Bowl Season: Confidence Picks

Bowl Confidence Picks

Welcome back for another exciting slate of bowl games to round out the 2017 season. For those who are unfamiliar with the format, confidence picks are straight up rather than against the spread, so we're just picking winners here and ranking them from most (39- FAU) to least (1-Virginia) confident. The spreads are included as a reference. For clarity, the team I side with is always listed first in the matchup and written in bold.

If you have any specific questions, please feel free to ask in the comments section.

If you're playing in any bowl season fantasy leagues, our positional rankings are also available under 'Weekly Rankings'

39. Florida Atlantic (-22.5) vs. Akron (Cheribundi Tart Cherry Boca Raton Bowl, Dec. 19)

Lane Kiffin's Owls check in as the 12th best team in the nation according to Football Outsiders' S&P+ metric. And the Zips? 110th. FAU's high-powered attack, led by touchdown machine Devin Singletary, should have no trouble putting up points on a vulnerable Akron defense. This seems like a mismatch, and Vegas' spread agrees with that sentiment, so I'm casting my highest confidence pick to Florida Atlantic.

38. Wisconsin (-6.5) vs. Miami (Capital One Orange Bowl, Dec. 30)

I swear this has nothing to do with the amount of Wisconsin tap water I ingest on a daily basis; the Badgers are legit. Miami, on the other hand, had its doubters throughout the year but looked primed for a potential playoff berth heading into Thanksgiving weekend. Well, a bad loss at Pitt followed by a no-show against Clemson gave those doubters some vindication. Wisconsin is a tough matchup for the 'Canes thanks to its elite run game coupled with a stout defense. Miami was already going to have a tough time moving the ball on Wisconsin at full strength, but missing Ahmmon Richards, Christopher Herndon, and Mark Walton makes this an uphill climb.

37. Northwestern (-7) vs. Kentucky (Franklin American Mortgage Music City Bowl, Dec. 29)

Seeing Northwestern in a bowl isn't the novelty it once was, but seeing it favored by a touchdown over an SEC opponent is something else. What's crazier is that I agree with Vegas here. Northwestern is facing a Kentucky defense that ranks 93rd against the run and 95th against the pass while Kentucky will try to move the ball on the nation's 20th ranked run defense. Kentucky running back Benny Snell can run on anyone, but if this becomes a situation where UK has to rely on Stephen Johnson and the passing game, this could go downhill in a hurry for Big Blue.

36. Florida State (-15.5) vs. Southern Mississippi (Walk On's Independence Bowl, Dec. 27)

Florida State playing in a bowl with "Walk On" in the name has enough irony to where I'll willingly watch this entire game, no matter how ugly the product on the field may be. Now, Southern Miss isn't the pushover that the spread implies, but Florida State's talent advantage can't be understated. The 'Noles played a subdued brand of football for much of the season, but now that the pall of the Jimbo Fisher saga is gone, look for Florida state to come out and end the season on a high note with a relatively comfortable win.

35. Arkansas State (-3.5) vs. Middle Tennessee

The spread suggests that this is a relatively even matchup, but I'm not sure I agree. S&P+ has the Red Wolves as the No. 23 team in the country while MTSU checks in at 71. That's a pretty significant discrepancy. Toss in the fact that Middle Tennessee is missing top playmaker Richie James and tack on the likelihood of quarterback Justice Hansen putting up huge numbers for the Red Wolves and I'll confidently side with Arkansas State.

34. Ohio (-7.5) vs. UAB (Bahamas Bowl, Dec. 22)

The Blazers are one of the best stories in college football this season, having reeled off eight wins in the program's first season back from a two-year hiatus. That said, Ohio presents a very tough matchup for the Blazers. Quarterback Nathan Rourke had the Bobcats looking like the best team in the MAC at times this year, accounting for 37 total touchdowns and he might present too big a challenge as a runner and a passer for the Blazers to stop.

33. Western Kentucky (-6.5) vs. Georgia State (Autonation Cure Bowl, Dec. 16)

The 'Tops aren't as trustworthy as they were under coach Jeff Brohm, but this is still a spot where Western Kentucky should win handily. Georgia State, to its credit, has been competitive all season, but the Panthers are still arguably the worst bowl eligible team in this year's cycle. The Panthers rank 11th against the pass per S&P+, and when they're going against an offense with Mike White at the helm, it does not project to go well for them. This should be a high-scoring affair but look for Western Kentucky to cruise to a victory in the end.

