College Capper: Free College Football Picks this Week
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Chris' Picks
Week 1, for me at least, has really become a guessing game. There's too much coaching turnover, too much secrecy, and a lack of official depth charts that don't mean much. Additionally, there are far too many transfers to really get a feel for a team and their continuity. There's also the excitement and eagerness of jumping in on the action. I plan to go slow, perhaps starting with half-unit bets, enjoy the holiday weekend, and form some opinions to take advantage of as the season progresses.
South Dakota (+16.5) at Iowa State
Strictly a hunch play. Iowa State didn't look terrific against Kansas State last Saturday, particularly offensively, as they're replacing their top receivers from last year, and that's going to take some time. They also had to travel home from Ireland, and have a looming rivalry game against Iowa next week. Sure, it's a home opener, but this feels like a letdown/look-ahead spot. South Dakota is a solid FCS opponent with a quality offense and returning QB Aidan Bouman. So long as this stays north of two touchdowns, I'll bite.
Alabama (-13.5) at Florida State
This feels like low-hanging fruit/too obvious, but I'll bite. I'm not sure how much new FSU QB Tommy Castellanos helps the 'Noles, and his surrounding skill players are questionable at best. Alabama breaks in a new QB in Ty Simpson and will be without Jam Miller, but their talent at wideout is terrific, and we know the defense will be salty. This could be competitive early, but I don't see a 2-10 team from a year ago improving enough to hang with 'Bama.
Texas A&M (-23.5) vs. UTSA
I usually try to stay away from these big lines opening weekend, but this looks like a spot for the Aggies to flex. They have plenty of talent coming back on both sides, and while UTSA does too, their history in these types of games is terrible. They lost 56-7 at Texas last season, 45-14 at Tennessee in 2023 and 41-20 at Texas in 2022. They are returning a good chunk of their offense, but they're overmatched. It's also a night game where Kyle Field will be rocking. After some significant discrepancies in lines across books initially, they have evened out more, but I'm seeing this as high as (-24.5). That's a bit more dicey, so be sure to shop.
Clemson (-3.5) vs. LSU
I'm not on the Garrett Nussmeier train. He played four road games last season, went 2-2 thanks to some questionable calls at South Carolina, and had a 5:4 TD:INT ratio. No, they won't be intimidated by the atmosphere in Clemson, but that's not a sterling record. I am, however, buying Clemson. Cade Klubnik, the No. 1 quarterback in our rankings for 2025, was elite last season, and his legs can help offset the Tigers' lack of proven running backs. And the weapons at his disposal are incredible with Antonio Williams, Bryant Wesco and T.J. Moore. Clemson's defense returns a ton and should take another step forward, allowing them to win by a touchdown or more.
Miami (+2.5) vs. Notre Dame (Sunday)
Homer alert, as loyal readers know, I'm a 'Canes fan. Notre Dame hasn't won in Miami since 1977. They're starting an inexperienced quarterback in a hostile setting that will be hot and humid throughout. They have an elite secondary, which is a concern given Miami's receiving inexperience. But Carson Beck is a massive edge for Miami over CJ Carr, and I believe had he stayed at Georgia or transferred anywhere other than Miami, he'd be getting more praise. Miami's defense will be vastly improved. This is going to be a slugfest won up front; perhaps under 49.5 is the better play. But I look for a back-and-forth game where Beck makes plays late to boost the home side.
Last season: 37-36-2
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Greg's Picks
And just like that, we're back at it. Another college football season is upon us, and I, for one, couldn't be more excited.
We got the ball rolling this past week with a handful of games, but the action really heats up starting this week.
As always, unless you find a hidden gem early in the season, it's wise to be conservative to start the season. Once the trends emerge after a few weeks, then you can open up the throttle a bit.
Okay, let's get to it, and good luck to everyone this season!
Tennessee (-13.5) vs. Syracuse
A lot of moving parts in this game, with both teams replacing a lot of talent, but I have a feeling that the Vols will have an easier time adjusting to life without their QB than the Orange. Kyle McCord was solid this past season, and I don't think that the Orange will be able to replace that production, at least not right away. Tennessee, meanwhile, has plenty of production to replace as well, but as you might guess, the team from the SEC has plenty of guys waiting for their turn. This is a neutral site game, but being in Atlanta, you can expect a partisan crowd in favor of the Vols. As such, they'll make life hard for the new QB at Syracuse and force enough mistakes to turn this game into a rout.
Under (47.5) 
Ohio State vs. 
Texas
As a fan, I like to see this game right out of the gate; as a handicapper, not so much. The problem with picking a side here is that there has been so much turnover on the offensive side of the ball for both teams that there's no way to tell who has the advantage. It would appear that Texas does, and its QB got some valuable experience under center, with this team, last year, but still, he's new to starting for this team. Ohio State, meanwhile, has to replace even more talent on offense. The WRs are still there, but can we trust QB Julian Sayin yet? There aren't nearly as many questions on the defensive side for both teams, which is why I'm leaning towards a low-scoring affair between these two powerhouses.
