EuroLeague Primer: Round 24 - Tuesday

EuroLeague Primer: Round 24 - Tuesday

This article is part of our EuroLeague Primer series.

PREGAME UPDATES

STATS AND INFO.

THE SLATE

LDLC ASVEL Villeurbanne at Fenerbahce Beko Istanbul

Status Check: David Lighty (ASV), William Howard (ASV), Raymar Morgan (ASV), Antoine Diot (ASV), Victor Wembanyama (ASV), Jan Vesely (FBB), Nando de Colo (FBB), Danilo Barthel (FBB), Marial Shayok (FBB), Markel Starks (FBB)

Best Bets for Success: The busiest day of EuroLeague action in a while gets underway with two teams that own nine wins apiece. Both squads took different routes here, with the visitors winning just two of their last 10 games and the home team going 6-4 in the same span despite being down their top two players -- who both left with injuries when these teams met in December. A number of players have stepped up for Fenerbahce, none more than Achille Polonara, who has recorded at least 26.5 DraftKings points in four straight and put up a season-high 43.8 points against ASVEL in Round 17. While he is listed as a center he has been starting at a forward spot, and ASVEL ranks bottom-4 against players at those positions in points, rebounds, field goal percentage and field goal attempts. It's going to take more than one rough outing for Chris Jones to lose his spot here, particularly with him scoring a career-high 27 points against Fenerbahce in the last matchup. He will again be joined by by backcourt mate Elie Okobo, who had his best game in weeks in Round 23. Fenerbahce does fare pretty well against guards, so if you're going with only one of the two, Jones will have a better shot to return value on DraftKings with him checking in quite a bit cheaper. Both teams need a win in this one, so all three players just mentioned figure to get as many minutes as they can handle.

DFS Darlings: Besides the three players above, no one else really stood out in the last matchup other than Dyshawn Pierre, and though he's a bit pricey on DraftKings, he is worth considering thanks to the friendly matchup. The French squad is not allowing guards to do much outside the points column and has been tough on centers, so it could be tough to find a lot more to like on the Fenerbahce side, particularly with several of their intriguing players seeing hefty price bumps. No one has been better against them than the Turkish team, so the value plays also look limited for ASVEL. Fenerbahce does rank bottom-5 against forwards in all six counting stats as well as FGA, so Marcos Knight will have a chance to bounce back. Despite the tough matchup and a notable price bump, you at least have to look at Youssoupha Fall, who is still just $6,800 and punctuated a big week with a 20-point, 11-rebound double double in Sunday's domestic game.

AX Armani Exchange Milan at Crvena Zvezda mts Belgrade

Status Check: Shavon Shields (AXM), Konstantinos Mitoglou (AXM), Jerian Grant (AXM), Trey Kell (AXM), Riccardo Moraschini (AXM), Marko Simonovic (CZV)

Best Bets for Success: The oddsmakers are expecting defense to be the name of the game in this one, as the over/under is quite a bit lower than it is for any of the other contests on the board. That does not bode well for fantasy production, and neither does the fact the stats were spread out fairly evenly on both rosters over the last couple Rounds. Nikola Kalinic is averaging more fantasy points than anyone else in this game and is also the only player who will suit up who checks in above the $9,000 mark on DraftKings. Kalinic has a pretty high floor, but he also lacks much upside, particularly after finishing with a subzero index rating in the last meeting against Milan. Sergio Rodriguez has been the top producer for the Italian team of late, but Kyle Hines has not been far behind, and we're going to give him the nod as Milan's top option for Round 23. The Serbian squad is ceding the fewest points and FGA to opposing guards, and they are faring pretty well in the other counting stats. Meanwhile, they have been pretty friendly to centers and are allowing both the second most steals and blocks to opposing frontcourt players. Hines registered multiple steals five times and swatted multiple shots three times over his last nine games.

DFS Darlings: While Red Star is doing a good job containing opposing guards, no one has been better in that regard than Milan, a team that ranks top-3 against backcourt players in all of the points, assists, steals, blocks, FG% and FGA categories. You can consider Nate Wolters on DraftKings, as he is returning some of the most average value on the board at $7,900, but that might be it in the Red Star backcourt. Luka Mitrovic earns a mention up front, as he had his most productive game of the season when these teams last faced each other. It will be tough for anyone on the Milan roster to return 3x value with only three players hitting the 25-point mark on DraftKings over the last four Rounds, but the player in best position to do so looks like Troy Daniels, who checks in at just $5,400.

