Utah vs USC Betting Odds, Picks, and Predictions for Week 7

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Published on October 14, 2022

Utah vs. USC Betting Odds, Picks, and Predictions for Week 7

In the preseason, this game looked like it could be the Pac-12 matchup of the year with two potentially unbeaten teams vying for an eventual spot in the College Football Playoff. Now, Utah sits at 4-2 to start the season, and its hopes for even a conference title are on life support after a 42-32 loss to UCLA last week. Meanwhile, USC is still in need of a statement win to show its 6-0 start under new head coach Lincoln Riley is not just smoke and mirrors. There are still plenty of championship implications for both teams, and this should be reflected by the high-pressure atmosphere contained within Rice-Eccles Stadium.

Utah vs. USC Odds for Week 7

Spread: Utah -3.5 (-105 BetMGM Sportsbook)

Total: 65.0 (-107 PointsBet)

Moneyline: Utah -160 (PointsBet); USC +146 (FanDuel Sportsbook)

The overall odds have stayed pretty constant during the lead-up to this game. However, the total has jumped from 58.5 at open to as high as 65 at most sportsbooks. Betting on a lot of scoring makes sense in this one, as both offenses average over 40 points per game. This leaves an implied score of 34-30.5 in favor of the Utes for the second week in a row. Utah's narrow 3.5-point advantage at home also indicates that this game would be close to a pick 'em on a neutral site. Both teams are 4-2 ATS this season, with the over hitting in three games and four games for USC and Utah, respectively.

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Utah vs. USC Betting Picks This Week

At first glance, the over seems like it should be a slam dunk given both teams' offensive production and the glaring flaws from these defenses. However, recent results actually cause me to lean toward the under. USC's offense got off to a very hot start with 50.7 points per game over the first three weeks; but, this unit has looked very disjointed recently, averaging a mediocre 5.7 yards per play over the past three contests. This has been reflected by the play of quarterback Caleb Williams, who's completed less than 52 percent of his passes in two of these last three games. It's hard to imagine this will change on the road against a Utah defense that, while weak in the trenches, has fared fairly well against the pass, allowing the 29th-lowest EPA per pass at -0.156, per @statsowar on Twitter. On the other side, the Utes' ground-and-pound offensive philosophy doesn't lend itself to overly explosive results, and they'll probably want to slow this game down to avoid getting into a shootout with Lincoln Riley's offense. The Trojans would also be smart to lean into their running game, which averages the 7th-best EPA per rush at 0.242, per @statsowar. Both teams will be able to move the ball, but it won't be the track meet necessary to get to 65 combined points.

Utah vs. USC State Best Bet: UNDER 65.0 at PointsBet

Utah vs. USC Prediction

It's tough to get a good feel for how this game plays out. Neither team has an obvious solution for stopping what the other does best. Utah has struggled against mobile quarterbacks and stopping the run, while USC is at its best when Williams and running back Travis Dye combine to form a dangerous rushing duo. Meanwhile, the Trojans are even worse at stopping the run, and the Utes love nothing more than handing the ball off at a rate of 39.2 times per game. Both teams also rank atop the FBS in turnovers lost and gained this season. Therefore, the outcome of this game should swing on a small number of crucial plays. For that reason, it's best to trust that home-field advantage could be the ultimate determining factor. Utah is 23-2 at home since 2017, as the elevation and the intensity of the crowd at Rice-Eccles Stadium are proven to have true effects on teams. USC also looked awfully beatable during a narrow 17-14 win over Oregon State just three weeks ago. Utes quarterback Cameron Rising has been highly efficient this season, and, unless they're forcing turnovers, the Trojans' defense is actually one of the 20 worst units in the country, allowing a successful play rate of 44.9 percent, according to @statsowar. I'll take Utah to stick to the game plan laid out time and time again by head coach Kyle Whittingham over USC's ability to keep everything on track during its first real test of the season.

Final Score: Utah 31, USC 27

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