This article is part of our College Football Picks series.
NC State vs. Virginia Betting Odds and Best Bets
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Two less-than-impressive ACC foes are set to battle Friday evening in Charlottesville. The home Cavaliers sit at 0-3 SU, most recently getting crushed at Maryland a week ago 42-14. They're 1-2 ATS while all three of their games have gone over the listed total, somewhat surprising given they've only scored 27 points in two matchups against Power 5 schools. North Carolina State is 2-1 SU but 0-3 ATS, while the total is 1-1-1 in their three games. The Wolfpack, too, haven't been great offensively, scoring 24 points in both of their games against FBS competition. They did pound VMI for 45 points in a get-right game last week. Can that momentum carry over?
NC State vs. Virginia Betting Odds for Week 4
Spread: North Carolina State -9.5 (FanDuel Sportsbook)
Total: 47.5 (Caesar's Sportsbook)
Moneyline: North Carolina State -350 (FanDuel Sportsbook); Virginia +300 (DraftKings SportsBook)
N.C. State opened as nine-point favorites; it briefly went straight to 10 before settling at the current number Thursday morning, and there's parity across all books. As of now, FanDuel has the best odds at -9.5 for the Wolfpack, but we're splitting hairs. DraftKings is the current best spot if you're backing a Cavaliers' cover, but again, the odds are virtually the same everywhere.
We've seen a pretty steady rise in the total, which opened at just 45.0. It peaked at 49.0 and is starting to slide back down a tad. Most books sit at 48 or 48.5, so if you're thinking points are coming, Caesars is the best option presently. More movement prior to kickoff wouldn't surprise, but getting back to seven total touchdowns isn't likely.
Moneyline odds vary wildly across books. NCST has been as high as (-410) and is around (-375) at most books, making the FanDuel line markable better. If you're calling for an outright upset, DraftKings is the only spot with the Wahoos at (+300); all other books are lower.
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NC State vs. Virginia Betting Picks for Week 4
The total here is a challenging one to back on either side. Virginia can't score, and they are giving up a boatload of points, with all opponents getting at least 36 points against them. Their defense is statistically terrible against both the run and the pass. The challenge comes with the Wolfpack offense, which hasn't come together out of the gates. They don't have a running back with 100 rushing yards through three games, and only one receiver has caught more than eight balls. That receiver, Kevin Concepcion, is averaging a mere 7.6 ypc. For as much as I back QB Brennan Armstrong and OC Robert Anae, and this is a return to their old stomping grounds where both broke out two years ago, I need to see something from the Wolfpack before believing. There's also a coastal system moving into Virginia late Friday. It looks like Charlottesville will stay dry, but winds could come into play. I'd have a very slight lean to the under here, but not strong enough to back either side.
That leaves us with the spread and asking whether the Wolfpack can win by two scores or if the Cavaliers can keep this close. And ultimately, I don't see it. Virginia has ambiguity under center. Tony Muskett started their opener against Tennessee but left with a shoulder injury that has now cost him two games. Anthony Colandrea replaced him and has shown a gunslinger mentality but has been turnover-prone. Muskett returning would further push me towards the under, as he's shown more conservatively and unwilling to take risks. But Virginia is just too mistake-prone, regardless. They've thrown four interceptions and fumbled five times, fortunately losing only one. They don't have an interception and have forced only one fumble recovery defensively. I don't expect the Wolfpack to blow this open, given their offensive limitations, but they'll slowly build a lead and stretch it out over four quarters to earn a road cover.
North Carolina State vs. Virginia Best Bet: North Carolina State (-9.5) at FanDuel Sportsbook
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NC State vs. Virginia Predictions for Week 4
How this game plays out will clearly be impacted by Virginia's quarterback decision. If it's Muskett, I expect UVA to play this conservatively, try to win field position and a low-scoring game. If it's Colandrea, we could see some more vertical shots, but I'd think a costly mistake or two that set the Wolfpack up for scores on short fields.
The Wolfpack defense was vulnerable against the run in both of their first two games against UConn and Notre Dame. But Virginia has been woeful rushing the ball, averaging just 1.9 ypc. I just don't see a path for the Cavaliers to score here. Once North Carolina State scratches, they'll continue to do so and continue building an early lead, forcing Virginia out of their comfort zone and forcing mistakes to salt this away. NORTH CAROLINA STATE 27-14.