Maccabi Playtika Tel Aviv at Zalgiris Kaunas

Status Check: Ante Zizic (MTA), James Nunnally (MTA), Khyri Thomas (MTA), Jake Cohen (MTA), Josh Nebo (ZAL), Janis Strelnieks (ZAL), Mantas Kalnietis (ZAL), Paulius Jankunas (ZAL)

Best Bets for Success: Last-place Zalgiris won more games than Maccabi over each team's last 10 games, but the visitors appear to have snapped out of their slump, winning comfortably the last two times they took the court. Maccabi has been leaning on its backcourt, and they likely will again with Zizic and Nunnally less than 100 percent. Scottie Wilbekin has been lighting up the scoreboard, averaging 17.4 ppg over his last 11 appearances, and Keenan Evans has been hot as well, averaging 26.8 fantasy points over his last six appearances. Both players are a bit pricey on DraftKings, but both could deliver Tuesday, as the Lithuanian team ranks bottom-5 against guards in the points, assists, steals, threes and FG% categories. There will be ample uncertainty on the Zalgiris side both in this section and the next, as things are unsettled both in the backcourt and at the center spot. As such, their safest option seems to be Tyler Cavanaugh, as he is leading the team in fantasy points and averaged 25.5 of those over his last two appearances. He is not the slam dunk most of the other "best bets" are, but he should be fresh after getting a breather in Sunday's domestic game.

DFS Darlings: Zalgiris may lack a true top pick, but they do have some value plays to consider. While Joffrey Lauvergne has not appeared in a EuroLeague game in a long time, he looked pretty spry in his return to action Sunday, and he could wind up being Zalgiris' best option once he's at full speed. He could also give you 3x value Tuesday at $7,600. Lukas Lekavicius could also do the same, as even if Strelnieks and Kalnietis play they will likely be limited. Maccabi has been friendly to opposing guards, and Lekavicius is averaging 27.1 fantasy points when he plays at least 25 minutes. Maccabi has been pretty top-heavy lately, which does not leave much room for bargains. However, if Zizic sits Jalen Reynolds will be a quality option at $7,900, and if Nunnally is out, Derrick Williams will also be in position to produce at $8,000.

AS Monaco at Panathinaikos OPAP Athens

Status Check: Leo Westermann (ASM), Daryl Macon (PAO), Ioannis Papapetrou (PAO)

Best Bets for Success: Games involving Monaco are generally expected to be high-scoring, and this one is no different, as the over/under on this contest is six points higher than the rest of those on the slate. The player contributing the bulk of the points for the French team is Mike James, who hit the 20-point mark six times over the last nine games he finished. James scored just 11 points his last time out, but he did still manage at least 28.3 DraftKings points for the sixth game in a row. He will be in position to extend that streak in the gym he used to play his home games in, as Panathinaikos is ceding easily the most points and FGA to opposing guards and also ranks bottom-2 against players at those positions in rebounds, assists and threes. The French team is also having a lot of trouble with players at a certain position, and that would be the center spot, as Monaco is allowing more points to opposing fives than any other team and also ranks bottom-3 in the rebounds, FG% and FGA categories. That bodes particularly well for Georgios Papagiannis, who nearly recorded a double-double when these teams met in Round 1. Papagiannis sat out his team's last two EuroLeague games, but he handled a full workload in his return to action Sunday, and he could be asked to do more than usual on the offensive end with Papapetrou out and Macon uncertain. Papagiannis, just $9,300 on DraftKings, is averaging a healthy 34.3 DraftKings points when dropping double digits in the points column. If Macon remains out Nemanja Nedovic will also be a pretty safe bet to produce, but he could have a tough time returning significant value on DraftKings at a season-high $9,900.

DFS Darlings: In addition to owning the highest total this game also features the shortest spread, so each team's top producers should be busy. On the Monaco side that group includes Dwayne Bacon, Alpha Diallo and Donatas Motiejunas, who all check in between $8,700-$9,1000 on DraftKings. While it will of course be tough for all three to return 3x value, all three did average at least 28.3 DraftKings points over their last three appearances. Motiejunas' minutes could somewhat be affected by a roster change, as Donta Hall -- who is returning the most average value on the board at $6,500 -- is set to return after missing the last three games. Danilo Andjusic looks like the guard to go after if you pass on James but want to zero in on Panathinaikos' struggles with guards. Speaking of matchups, the French squad has had issues with frontcourt players in general, so Okaro White will be in play, as he put up a season-high 30.5 DraftKings points two Rounds ago and also in the last game Papapetrou missed. Jeremy Evans could be as well if you want a cheaper option with a prime matchup. Should Macon sit, you may still be able to squeeze just enough value out of Lefteris Bochoridis, who checks in at just $4,900.

