This article is part of our College Football Picks series.
College Football Picks: Memphis vs. Navy Best Bets
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We have some AAC conference action Thursday night in Memphis. The Tigers, still trying to regain the status of an upper-level Group of Five team after Mike Norvell left, are hosting a Navy team that has seen better days as well. When an academy team, and the triple option, comes into town, it always requires a tweaking of one's expectations, but what are the betting possibilities for Thursday?
Memphis vs. Navy Betts Odds for Week 3
Spread: Memphis -14 (DraftKings Sportsbook)
Total: 47.5 (BetMGM Sportsbook)
Moneyline: Memphis -625 (DraftKings Sportsbook), Navy +460 (FanDuel Sportsbook)
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Memphis is the heavy favorite, and fairly so, in my opinion. I was curious about the over/under, given that the Midshipmen's offensive style leads to fewer plays per game, and with the new clock rules in college football, until the books figure that out, the "under" plays might be quite conducive. Unless, well, Navy's opponents light up the scoreboard.
Memphis vs. Navy Betting Picks for Week 2
So far, the Tigers have lit up both of their opponents. Now, those opponents are Bethune-Cookman, an FCS team, and Arkansas State, maybe the worst team in the FBS. However, beating bad teams into the dirt is indicative, so Memphis scoring 56 points against Bethune and 37 against Arkansas State is encouraging. The Tigers have the continuity of Seth Henigan under center for the third season in a row. Navy handled Wagner by a score of 24-0, but that's Wagner. When the Midshipmen faced Notre Dame in Dublin, they were obliterated 42-3. The Fighting Irish are looking like a top-10 team, better than Memphis, but that speaks to the issues Navy may be facing. Navy only won four games in 2021 and 2022.
There will be some days to take the under when Navy is involved, but I think Memphis is going to hang too many points on them in this one. Bill Connelly's SP+ projections have the Tigers winning this one by 27 points. That's almost double the spread. I think Memphis could be good. I'm confident Navy will be bad. The Tigers have a sizable spread to cover but a manageable one. I think they do it.
Memphis vs. Navy Best Bet: Memphis -14.0 (DraftKings Sportsbook)
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Memphis vs. Navy Predictions for Week 3
The thing about Navy killing clock is that it is hard to do that when you go three and out time and time again. In addition to Henigan under center, Memphis has added Old Dominion transfer Blake Watson at running back, and through two games, he has 30 carries for 126 yards and three touchdowns. The Tigers beat Arkansas State by 34 points. Notre Dame beat the Midshipmen by 39. Now, Memphis isn't as good as Notre Dame, and Navy is (probably) not as bad as Arkansas State. That being said, the Tigers' offense should be able to score at least 28 points in this one, and I have a hard time seeing this Navy offense scoring more than 14 points. So, worst-case scenario, Memphis doesn't cover by half a point, but I'm not betting on the worst-case scenario happening. The Tigers should win comfortably.
