Start Sit: Who to Play, Who to Bench Week 10

Welcome to the Week 10 edition of Start vs. Sit. We have just two matchups between ranked teams this week with Georgia playing Florida in the World's Largest Outdoor Cocktail Party and Memphis plays host to SMU in a game with major AAC implications. Beyond that, there are still some fun matchups off the beaten path that offer plenty of fantasy intrigue. Let's dive into this week's slate and break down the toughest lineup decisions from each conference. 

AAC

START

Shane Buechele, QB, SMU at Memphis

The battle for AAC West supremacy takes place in Memphis this week and the game has enough magnitude to bring ESPN's College Gameday to town. I'm always game for Group of Five teams getting national attention, and this game has all the makings of one of the best and most important showdowns of the season in the AAC and the Group of Five as a whole. 

Buechele will have his work cut out for him. He's on the road facing a Memphis defense that allows 186 passing yards per game — two full yards less than what it allows on the ground. That's an impressive mark, especially in today's game. It also points to Memphis having a definite deficiency against the run that SMU may opt to exploit via Xavier Jones and the rushing attack. It also has to be acknowledged that Buechele is coming off his worst game of the season — a 203-yard clunker with two touchdowns and a pick in a narrow win over Houston. 

Still, there's enough in Buechele's track record to feel confident starting him this week. The volume should be abundant — he averages 36 pass attempts per game and has mostly been efficient with that opportunity, completing 63 percent of his passes at 8.1 YPA. He also has receivers like James Proche and Reggie Roberson at his disposal. Roberson is dealing with a foot injury, so that is something to keep an eye on throughout the week. But even if Roberson is out, SMU has enough pass-catching depth to keep Buechele afloat. Unless you have a markedly better option, Buechele should stay in your lineup even with the tough matchup.

SIT

Clayton Tune, QB, Houston at Central Florida

The game many circled as the matchup of the year in the AAC has lost some of its luster with D'Eriq King sitting out the rest of the season for the 3-5 (!) Cougars while Central Florida has slipped a bit after losing two games. Even with the lower stakes, there is fantasy fallout from this matchup. 

On the Houston side, Clayton Tune is coming off a valiant effort after nearly leading the upset over SMU in Week 9. He hit big play after big play against the Mustangs with 405 yards on 18 completions! That mitigates the fact that Tune was only able to complete 51 percent of his passes in that outing. He gets a tougher draw this week, going on the road to face a Central Florida defense that's one of the nation's best in limiting big plays. The Knights have allowed just 10 plays over 25 yards in the passing game, 15th fewest in the nation. Tune got bailed out by some busted coverages and incredible plays from his receivers against SMU. Don't expect that same level of luck against a more disciplined UCF defense. 

ACC

START

Trishton Jackson, WR, Syracuse at Boston College

There's been little to be excited about with the Orange this season. Jackson qualifies, though, ranking third in the ACC in both receiving yards per game (79.0) and touchdowns (6). He sees 9.4 targets per game and answers the bell with 8.4 yards per target. Now, Jackson hasn't found the end zone in either of his last two games, but he had scored in four of his previous five games before that drought and now gets to face a porous Boston College defense. 

The Eagles surrender 298.5 passing yards and 2.5 passing scores per game and rank 102nd in defensive S&P+ overall. Even with Syracuse's shaky quarterback play, Jackson is an explosive enough talent with a high enough target baseline to make the Boston College defense pay on Saturday.

SIT

Sam Howell, QB, North Carolina vs. Virginia

This isn't a recency bias thing. Yes, Howell is coming off a game where he really looked like a true freshman at times, completing 10 of 26 passes with two picks to go with a pair of touchdown passes. That's not the sole reason to leave him on the bench this week, though. 

Virginia brings one of the nation's toughest defenses to Chapel Hill, and if Duke was able to stifle Howell to the extent it did, it stands to reason that the Wahoos could have a similar level of success. They give up just 169 passing yards per game on just 6.4 YPA and have allowed just nine passing touchdowns in eight games. I don't expect Howell to struggle quite to the extent he did against Duke, but this is another tough spot against a defense that's empirically better than what gave him fits in Week 9. 

BIG 12

START

Denzel Mims, WR, Baylor vs. West Virginia

Mims will have had nearly two weeks to stew over his one-catch outing against Oklahoma State by the time Baylor kicks off Thursday, and he'll be looking to get back on the right track. 

Prior to his recent cold spell, Mims averaged 9.5 YPT on 9.6 targets per game from Week 2 to Week 7, racking up 457 yards and five touchdowns in that span. He still owns a 28 percent target share in the Baylor offense and now faces a West Virginia secondary that allows 2.0 passing touchdowns per game. Mims has too long of a strong track record to be benched against West Virginia just because of two down weeks in a row. 