Old Dominion (+23.5) at Indiana
If you know me, you know that I rely on the intangibles a lot more than most. In this case, I'm a little worried about Indiana to start this season. The Hoosiers had a great 2024 season but fell flat in the playoff. The question now is, was last year a fluke, or do they have something real here? While I don't think this past season was a fluke, I do think that everything seemed to fall into place for them this past season, and that's a tough accomplishment to achieve in consecutive seasons. They also have to replace the starting QB and RB, and while I'm sure they picked up plenty of talent in the portal, the fact of the matter is, the guys that were starting during that magical season are gone. As for Old Dominion, well, there's not much to say; this pick is all based on expectations for Indiana and how it might be challenging to meet them this season.
Over 49.5 
Florida State vs. Alabama
As is the case with almost every team in the country, both of these teams have a lot to replace on offense, which might make you wonder why I'm going over in this spot. Well, unlike the Ohio State–Texas game, where I'm pretty confident that both defenses will end the season among the best, I'm not as confident here. Yes, Alabama certainly has a better chance of ranking higher on defense, but that doesn't mean that unit will be sharp to start the season. What I'm expecting is improved offenses from both of these squads, and if that's the case, it won't take much to get over this relatively small number.
Notre Dame (-2.5) at Miami
Once again, a lot of movement on both sides, but still plenty of players returning. In Notre Dame's case, getting back Jeremiyah Love is huge, especially in a game like this where they'll need to take the crowd out of the game. The defense should be solid again, which is needed on the road. As for Miami, the Hurricanes grabbed Carson Beck in the transfer portal, but I'm not sure how that will go. Sure, he was good at Georgia, but we're talking about the best team in the country for the time he was there. Can Miami support him like that? Even if it does work, will it work right away? I'm not so sure, which is why I'm on the team that looks to be ready to hit the ground running this season vs. the one that might need some time to gel.
Last Season 37-38-0
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Jeff's Picks
I ended the 2024 season in the black, and my goal this year is lofty. Anyone who tells you that they nail 80 percent of their picks is either pulling your leg or only looking at a small sample size. It's rare for even the sharpest pundits to see a 70 percent win rate, and that's what I am aiming for. I think we have some clear avenues for profit here in Week 1.
Texas (+2) @ Ohio State
Columbus isn't a very hospitable place to play, but I think the Longhorns have experience on their side in what should be a hotly contested rematch. Arch Manning finally gets a chance to hold the reins full-time, and he definitely has the edge over Julien Sayin, who got the job under center only recently. He has the services of Jeremiah Smith, who is arguably the best wide receiver in the country, but the Buckeyes are filling a lot of holes left empty from 2024, and OC Brin Hartline will be calling the plays after Chip Kelly's departure. Meanwhile, Texas has a solid defensive core returning, and Manning has already proven how explosive he can be on offense. It's hard to believe that the number one team is the underdog, but I am gladly taking them in the marquee game of the week.
Under 51.5 
Syracuse @ Tennessee
Both teams are ushering in new quarterbacks and running backs, and it's reasonable to assume that the potency of both teams will be slow out of the gate. The 51.5 O/U is pretty ambitious considering the scenario, especially when you take Tennessee's defense into account. They have a lot of returning starters in the group, and the linebackers should be able to curb any fanciness that might come from the Orange. Steve Angeli has some upside as Syracuse's new QB, but he could be in for a rough day against the Vols. Both teams will be working out some offensive kinks, so I'll sweat the under.
Indiana -23.5 vs. Old Dominion
Indiana's win margin was one of the widest in the country last season, and it's pretty clear that they will keep pressing the gas and post a huge number here. No one will be sleeping on them this year, but they have something to prove after many pundits said they had no business being in the College Football Playoff. They'll need every win to look decisive, and they should continue the non-conference trend of big-time blowouts. The Hoosiers also got some offensive line upgrades through the portal, and Cal transfer Fernando Mendoza should get max protection as he tries to replicate the team's offensive firepower.
Alabama -13.5 @ Florida State
Rain is in the forecast for Tallahassee, and I think that plays to the Tide's favor. Mike Norvell is in he hot seat, and they are hoping BC transfer Tommy Castellanos will be the quarterback to bring them back into relevance after an awful 2024 season. The Seminoles went heavy into the portal and should look a lot better this season (albeit a low bar), but Alabama's defense should be able to keep things in check. The Tide is also dealing with some new offensive pieces, but they have every confidence in QB Ty Simpson, who has a lot of talent and was patient while waiting for Jalen Milroe to leave town. Some even think that Simpson is an upgrade from Milroe, as the junior has a strong arm and can also keep defenses guessing with his feet. I'm very curious to see how this Alabama team will perform, but there's no question that the defense will win the day here. I was sheepish when this line was -14, but the hook has me seeing red.
TCU -3.5 vs.North Carolina
I couldn't resist betting here. The Bill Belichick era in Chapel Hill should be an excellent storyline throughout the season, but the team has numerous question marks. They have 40 transfers coming in, and there's no indication that the overall talent of the team is something Belichick can turn around overnight. Meanwhile, TCU is a legit threat to win the Big 12 and has a great quarterback in Josh Hoover. You look up and down this roster, and you see a team that has a shot at a playoff berth. It would undoubtedly be a feel-good story if Belichick could pull this one out, but it isn't happening.
Last Season: 42-33-0 (56%)
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