fourth-highest implied total on the board (34.25) and UCF has one of the weaker defenses on the slate, allowing 155.4 yards per game on the ground.

Ulysses Bentley (ankle) doesn't appear to be up to full speed yet, so Siggers should remain the Mustangs' top option in the backfield. Siggers has seen double-digit carries in each game this season and has five rushing touchdowns in his last five games. He projects as a decent mid-tier target at RB this week. 

Others to Consider

Chris Childers, Indiana ($4,500) vs. Rutgers

Hear me out. Stephen Carr injured his ankle last week against Michigan and is considered questionable as of Thursday. Carr's injury led to Childers seeing his biggest workload (11 carries, 34 yards, one touchdown) of the season. No, those aren't great numbers, but Indiana was completely overmatched against Michigan on the road.

The matchup against Rutgers is much more favorable, especially if Carr is out or limited. Childers should be set up for double-digit carries against a Rutgers run defense that is allowing 186 rushing yards per game in Big Ten play. Keep an eye on the Carr status, but if he's out, Childers suddenly becomes a nice value play. 

Wide Receiver

Target Leaders for the slate 

Rakim Jarrett, Maryland ($4,500) at Michigan State

If you're buying the Tagovailoa pick, Jarrett stands out as a good stacking option. Jarrett leads the Terrapins in every major receiving category, having caught 37 passes for 533 yards and five touchdowns on 56 targets. Chigoziem Okonkwo ($4,200) should draw some interest this week after he racked up 15 targets against Penn State. He's viable, especially if you're fully stacking Maryland's passing game, but I lean Jarrett. Jarrett's explosiveness (9.5 YPT) coupled with a mismatch against the Michigan State corners means he's set up for a solid outing Saturday, especially at $4,500. 

JaVonta Payton, Tennesssee ($3,900) vs. Georgia

Part of the theory behind playing Hooker this week is that his receivers all come in at a heavy discount as well. Cedric Tillman and Velus Jones both see over 5.0 targets per game, which makes them higher floor plays compared to Payton with 3.3 Tar/G. Payton is the big-play threat in this offense, though, having caught 14 of 30 targets for 365 yards and six touchdowns. The deep shots don't always land, hence the sub-50% catch rate, but when they do, they make a huge impact. Tennessee will be aggressive down the field Saturday and Payton is the one I'd project to make a splash play or two. Again, target volume can be hard to come by for Payton, but he makes his opportunities count in a big way. 

Makai Polk, Mississippi State ($7,600) at Auburn

Air Raid offenses can be tricky to solve for DFS because oftentimes there are so many players getting targets it's difficult to pick the right guy on the right week. Polk is an exception, though. The 6-foot-3 junior has a 21 percent share of the Mississippi State targets and is efficient despite the heavy volume, catching 71 percent of them at 7.2 YPT. He has also found the end zone six times. 

Polk has seen 10-or-more targets in seven games and his season-low was six, which came in a game where Miss State flipped the script and went heavy in the run game against Kentucky. 

Polk's target volume and efficiency, along with the stackability with Will Rogers, make him an appealing target on this slate. Jaden Walley ($4,800) is interesting, too, as he ranks second on the team in targets and is slightly more explosive than Polk in his role, averaging 8.1 YPT. 

Bo Melton, Rutgers ($5,000) at Indiana

This game isn't the star of the slate by any means. It's two bad teams squaring off late in the season and it has the third-lowest total (42.5) on the slate. That can work to our advantage, though. 

Melton, when healthy, draws an average of 31 percent of Rutgers' target share. He's healthy now, having drawn 10 targets in back-to-back weeks and projects to be busy again Saturday against a middling Indiana secondary that allows 250 yards per game through the air. 

The one possible sticking point here is that starting quarterback Noah Vedral has been banged up of late and exited last week's blowout loss to Wisconsin. If he's out, it's trickier to justify using Melton. If Vedral is in, though, Melton stands to rack up plenty of catches which is something to consider in a full-point PPR format. 

Ty Fryfogle ($4,600) is a nice pivot off of Melton from the other side of this game. If Vedral is out for Rutgers but Michael Penix (shoulder) is back for Indiana, Fryfogle becomes the PPR target du jour from this game over Melton.  

The author(s) of this article may play in daily fantasy contests including – but not limited to – games that they have provided recommendations or advice on in this article. In the course of playing in these games using their personal accounts, it's possible that they will use players in their lineups or other strategies that differ from the recommendations they have provided above. The recommendations in this article do not necessarily reflect the views of RotoWire. John McKechnie plays in daily fantasy contests using the following accounts: Fanduel: mckech3; DraftKings: mckech3.
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ABOUT THE AUTHOR
John McKechnie
John is the 2016 and 2021 FSWA College Writer of the Year winner. He is a Maryland native and graduate of the University of Georgia. He's been writing for RotoWire since 2014.
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