This article is part of our Start vs. Sit series.
It's the last full week of regular season, which means this week's Start/Sit is the last installment of the year. Before we get into the meat of the slate, I'd like to thank everyone for reading along in what has been another fun year writing this article. If you have any specific start/sit questions for your lineups, please feel free to fire away in the comments section and I'll get back to you as soon as possible.
PLAYERS TO START
AAC
Gardner Minshew, QB, East Carolina (at Memphis): Aside from the obvious AAC studs who have been lineup fixtures throughout the year, Minshew is an off-the-beaten-path option who should pay off in two-QB formats. He's been red-hot since taking back over at quarterback, throwing for more than 400 yards in two of his last three games. He has major volume upside as well considering that ECU doesn't seem to be familiar with the whole concept of running the ball, which has led to Minshew chucking it 55 times per game in November. Even if it's not pretty, Minshew should throw it enough Saturday to provide plenty of cheap production against the Tigers.
ACC
Cam Akers, RB, Florida State (at Florida): All right, I know last week was rough if you went the Akers route at running back, but a lot of that had to do with FSU simply not needing to deploy its best players. That'll change this week with the Noles trying to squeeze bowl eligibility out
It's the last full week of regular season, which means this week's Start/Sit is the last installment of the year. Before we get into the meat of the slate, I'd like to thank everyone for reading along in what has been another fun year writing this article. If you have any specific start/sit questions for your lineups, please feel free to fire away in the comments section and I'll get back to you as soon as possible.
PLAYERS TO START
AAC
Gardner Minshew, QB, East Carolina (at Memphis): Aside from the obvious AAC studs who have been lineup fixtures throughout the year, Minshew is an off-the-beaten-path option who should pay off in two-QB formats. He's been red-hot since taking back over at quarterback, throwing for more than 400 yards in two of his last three games. He has major volume upside as well considering that ECU doesn't seem to be familiar with the whole concept of running the ball, which has led to Minshew chucking it 55 times per game in November. Even if it's not pretty, Minshew should throw it enough Saturday to provide plenty of cheap production against the Tigers.
ACC
Cam Akers, RB, Florida State (at Florida): All right, I know last week was rough if you went the Akers route at running back, but a lot of that had to do with FSU simply not needing to deploy its best players. That'll change this week with the Noles trying to squeeze bowl eligibility out of an otherwise wretched season and needing a win over the Gators. Akers, who has admittedly turned in some duds this season, is fresh after seeing just nine carries last week. Look for Akers to push for close to 20 carries against Florida, which should translate into his best production since his breakout game against Syracuse.
BIG 12
David Montgomery, RB, Iowa State (at Kansas State): It looks like Montgomery's ankle injury won't impact his availability for Saturday's game, which makes him a must-start once again for your championship matchup. Montgomery's breakout season has helped fuel Iowa State's turnaround, as he has six 100-yard games and 11 rushing touchdowns. Sure, Kansas State is respectable against the run, but Montgomery's usage and talent is too much to consider benching him in the regular-season finale. And for what it's worth, I'm not worried about Baker Mayfield sitting for more than a series or two.
BIG 10
Stanley Morgan, WR, Nebraska (vs. Iowa): Iowa's secondary is usually something to avoid, but the same can be said for Penn State's and yet the Nittany Lions got shredded for 185 yards and a score by Morgan on Saturday. Morgan actually sits atop the Big Ten in receiving yards per game (91.2), having surpassed Maryland's D.J. Moore. It'll be a tough matchup for Morgan, but he has the target floor combined with the explosiveness to produce WR2 numbers Friday while you enjoy your Thanksgiving leftovers.
CONFERENCE USA
Kalib Woods, WR, FAU (at Charlotte): The Lane Train isn't going off the rails anytime soon as the Owls' offense has transformed into one of the nation's best. A lot of that can be attributed to a run game fueled by Devin Singletary, but Kalib Woods' return and subsequent reemergence adds another dimension entirely. Woods was suspended the first eight games, but his last three games have been eye opening (12 receptions, 327 yards, three scores), and there's little reason to think Charlotte can give him much resistance.