32. Michigan (-7.5) vs. South Carolina (Outback Bowl, Jan. 1)

This game will conjure up memories of Jadeveon Clowney erasing Michigan's Vincent Smith from the face of the earth, but things will be different this time between the Wolverines and the Gamecocks. Michigan has been a bit Jekyll and Hyde this season, but the Wolverines are scary when they're playing well. South Carolina, meanwhile, is unspectacular across the board and the loss of Deebo Samuel took a lot of the juice out of its passing attack. Michigan has its own issues on offense as well -- namely at quarterback -- but the Wolverine defense is going to make life tough on Jake Bentley and company. Michigan should win in a low-scoring, low-tempo bout.

31. Oklahoma State (-4.5) vs. Virginia Tech (Camping World Bowl, Dec. 28)

The Hokies started the year looking like a top 10 team, but Virginia Tech's shaky final month of the season gives some reason for concern heading into a matchup against a veteran-heavy Oklahoma State squad. Virginia Tech didn't just lose to Miami and Georgia Tech in back to back weeks; it also managed to barely squak by Pittsburgh at home before ending the year with a blah 10-0 win over Virginia. Oklahoma State, led by seniors Mason Rudolph and James Washington, has the fourth-best offense in the country according to S&P+. If this game turns into a track meet, and I'm betting it will, Oklahoma State will have the distinct advantage considering Virginia Tech lacks to explosiveness to play catch-up.

30. Louisville (-6.5) vs. Mississippi State (Taxslayer Bowl, Dec. 30)

Louisville has the best player on the field in this game with Lamar Jackson, but its roster is flawed in several other key areas. Unfortunately, Mississippi State is unlikely to exploit those flaws with star quarterback Nick Fitzgerald (ankle) out and head coach Dan Mullen out on the recruiting trail for Florida. The drop off to Keytaon Thompson was already going to be tough for the Bulldogs to overcome, but Mullen's departure makes this an even worse spot for MSU.

29. Troy (-7) vs. North Texas (R+L Carriers New Orleans Bowl, Dec. 16)

North Texas was far better than anyone could have expected this season, but there's plenty to be gleaned from its losses. The Mean Green losses came by an average of 25.3 points, and those all came against arguably their toughest opponents. Troy fits the description as a team that can give North Texas problems with a methodical offensive attack combined with a stingy defense. Also, North Texas missing star running back Jeffery Wilson is a massive blow to the offense that may be too much to overcome.

28. Ohio State (-7) vs. USC (Goodyear Cotton Bowl Classic, Dec. 29)

While I agree with the committee's decision to put Alabama in the No. 4 spot in the playoff, there's no denying Ohio State had a strong case of being there as well. USC actually had a somewhat legit argument in its own right, but Ohio State remains the superior team top to bottom. S&P+ actually has the Buckeyes as its No.1 rated team...21 spots ahead of where it puts the Trojans. Ohio State's defense is going to cause a world of problems for USC and a suddenly turnover-prone Sam Darnold. When Ohio State has the ball, it has too many dangerous players for USC to account for; sell out on stopping J.K. Dobbins? Well there goes Johnnie Dixon beating coverage for a deep touchdown. Ohio State is set to make a statement in Dallas.

27. Auburn (-9.5) vs. Central Florida (Chick-Fil-A Peach Bowl)

I would have entertained the thought of Central Florida pulling off the upset if Scott Frost was staying at UCF and there were no distractions. However, he's got one foot out the door as he's trying to get things in order at Nebraska while putting UCF through bowl prep, and that is unlikely to end well for the Knights. Auburn has looked sluggish in some of its bowl games under Gus Malzahn, and taking on a Group of Five team likely isn't something to put a ton of fire in its collective belly, but the Tigers' overall talent edge is simply too much to ignore.

