This article is part of our College Football Picks series.
College Football Picks: New Mexico State vs. Liberty Best Bets
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New Mexico State vs. Liberty Betting Odds for Week 14
Spread: New Mexico State +11.5 (-110, Caesars Sportsbook); Liberty -10.5 (-110, Caesars Sportsbook)
Total: 56.5 (Over, -110 BetMGM Sportsbook); 57 (Under, -108, DraftKings Sportsbook)
Moneyline: New Mexico State +380 (DraftKings Sportsbook); Liberty -425 (ESPN BET)
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The New Mexico State Aggies (10-3, 7-1 CUSA) meet the Liberty Flames (12-0, 8-0) in the Conference USA Championship Game at Williams Stadium in Lynchburg, Va. on Friday night. Kickoff is scheduled for 7 p.m. ET, and the game can be viewed on CBS Sports Network (CBSSN).
To say head coach Jerry Kill has done an amazing job with the Aggies is an understatement. New Mexico State has 10 wins for the first time since 1960 when Warren Woodson led the Aggies to a Sun Bowl victory and a No. 14 ranking in The Associated Press' Top 25 poll. That's the last time the Aggies were ranked. Yeah, it's been a tough half-century of football in Las Cruces. That is, at least until now.
The Flames do not have that long of a history. In fact, Liberty has played for six seasons, and it has been to bowl games in each of the past four campaigns. However, head coach Jamey Chadwell has taken to the program to new heights, winning all 12 games, while checking in with a No. 20 ranking in the AP poll.
New Mexico State has won and covered eight straight games, including a 31-10 win at Auburn on Nov. 18, and the Aggies were paid $1.8 million by the Tigers for the honor!
Liberty failed to cover the final two games in wins over UMass at home, and at UTEP. It was still a respectable 8-4 ATS this season, including a 33-17 win over New Mexico State back on Sept. 9 as a 9.5-point favorite. The Aggies are a much better team than back then, but can they snuff out the Flames?
QB Diego Pavia leads the Aggies, and he is a dual threat, completing 61.2% of his passes for 2,727 yards, 23 TD and 8 INT, while leading the team with 808 rushing yards (5.3 yards per attempt) and 5 TD.
For the Flames, it's all about QB Kaidon Salter, who has thrown for 2,431 yards, 29 TD and 5 INT, while running for 899 yards and 11 TD. RB Quinton Cooley went for 1,251 rushing yards and 13 TD, too, so the New Mexico State run defense will have its hands full. In fact, Liberty led the nation with 295.4 yards per game on the ground, while posting 40.1 PPG.
New Mexico State allowed just 126.6 rushing yards per game, while allowing 19.7 PPG, so the Aggies could be able to slow down the Flames.
New Mexico State vs. Liberty Betting Picks for Week 14
We've seen these teams meet before in this very same venue, but the stakes weren't nearly as high, and no one could have predicted these would be the combatants for the Conference USA title game.
The last time New Mexico State took a loss was Sept. 23 at Hawaii, so we can't crush the Aggies too much for that. They've been perfect in each of the past two months. That was also the last time they failed to cover (it was a push), while going 9-0-1 ATS in the past 10 games overall. The last time New Mexico failed to cover was at Liberty on Sept. 9.
Liberty will get the job done, as they have a much more potent rushing attack, and I don't feel good about New Mexico State being able to turn the tables and get the road upset. It's been a great story in Las Cruces, but all good things must come to an end. At least they'll go bowling.
New Mexico State vs. Liberty Expert Pick: Liberty -10.5 (-115 FanDuel Sportsbook)
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New Mexico State vs. Liberty Predictions for Week 14
The best play is taking Liberty and laying the points. As far as the total is concerned, the trends are all over the board.
First off, the Under (54) cashed in the first game, which saw the Flames win 33-17. The Under is also 6-1 in the past seven games for the Aggies, while going 9-2 in the past 11 games overall.
However, the Over has cashed in five of the past six games for Liberty, with the offense going for 38 or more points in six straight games, while posting 31 or more points in 11 of 12 outings overall. I have absolutely no confidence in either side, but I'd lean Over based on Liberty's ability to put up tons of points, especially at home.