Zenit Saint Petersburg at Bitci Baskonia Vitoria-Gasteiz

Status Check: Shabazz Napier (ZEN), Arturas Gudaitis (ZEN), Conner Frankamp (ZEN), Alec Peters (BKN), Matt Costello (BKN), Tadas Sedekerskis (BKN), Arturs Kurucs (BKN)

Best Bets for Success: The fourth game up features arguably the hottest player in the league, as Wade Baldwin has played so well of late that he is now the priciest player on the board. Over his last five games Baldwin posted marks of 20.2 points, 3.2 rebounds, 5.8 assists, 1.6 steals and 1.4 triples -- good for an average of 36.0 DraftKings points per contest. Zenit will be zeroed-in on Baldwin, and there's some risk of a blowout, as the Russian club won by a whopping 29 points last time these teams met. However, they are only favored by a few points in this one, and if Baskonia keeps the game close it will likely be at Baldwin's behest. Zenit has two players who qualify here for Round 23 in Jordan Loyd and Jordan Mickey. Loyd has been as consistent as they come, putting up at least 15.0 DraftKings points in every game, and he put up 36.5 points on that website when these teams met in Round 7. Mickey should continue seeing extra minutes with Gudaitis still out, and he will take on a Baskonia team that ranks bottom-3 against frontcourt players in points, rebounds, assists, threes and FGA per game.

DFS Darlings: That same situation also bodes well for Alex Poythress, who put up at least 21.3 DraftKings points four times over his last six appearances and despite a price jump remains an affordable $8,000. Zenit ranks top-2 against forwards in all of the points, rebounds, threes and FGA categories, which takes the shine off of both Rokas Giedraitis and Simone Fontecchio. Should Peters and Costello remain out, though, both players are likely to play 30 minutes like they did in Round 23. The Russian team is allowing centers to get pretty involved, so in the same scenario, Steven Enoch would likely be one of the better upper-end values available at an even $9,000.

FC Bayern Munich at FC Barcelona

Status Check: Darrun Hilliard (BAY), Paul Zipser (BAY), Nihad Djedovic (BAY), Cory Higgins (BAR), Sertac Sanli (BAR), Alex Abrines (BAR), Pierre Oriola (BAR)

Best Bets for Success: The last game on the list is expected to be the least competitive, with the home team favored by roughly 10 points. Bayern now sits in the eighth spot in the standings after going 4-1 over their last five games, but none of those wins came against a team the caliber of Barcelona, so they could use a big night from Vladimir Lucic if they hope to continue their run. Lucic is not dominating like he did in December, but he is down to a more reasonable $9,300 on DraftKings and has returned 3x value seven times at that price. Nikola Mirotic remains the clear frontrunner for the home team, having put at least 24.5 fantasy points seven times over his last nine appearances. He is returning some of the most average value on the board, but he was held in check by Bayern last time these teams met, and he will have to overcome a tough matchup, as Bayern ranks top-4 against forwards in five of the six counting stats and are allowing players at those positions to get up the fewest shots per game.

DFS Darlings: With Higgins back on the shelf, three Barcelona guards will be worthy of consideration. Nick Calathes is due for a breakout soon and is returning some of the most value on the board, though he does carry some playing time risk. Nicolas Laprovittola is roughly the same price and may be a bit more safe based on his game log. Last but not least is Rokas Jokubaitis, who dropped down to a meager $7,200 on DraftKings. The matchups don't leave a lot to like on the Bayern side, as Barcelona is allowing guards to get up a lot of shots but not do much else. Deshaun Thomas earns a mention, though, with his price falling to just $6,400. 

The author(s) of this article may play in daily fantasy contests including – but not limited to – games that they have provided recommendations or advice on in this article. In the course of playing in these games using their personal accounts, it's possible that they will use players in their lineups or other strategies that differ from the recommendations they have provided above. The recommendations in this article do not necessarily reflect the views of RotoWire. Kevin O'Brien plays in daily fantasy contests using the following accounts: FanDuel: kevob100, DraftKings: kevob100.
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ABOUT THE AUTHOR
Kevin O'Brien
Kevin mans the Packers and Brewers beats and moonlights as RotoWire's Director of Operations.
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