26. Wake Forest (-3) vs. Texas A&M (Belk Bowl, Dec 29)

Texas A&M has been difficult to figure out all season; one week the Aggies are hanging tight with Alabama, another week they're getting stomped at home by Mississippi State. Wake Forest, on the other hand, has been reliably consistent for much of the season and the Deacs have shown that they can still put up points despite Greg Dortch's absence. In fact, the Wake Forest offense checks in at 30th overall according to S&P+, marking an 80-spot jump from 2016 with largely the same personnel. Also, Texas A&M losing Kevin Sumlin gives the coaching edge to Dave Clawson, who is certainly looking for a signature victory over an SEC opponent to put on his resume.

25. Toledo (-7.5) vs. Appalachian State (Dollar General Bowl, Dec 23)

These teams met in the Camellia Bowl last year with Appalachian State coming out on top by a score of 31-28. While there are many similarities between these teams from a year ago, starting with quarterbacks Logan Woodside and Taylor Lamb, I anticipate a different result this time around. Toledo checks in at 16th overall in S&P+ thanks to an outstanding offense that has totally reloaded despite losing Kareem Hunt to the NFL and Cody Thompson to a broken leg. The Rockets have the 11th-highest scoring offense in the country and Appalachian State's defense is a step down from what it was a year ago. It'll be a competitive game, but Toledo is just a cut above where Appalachian State is right now.

24. USF (-2.5) vs. Texas Tech (Birmingham Bowl, Dec. 23)

This is the type of game that makes me long for the days of college DFS. This game would have been a goldmine between Quinton Flowers, Nic Shimonek, Keke Coutee, Dylan Cantrell, and Marquez Valdez-Scantling. Alas, we press on with our bowl pools. Now, Texas Tech's defense isn't the complete laughing stock it usually is, but it's still in the bottom half of FBS teams. It's tough to stop South Florida's attack even with a competent defense, so this could spell trouble for Texas Tech. Ball security will be of the utmost importance as both USF and Texas Tech have ball-hawking defenses; Texas Tech ranks sixth in total takeaways while South Florida is tied for 26th. In the end, Quinton Flowers gets the win in his final collegiate game.

23. Missouri (-3) vs. Texas (Academy Sports + Outdoors Texas Bowl, Dec. 27)

Missouri plays the most Big 12 style of any SEC team, so its scheme won't have anything Texas hasn't seen before. However, Missouri runs its offense about as well as any Big 12 team not named Oklahoma or Oklahoma State. That alone is going to be an issue for a Texas team that'll be missing some star power on defense. Missouri's offense is loaded with a talented running back corps (Ish Witter, Larry Rountree) to go with receivers J'Mon Moore and Emanuel Hall alongside touchdown machine Albert Okwuegbunam. Texas, meanwhile, has struggled to find any offensive identity this season, so even though Missouri has its own deficiencies on defense, the Longhorns might not be able to take advantage. Missouri gets the win to finish the year on a seven-game winning streak.

22. San Diego State (-7.5) vs. Army (Lockheed Martin Armed Forces Bowl, Dec. 23)

If not for San Diego State's Rashaad Penny, this game would be the football equivalent of eating a Thanksgiving dinner laced with sleeping pills as both teams rank near the bottom of the FBS in terms of tempo (SDSU 101st, Army 110th). Fortunately, we do have Penny, so what would've been an unwatchable game now becomes decent background noise while you enjoy your Saturday night. The edge here goes to the Aztecs as they'll be facing an Army run defense that ranks among the FBS' worst.

21. Utah (-7) vs. West Virginia (Zaxby's Heart of Dallas Bowl, Dec. 26)

The Will Grier injury is a big reason why Utah (6-6) enters this game as a touchdown favorite. Grier's likely absence can't be understated; In his first year as a starter at West Virginia, Grier threw 34 touchdowns in 11 games. West Virginia put up 31 points on Oklahoma with Chris Chugunov at the helm, but the Sooners had put the game away in the early going and coasted the rest of the way. Assuming that it's Chugunov again in the bowl game, West Virginia's deep receiving corps could be neutralized against Utah's tough secondary. Now, Utah has a quarterback issue in its own right with Tyler Huntley dinged up, but the Utes' backup (Troy Williams) has plenty of starting experience.This game won't be as good as it could've been if both sides were healthy, but Utah is set up to get the win here against a West Virginia club that will struggle in Grier's absence.