MAC
Nathan Rourke, QB, Ohio (at Buffalo): This sets up to be one of the most entertaining MAC games of the weekend between a pair of teams that can put up points in bunches. Rourke, despite having some brutal passing stats the last two weeks, is still a must-start thanks to his dynamic rushing ability that doesn't get enough attention nationally. His 19 rushing scores rank second in the nation behind FAU's Devin Singletary, and his matchup against Buffalo's weak run defense is simply too good to move off even if the passing stats ultimately underwhelm.
MOUNTAIN WEST
Lexington Thomas, RB, UNLV (at Nevada): Thomas' role and talent makes him a staple in my rankings, but he's pretty easily a top-25 back this week with a matchup against Nevada on tap. Nevada has become notorious for letting up huge performances to rushers – even average ones – so this is a matchup that sets up extremely well for Thomas. The prolific junior has 17 rushing touchdowns and averages 6.49 yards per carry, so facing the nation's 120th-ranked run defense in S&P+ may only serve to bump up those impressive numbers.
PAC-12
Charles Nelson, WR, Oregon (vs. Oregon State): Remember last week when we mentioned how big a deal it was for Justin Herbert to be back at quarterback for the Ducks? Well, let's revisit the Oregon offense, but discuss a beneficiary of Herbert's return: Charles Nelson. His own injury, coupled with Herbert's absence, led to Nelson pulling in 67 yards on 14 targets in a three-week span, Oct. 21 to Nov. 4. Last week with Herbert back? Four grabs on six six targets for 74 yards. He stands to see plenty of volume again this week as Oregon looks to avenge last year's embarrassing loss in The Civil War to Oregon State.
SEC
Kerryon Johnson, RB, Auburn (vs. Alabama): Any statement with a "We Want Bama" implication, even in an article like this, usually ends up blowing up in that person's face. But it's the last article of the season and I'm feeling bold. Johnson has been a machine this year in terms of both yardage and touchdowns. Aside from a Twilight Zone-esque outing in which he was held to 63 yards by Arkansas, Johnson has run for at least 137 yards or one touchdown in every game since the beginning of October. Yes, Alabama has an extremely tough defense, but it's a banged-up defense as well. Aeris Williams famously ran for 97 yards and two scores on Alabama two weeks ago, and I contend that Johnson is several notches above Williams as a runner. This is going to be a classic installment of the Iron Bowl, and even with the tough matchup, Johnson will still find some room and produce viable starter numbers. Fortune favors the bold; start Kerryon Johnson.
SUN BELT
Penny Hart, WR, Georgia State (vs. Appalachian State): There aren't a ton of viable starts for this weekend out of the Sun Belt, but Hart is certainly one of the select few. Hart has seen double-digit targets in all but two of his games this season and has converted those 104 targets into 65 grabs for 961 yards and eight touchdowns. Appalachian State has one of the more respectable secondaries in the Sun Belt, but it's still not quite enough to stop Hart from making a major impact on Saturday's outcome.
PLAYERS TO SIT
AAC
Marquez Valdes-Scantling, WR, South Florida (at UCF): There's no doubting Valdes-Scantling's ceiling as the 6-foot-5 receiver has shown game-breaking ability time and again this season. However, he's also shown to be unreliable time and again as well. He has four games of at least 90 yards, but he has just as many games with less than 30 yards. That sort of volatility scares me for championship weekend, especially considering the tough matchup against UCF's 15th-rated S&P+ pass defense. Toss in the fact that the weather calls for thunderstorms in Orlando and Quinton Flowers' relative struggles as a passer this season and Valdes-Scantling becomes a risky option.
ACC
Ervin Philips, WR, Syracuse (vs. Boston College): It's difficult to imagine Eric Dungey returning, or at least returning to his regular form, in time for Saturday's game. While Zach Mahoney isn't terrible, he's still a significant downgrade from Dungey, and that's worrisome when Syracuse draws a matchup against Boston College's elite secondary (6th in pass defense in S&P+). With that, Philips' stock takes a significant hit this week and he is difficult to justify starting, even considering the 20 targets he's seen the last two weeks with Mahoney at the helm.
BIG 12
Keke Coutee, WR, Texas Tech (at Texas): As a receiver who was likely rostered on a good chunk of playoff teams across the fantasy landscape, Coutee's recent slide has been a bizarre and frustrating development. He's seen a grand total of seven targets in his last two games; prior to that, Coutee had seen less than seven targets in a given game just three times all year. It's also worth pointing out that Texas has a top-30 secondary in S&P+ and checks in just behind TCU in terms of passer rating allowed in the Big 12. I'd also think twice about using my West Virginia wideouts with Will Grier sidelined.
