This article is part of our College Football Picks series.
College Football Picks: Missouri vs. Kentucky Best Bets
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Week 7 brings us another interesting matchup from the SEC as the 5-1 Missouri heads to Lexington to face off with 5-1 Kentucky. Both these teams are off to great starts to the year as both teams' first loss came last week, with Kentucky falling between the hedges in a loss at Georgia while Missouri fought tooth and nail in a late loss at home against LSU.
Missouri vs Kentucky Betting Odds for Week 7
Spread: Missouri +2.5 (FanDuel Sportsbook); Kentucky -2.5 (FanDuel Sportsbook)
Moneyline: Missouri +116 (FanDuel Sportsbook); Kentucky -135 (DraftKings Sportsbook)
Over/Under: Over 50.5 (DraftKings Sportsbook); Under 50.5 (DraftKings Sportsbook)
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Missouri vs Kentucky Betting Picks for Week 7
When looking at these teams' Expected Points Added (EPA) metrics to this point, they match up extremely well against each other. The Missouri offense ranks 15th in EPA/Pass and 52nd in EPA/Rush, while the Kentucky defense ranks 46th in EPA/Pass and 51st in EPA/Rush (via: CFB-Graphs). On the other side of the ball, the Kentucky offense ranks 86th in EPA/Pass and 62nd in EPA/Rush, while Missouri's defense ranks 91st in EPA/Pass and 35th in EPA/Rush (via: CFB-Graphs). The accumulation of these produces an outcome that is extremely close and right near our point total (you can check out the in-depth analysis from CFB-Graphs here).
Missouri vs Kentucky Expert Pick: Kentucky -2.5 (FanDuel Sportsbook)
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As we have covered, these teams match up really well against each other, making it hard to really take a side. With the point total being so low, it may be an option to take the moneyline here and eat the added juice. Missouri has gotten off to a great start at home but has yet to take their impressive play on the road to this point, as their only road win came against Vanderbilt. Kentucky, meanwhile, has been pretty impressive at home, despite most of their games to this point coming against sub-par non-conference opponents, but they were able to dismantle Florida 33-14 thanks to 280 yards rushing and three touchdowns from Ray Davis.
Missouri vs Kentucky Predictions for Week 7
Both these defenses have a tough task on hand as Kentucky will have to handle the country's leading receiver in Luther Burden, while Missouri will have to try to contain the SEC's leading rusher in Ray Davis. This game being played at home for Kentucky is a big factor, and they have shown lots of grit to this point of the season. I expect Kentucky to have a bounce-back game after a gruesome loss to the No. 1 team in the country last week. It will likely be a very tightly contested matchup, but I expect Kentucky to pull it out in the end.