20. Purdue (+3.5) vs. Arizona (Foster Farms Bowl, Dec. 27)

This line struck me as odd. Did everyone forget that Arizona got beat handily its last two games while Purdue got off the mat with solid wins over Iowa and Indiana? The Khalil Tate honeymoon seems to have ended with defenses selling out to stop him on the ground. He's managed just 60 rushing yards in the last two games and Purdue's top priority will be emulating the Oregon and Arizona State defenses that figured out how to stop him. Purdue's offense isn't a work of art by any means, but Arizona can make it look like a well-oiled machine considering the Wildcats rank 114th defensively in S&P+. I'll take Purdue here in a minor upset.

19. North Carolina State (-6) vs. Arizona State (Hyundai Sun Bowl, Dec. 29):

The Pack has one of the most balanced attacks in the nation with an ability to gash the opposition on the ground with speedster Nyheim Hines, or go to the air with Ryan Finley distributing the ball to Kelvin Harmon and Jaylen Samuels. Arizona State's defense, meanwhile, isn't a whole lot better than the mess it usually is, so it's fair to expect NC State to move the ball ease. On the flip side, Arizona State's offensive line has been a sieve this year, giving up 38 sacks (122nd in FBs) while NC State has a fearsome pass rush headlined by future first rounder Bradley Chubb. The Sun Devils should be able to keep this game competitive despite the tough matchup, but their defense will ultimately be their undoing.

18. Oregon (-7.5) vs. Boise State (Las Vegas Bowl, Dec. 16)

I'd be more wary of siding with Oregon here had it not been for Mario Cristobal taking over coaching duties from Willie Taggart, but a Cristobal-led team with Justin Herbert controlling the offense should be enough for the Ducks to take down the Broncos. In Herbert's six full games, Oregon averaged 53.3 points. That's a staggering number that'll be tough to reach against Boise State's defense, but it shows just how explosive the Ducks are when Herbert is stressing the defense, which opens lanes for Royce Freeman to do damage. Boise State is good enough to hang with Oregon, but not quite good enough to beat the Ducks outright.

17. Michigan State (+2.5) vs. Washington State (San Diego County Credit Union Bowl, Dec. 28)

Something seemed off when the opening line had Wazzu favored by 4.5, and the spread's subsequent movement implies that Michigan State is trending in the right direction. Washington State just dismissed two of its top receivers, Tavares Martin and Isaiah Johnson-Mack, which is going to be tough to compensate for against the Spartans' aggressive defense. Tempo is going to play a huge factor in this matchup as Washington State ranks third in the nation in plays per game (84.3) but Michigan State ranks 10th in plays per game allowed. Whichever team that can control the pace will have the edge, and I'm betting that Michigan State will be able to win that battle against a hamstrung Washington State attack.

16. TCU (-2.5) vs. Stanford (Valero Alamo Bowl, Dec. 28)

Stanford is a team that does a few things very well. For instance, Bryce Love can win a game almost single-handedly. The problem is TCU does more things very well. TCU might not have a Bryce Love, but the Horned Frogs are remarkably balanced offensively (26 rush TD, 25 pass TD). Defensively, TCU is equipped to slow Love thanks to coach Gary Patterson's game planning ability coupled with the Horned Frogs' collective speed. This might end up being the best non-New Year's Six game, and Stanford's style can frustrate most Big 12 teams; however, TCU isn't built like the standard run n' shoot Big 12 squad. Look for TCU to get the win and get the cover (if you're into that sort of thing).

15. Northern Illinois (+5) vs. Duke (Quick Lane Bowl, Dec 26)

A matchup befitting Tuesday afternoon on the day after Christmas, Northern Illinois-Duke has all the intrigue of a freshly painted wall. Duke is getting a lot of love in the sports books with the line inflating from 2.5 to 5, but something about the Blue Devils makes them tough to trust in this spot. Northern Illinois is much better than most people realize, but #MACtion devotees know the Huskies are no slouch. The Huskies' defense grades out at No.13 in S&P+ and a big reason behind that ranking is Sutton Smith, who led the nation in sacks (14.0) this year. Duke's leaky offensive line (27.0 sacks allowed) is in a bad spot here going up against an NIU front that tied for fourth in the nation in sacks with 41. An under-duress Daniel Jones is a mistake-prone Daniel Jones, and that could play a huge role in a NIU upset victory.