SIT

Carter Stanley, QB, Kansas at Kansas State

Both teams from the Sunflower State are coming off exciting wins and now will square off for Kansas supremacy Saturday. Stanley and the Jayhawks play host to the 22nd-ranked Wildcats, and it sets up to be a a struggle for the home team. The Wildcats have been experts at slowing  opposing passing attacks, allowing 187.1 passing yards per game. Opponents aren't having an easy time moving the ball on the Wildcats, and they're having an especially tough time scoring on them, too. Kansas State is one of four teams to allow just four passing touchdowns all season — tied for fewest in the nation. Stanley will be a challenge for Kansas State to contain for four quarters, but I'll side with the defense holding him in check enough to make him a sit-worthy option this week.

BIG TEN

START

Reggie Corbin, RB, Illinois vs. Rutgers

The Big Ten schedule is light this week with just one of its ranked teams (Michigan) in action and the likes of Ohio State, Penn State and Wisconsin on bye. However, we have a fun matchup between Rutgers and Illinois where both teams are coming off wins! How about that?

Illinois checks in as a heavy favorite, and Corbin is in line for one of his best games of the season. Sure, Dre Brown led the Illini in rushing in Week 9, but Corbin is still the No.1 runner on this roster. He averages 5.5 yards per carry despite having played a tough schedule and now he'll go against a Rutgers defense that ranks 111th in YPC allowed (5.06). Corbin should post strong numbers Saturday even if Brown eats into his workload to a degree. The Rutgers defense is bad enough to where more than one rusher can post start-level production. 

SIT

Anthony McFarland, RB, Maryland vs. Michigan

McFarland returned last week from an ankle injury but was stifled by a good-not-great Minnesota defense in a blowout loss. Things don't get easier Saturday with a Michigan team coming to town  that seems to have found a new gear over the last six quarters. Michigan held Notre Dame to just 1.52 YPC over 31 attempts Saturday. In fact, Michigan has surrendered more than 4.0 YPC in a game just once all season, and that was against Jonathan Taylor and Wisconsin in Madison. McFarland is a good back, but he's not in the same class as Taylor and Maryland's rushing attack can't bully Michigan like the Badgers did. This projects to be another long day for McFarland.

CONFERENCE USA

START

Asher O'Hara, QB, Middle Tennessee at Charlotte 

O'Hara is truly the straw that stirs the drink for the Blue Raiders. He leads the team in rushing with 609 rushing yards and six touchdowns in addition to throwing for 1,652 yards and 11 scores on top of that. That adds up to 27.9 fantasy points per game, which ranks just ahead of Penn State's Sean Clifford and Baylor's Charlie Brewer. Now he'll face UNC- Charlotte, which has proven to be susceptible against the run by allowing 199.5 rushing yards per game on 4.99 YPC. 

SIT

Treyvon Hughes, RB, UTEP at North Texas

The Miners enter this matchup as 23-point underdogs, which means the run game could be out the door early for UTEP. That bodes ill for Hughes, who needs volume to put up fantasy-relevant numbers given his 3.8 YPC mark against FBS competition. North Texas doesn't have a prohibitively tough run defense, but the direction this game could go in with the Mean Green taking a commanding lead is enough to sway me off Hughes in Week 10.

MAC

START

Quintin Morris, WR, Bowling Green vs. Akron

This is truly one of the worst matchups all year, but it's slim pickin's in the MAC this week. Morris will be one of the best players in this one as he enters Week 10 leading the team in targets (63), receptions (40), yards (462) and touchdowns (2). A matchup against Akron will be an opportunity to face the 105th-rated defense by S&P+. The Zips also allow a 66 percent completion rate and have given up 18 passing touchdowns — tied for the seventh most in FBS. With Morris' heavy target share (28 percent), he'll have plenty of opportunity to take advantage of this matchup.

SIT

Shaq Vann, RB, Eastern Michigan vs. Buffalo

It would take a desperate roster to need to stream Vaughn this week. Eastern Michigan is the second-most pass-happy offense in the MAC behind Akron, throwing on 54.6 percent of its plays. When the Eagles run the ball, Vann clearly leads the way but his effectiveness has been muted this year.

Now, Vann might be tempting after his breakout game against Toledo on Saturday when he ran for 110 and two touchdowns. However, before that game Vann had averaged 42 rushing yards per game and hadn't found the end zone. Toledo has a remarkably bad run defense, allowing 5.42 YPC and 2.0 rushing touchdowns per game, which takes some of the juice out of Vann's Week 9 outing. He'll face a Buffalo defense that allows just 92 rushing yards per game this week, and his track record against better competition doesn't inspire much optimism. 

MOUNTAIN WEST

START

Ahmari Davis, RB, New Mexico at Nevada

Davis has taken back over as the Lobos' top rusher and he'll be counted on again this week with a road game at Nevada. Since returning from injury Davis has 30 carries for 286 yards and two touchdowns, demonstrating strong per-carry ability and a bankable workload. Meanwhile, Nevada allows the third-most fantasy points to running backs in the Mountain West. This sets up extremely well for Davis in Week 10.

SIT

Bailey Gaither, WR, San Jose State vs. Boise State

Boise State's defense is arguably the class of the Mountain West, checking in with just 329 total yards allowed per game. Gaither has a tough matchup here against this secondary, too, as the Broncos surrender just 5.9 yards per pass attempt to conference foes. There's also the matter of Tre Walker commanding a 26 percent target share since debuting in Week 4 while Hartley's share has dropped off to 16.4 percent. Much of Gaither's production has come via the touchdown, and when San Jose State is projected to score just 20 points, the pressure will be on Gaither to find a way to produce that isn't so touchdown-reliant this week.