BIG TEN
Karan Higdon, RB, Michigan (vs. Ohio State): Michigan, for whatever reason (there are many from which to chose), is the worst good team I've seen in awhile. All the pieces are there and yet the Wolverines are double-digit dogs at home this weekend, and a lack of run game probably plays into that line. While I'm not convinced that Higdon was 100 percent healthy last weekend against Wisconsin, seven carries for 20 yards is still concerning. Higdon's hot streak from October to early November was great if you caught on at the right time, but it's long over now and it's almost impossible to imagine him getting things turned around Saturday against an Ohio State front that's even better against the run than Wisconsin's according to S&P+.
CONFERENCE USA
Chase Litton, QB, Marshall (vs. Southern Mississippi): Southern Mississippi does not have a good defense. Chase Litton is a rock solid quarterback. So why the pan? Well, Litton simply hasn't been that good of a fantasy quarterback this season. How many 300-yard games does he have in 2017? Two. How many games less than 200 yards? Five. Litton does have the Herd in position for an eight-win season and seemingly always has them in position to compete. Still, his lack of fantasy upside makes him a non-entity for this week.
MAC
Jonathan Ward, RB, Central Michigan (vs. Northern Illinois): Ward is easily among the MAC's best running backs, so this pick more so applies to leagues that have every FBS conference in play. In that case, Ward is a low-end RB3 or flex option this week against Northern Illinois' run defense that is 15th in the nation. I don't expect a disastrous outing from Ward by any means, but this matchup is tough enough to where you should have another back on your roster with a rosier projection for this week.
MOUNTAIN WEST
Brett Rypien, QB, Boise State (at Fresno State): Rypien has been much improved in the second half of the season with a 12:1 TD:INT in his last four games. Still, something feels a bit off about this week's matchup. Fresno State is at home, where it's 4-1, but sits as a touchdown underdog. The Bulldogs sport the 17th-best defense in S&P+ and have the best passer rating allowed against conference opponents. This is a tougher matchup than what one might expect on the surface for Rypien, so I'd advise looking at other options. Oh, and the only 300-yard passer Fresno State has allowed this year is Washington's Jake Browning, who is a few notches above Rypien in terms of talent and supporting cast.
PAC-12
Tavares Martin Jr., WR, Washington State (at Washington): Martin has been far-and-away Washington State's best receiver this season, hauling in 65 receptions for 769 yards and nine scores. For context, he has 239 more receiving yards than any other Cougar and his touchdown count is four higher than any teammate. He'll be priority No. 1 for the Washington defense, which is tops in the Pac-12 in yards allowed per game, (168.4), touchdowns allowed (7) and YPA (5.8). Martin figures to see plenty of volume and has enough talent to avoid being shut out of the box score entirely, but this sets up as his toughest matchup of the year by a significant margin.
SEC
Calvin Ridley, WR, Alabama (at Auburn): I know I'm keeping my SEC focus to one game this week, but I'm not going to tell y'all to bench Johnny Kelly against an awful Vandy run defense or suggest you sit some South Carolina or Kentucky player you wouldn't be starting anyway. I'll keep it with the Iron Bowl, where Alabama has to be a bit nervous heading to The Plains to face an Auburn team that no one wants to see now. The Tigers have the top-rated defense against both the run and the pass according to S&P+ and they have home-field advantage. I expect Alabama to take a run-heavy approach to sustain drives and take the air out of Jordan-Hare, which portends a low-volume day for Ridley. Ridley has been on an absolute tear lately, so while I do see him making at least one or two splash plays, Auburn's suffocating pass defense will be too much for Jalen Hurts to exploit.
SUN BELT
Alfonso Onunwor, WR, Idaho (vs. New Mexico State): This is a good matchup for Onunwor, but the quarterback play is concerning. Onunwor has quietly been one of the best receivers in the Sun Belt this year with 54 receptions for 693 yards and seven touchdowns, but he managed seven catches for 58 yards and a score last week with new quarterback Mason Petrino at the helm. Onunwor remains a market share monster that should see a big percentage of the targets this weekend, but he's unlikely to take full advantage of the matchup if it's Petrino, not Matt Linehan, under center for the Vandals.