14. Iowa (-3) vs. Boston College (New Era Pinstripe Bowl, Dec. 27)

There's enough star power in this matchup between Iowa's Akrum Wadley and Josh Jackson along with BC super freshman AJ Dillon to give this game some juice. This sets up as a fairly even matchup with both teams with similar philosophies intent on establishing the run and stopping the opposition's passing attack. Look for this to be a ground-heavy game as a result, but Iowa's edge at quarterback ought to be enough to give the Hawkeyes the victory.

13. Houston (-2.5) vs. Fresno State (Hawaii Bowl, Dec. 24)

This is one of the tougher games to distill, but it comes down to Houston's offense versus Fresno State's defense -- which ranks 15th in defense per S&P+. Houston has an X-Factor in D'Eriq King, however, and he could be the main difference maker. Since taking over at quarterback, King has led the Cougs to a 3-1 mark with a win over a then-undefeated USF team while racking up 12 total touchdowns. Fresno State has outperformed all realistic expectations and will make this one of the more competitive games on the slate, but Houston's quick-strike ability gives the Cougs the edge. Also, noted superhuman/defensive lineman Ed Oliver plays for Houston. Just in case you were on the fence.

12. Notre Dame (+3) vs. LSU (Citrus Bowl Presented by Overton's)

This may seem like a high confidence play for such a (projected) even matchup, but there's some rationale behind backing the Irish. Notre Dame is the more balanced team, ranking in the top-30 in both offense and defense. It's easy to forget that this was once a team that looked like a lock to make the playoff. With LSU, there aren't many warts, but that offense can go quiet at times. LSU did manage to score 30-or-more points in each of its final three games, but those came against some of the weaker defenses in the SEC West. I'll side with Notre Dame's balanced approach and superior offense to eke out a narrow victory.

11. SMU (-5) vs. Louisiana Tech (DXL Frisco Bowl, Dec. 20)

SMU would be much higher on the list if Chad Morris was still roaming the sidelines, but the Ponies have an absolutely electric offense still in place. Ben Hicks leads the charge, distributing the ball to future NFL receiver Courtland Sutton, elite slot receiver Trey Quinn, and big-play James Proche. SMU has also shown some competence running the ball...and that's where it could really hurt Louisiana Tech. The Bulldogs have the 124th-rated run defense in S&P+. That is the worst mark of any bowl eligible team this year. A mix of Xavier Jones and Ke'Mon Freeman gashing Louisiana Tech while the Bulldogs try to account for Sutton, Quinn, and Proche seems like a likely scenario. Louisiana Tech certainly has a respectable offense run by J'Mar Smith, and SMU's defense is underwhelming in its own right, but the Ponies have too much firepower to take the loss in their backyard.

10. Temple (-7) vs. Florida International (Bad Boy Mowers Gasparilla Bowl, Dec. 21)

The best part about this game is the name. The worst part is FIU's Thomas Owens not getting to show out in his final collegiate game. Everything else? Well I'd hesitate to say Temple covers that spread, but the Owls still look to be the better side here. Go with Temple here, just don't tie a bunch of confidence points to those Owls.

9. Marshall (+5.5) vs. Colorado State (Gildan New Mexico Bowl, Dec. 16)

This is one of my favorite under-the-radar matchups of bowl season between a pair of quality Group of Five teams with similar strengths. Marshall's Chase Litton and CSU's Nick Stevens combine for one of the better quarterback duels on the slate. It's tough to assign much confidence one way or the other on this one because the teams are more evenly matched than the spread suggests. Even if you side with Colorado State here, keep it at 10 or less. I give Marshall the edge here thanks to its defense that ranks 22nd in S&P+ and will stifle a Ram offense that hasn't seen a defense of that caliber since opening conference play.

8. Memphis (-3.5) vs. Iowa State (Autozone Liberty Bowl, Dec. 30)

Iowa State had a remarkable season, pulling off victories over Oklahoma and TCU along with a near-upset of Oklahoma State. Memphis had a great run, too, knocking off a Josh Rosen-led UCLA team and nearly beating undefeated UCF in the AAC Title Game. Both teams have offenses featuring great receivers -- Iowa State's Allen Lazard and Memphis' Anthony Miller -- that make this one of the more intriguing non-playoff matchups this season. While Iowa State has seen enough explosive offenses to where it won't be caught off guard by Memphis, preparation and execution are two different things. Memphis' porous defense will allow Iowa State to keep pace, but the Tigers will pull it out in the end.