PAC-12

START

Zack Moss, RB, Utah at Washington

This is one of the Pac-12's marquee inter-division matchups of the entire season with the Utes heading up to Seattle to face the Huskies. Points will be at a premium as the over/under is 47 thanks to the strength of both defenses. 

Washington's defense is not as formidable as it's been in recent years, but it still ranks 32nd in the nation in S&P+ and holds opponents to less than 150 rushing yards per game. Moss transcends the proverbial tough matchup, however. 

The senior running back ranks 15th in the nation in fantasy points per game among running backs and is playing the best football of his career. In his three games since the bye, Moss has 47 carries for 335 yards and six touchdowns while adding six catches for 167 yards. Moss is a must-start even with the tough matchup on the road where he'll be to focal point of the Washington game plan.

Elsewhere in the Pac-12, the UCLA offense seems to have woken up like it did down the stretch last year. That makes any of your Bruin mainstays worthy of a start going against an imploding Colorado defense.

SIT

Kenan Christon, RB, USC vs. Oregon

Oregon's run defense can make even the most established running backs look pedestrian, so when we have a freshman in Christon trying to find room against the Ducks, it's a potential lineup concern. 

Christon is the last man standing in the Trojan backfield after Stephen Carr, Vavae Malepeai and Markese Stepp went down with injuries, and he's answered the bell since taking on a larger role. He has 22 carries for 179 yards and two scores in his last two outings against Arizona and Colorado. 

The Oregon defense allows just 101 rushing yards per game on 3.16 YPC and the Ducks have surrendered just two rushing scores in conference play — a five-game sample. The ground game might fall by the wayside Saturday for the Trojans, and that would mean meager production for Christon.

SEC

START

D'Andre Swift, RB, Georgia vs. Florida

My personal bias aside, this is the biggest game in the SEC this week as the winner will almost certainly have its ticket punched for Atlanta and the conference championship game while the loser will need some serious luck to make it there. It's a matchup between two top-10 teams and both sides have elite defenses. 

Florida ranks 17th in S&P+ defense and gives up just 3.8 YPC. The Gators haven't faced a run game as strong as Georgia's just yet, though. Georgia leads the SEC in rushing yards per game (236.86) and yards per carry (6.07). The offensive line deserves a lot of credit, but so does Swift. 

The junior averages 6.8 YPC and has scored in each of his last three games in addition to rushing for  more than 100 yards in back-to-back outings. Georgia likely will look to start things out on the ground rather than test the Florida secondary and pass rush. With that, Swift will be busy this week and should be set up for success even with the tough matchup. 

SIT

Elijah Moore, WR, Mississippi at Auburn

Auburn holding LSU to just 23 points in Death Valley was a statement to all of college football that the Plainsmen defense is a force to be reckoned with. Auburn's defense ranks 10th in defensive S&P+ and averages 7.5 tackles for loss per game, 18th in the country. This spells trouble for the entire Mississippi offense as it heads to The Plains to face a salty Auburn team coming off a brutal loss.

Moore ranks 10th in the nation in targets with 80 through eight games. That volume could keep him afloat this week in PPR formats, but it's not a guarantee. Mississippi's passing game could be torpedoed by the Auburn front getting to either John Rhys Plumlee or Matt Corral early and often. Even if Moore keeps his usual pace in terms of targets, his efficiency and touchdown upside could backslide. 

SUN BELT

START

Josh Johnson, RB, UL-Monroe vs. Arkansas State

There doesn't project to be much in the way of defense played in this one with an over/under at 68 and both teams carrying implied totals over 30. Johnson is the engine of the ULM run game with 44 percent of the rushing share — a particularly high mark considering how much quarterback Caleb Evans runs. 

It's fair to point out that Johnson is coming off a season-low 77 yards in his last game, but that had more to do with lack of opportunity than anything as he still averaged 5.9 YPC  on 13 attempts in a lopsided loss to Appalachian State. Look for him to get closer to his season average of 17.0 carries against the friendliest defense in the Sun Belt when it comes to running backs, with the Red Wolves allowing 38.3 fantasy points per game to rushers.

SIT

Shai Werts, QB, Georgia Southern at Appalachian State

This isn't the usual case where you figure a heavy underdog would abandon the run because this Georgia Southern offense sticks to the run no matter what. The problem is Werts isn't being relied upon as a rusher the way he was in 2018. He averages 9.7 rushing attempts per game, a far cry from the 14 he averaged last season and Werts has yet to find the end zone on the ground. He had 15 (!) rushing scores last year. The ascension of J.D. King and the re-emergence of Wesley Kennedy has allowed Georgia Southern to be more balanced with its rushing distribution, but the fact remains that the thing that made Werts a weapon in fantasy last year has disappeared. The odds of it re-emerging against Appalachian State on the road seem slim, so Werts is deserving of a spot on the bench in Week 10.