7. UCLA (+2.5) vs. Kansas State (Cactus Bowl, Dec. 26)

The Josh Rosen factor can't be ignored here, especially considering Kansas State's uncharacteristically poor secondary play this season that has the Wildcats ranked 87th against the pass in S&P+. Kansas State has also struggled to control the opposing team's tempo, ranking 96th in plays allowed. The Wildcats' physical attack should make Bruin fans nervous, but not too nervous as Kansas State might not have the explosiveness to play catch-up should UCLA build an early lead. Skylar Thompson is the X-factor that could turn this game on its head, however.

6. Central Michigan (PK) vs. Wyoming (Idaho Famous Potato Bowl, Dec. 22):

This is a tough game to get a clear read on, especially with the uncertainty surrounding Wyoming quarterback Josh Allen's status. If Allen sits (which would be the prudent move considering his potential draft stock), Central Michigan has the advantage.

5. Georgia (-2) vs. Oklahoma (Rose Bowl, Jan. 1)

The Granddaddy of Them All houses one of this season's playoff showdowns with Oklahoma taking on Georgia. Oklahoma saddles up with newly minted Heisman winner, Baker Mayfield and a band of unbelievably talented skill position players like Hollywood Brown, CeeDee Lamb, Mark Andrews and a stable of running backs. On the other side, Georgia's bread is buttered with a strong run game and a relentless defense. There isn't a defense in the country that can completely shut down Oklahoma's offense, but Georgia can frustrate it at the very least. If Georgia can sustain drives with its run game and keep Mayfield on the sidelines, the Bulldogs should advance to the College Football Championship.

4. Washington (+2) vs. Penn State (Playstation Fiesta Bowl, Dec. 30)

According to Covers.com a whopping 70 percent of the money is on Penn State to cover two points. Maybe Chris Peterson had a point about Washington not getting enough exposure because while the spread may be fair, the lopsided wagers are perplexing. Washington is an excellent team complete with a sturdy defense, a reliable quarterback, and a running back in Myles Gaskin who is enjoying a breakout season. Penn State, of course, is driven by Saquon Barkley, who is likely playing in his final collegiate game. Barkley, along with quarterback Trace McSorley, will be a tough test for the Huskies, and Penn State's defense will be a chore for Washington as well. Still, I give a slight lean to Washington but would not be surprised if Penn State comes out on top. Hence the low point total given here.

3. Utah State (-4) vs. New Mexico State (Nova Home Loans Arizona Bowl, Dec. 29)

Anyone who definitively tells you what's going to happen in this game is either a snake oil salesman or a premium subscriber to ESPN 8 The Ocho.

2. Clemson (+2) vs. Alabama (Allstate Sugar Bowl, Jan. 1)

To steal a line from Jon Rothstein, "Betting against Alabama is like betting against Christian Bale in a Batman movie." Let's pause for a second, though. Has this Alabama team really been as good as its other title teams? The Iron Bowl sticks out as a glaring example of the Tide's weaknesses, particularly on offense. The second Alabama had to play catch-up, the playbook went out the window and it turned into Jalen Hurts dropping back, seeing if Calvin Ridley was open 40 yards down the field, then tucking and running. Clemson's offense is good enough to where Alabama won't be able to sit on a one-score lead with any sort of comfort. Adding on, Clemson's defense is just as good as Alabama's -- if not better. This game has the look of another classic between these two programs in a rubber match, but Clemson's overall depth and offensive advantage will allow the Tigers to advance to the Championship.

1. Virginia (-1) vs. Navy (Military Bowl presented by Northrop Grumman, Dec. 28)

This is a matchup between two teams that peaked in October and limped down the stretch as both Virginia and Navy enter this game on three-game losing skids. When a service academy/option team is in the equation, it makes the outcome all the more unpredictable. The line movement has me convinced that Virginia is the side to go with here. Navy opened as 3.5-point favorites and is now a one-point 'dog. The Midshipmen have struggled to establish an identity at quarterback, mixing Malcolm Perry and Zach Abey with frustrating results. Also, Virginia has some recent familiarity defending the option having beaten Georgia Tech in November.