F1 DFS Picks and Preview: Miami Grand Prix

F1 DFS Picks and Preview: Miami Grand Prix

Crypto.com Miami Grand Prix

Location: Miami, Fl.
Course: Miami International Autodrome
Course Length: 5.41km
Laps: 57

Miami Grand Prix Race Preview

It's no surprise that Red Bull has dominated the season through four races, as either Sergio Perez or Max Verstappen has won every grand prix. The duo has finished 1-2 in three of four race weekends to this point. If there is to be any drama regarding the driver championship this season, it will have to come from Perez challenging his Red Bull teammate. He's looked up to the task early on, as he sits only six points behind Verstappen through four rounds. This is likely to be part of the calendar best suited to Perez because it features a lot of street or otherwise unconventional circuits, so we should still expect Verstappen to pull away in the long run. For now, we can enjoy the gradually building tension in the Red Bull paddock.

Elsewhere on the grid, Ferrari finally got on track in Azerbaijan, tallying third and fifth-place finishes from Charles Leclerc and Carlos Sainz Jr., respectively. Neither will realistically fight for the driver championship, but Ferrari is back in the mix for the fight for second place in the Constructor Standings with Mercedes and Aston Martin.

McLaren appears to be the best of the rest, as they've tallied points in each of the last two race weekends after failing to do so in the first two. That has pushed them ahead of Alpine, which has arguably been the biggest disappointment early on. Reliability issues and the crash at the end of the Australian Grand Prix have held the team back overall.

Key Stats at Miami International Autodrome

  • Races: 1
  • Winners from pole: 0
  • Winners from top-5 starters: 1
  • Winners from top-10 starters: 1

Miami International Autodromo Track Preview

F1 continues to expand in America, and this weekend we get the first of three races in the United States. It's the second year Miami that Miami is hosting a grand prix, and in last year's race there was a lack of grip to the roughness of the surface. Heading into 2023, the entirety of the 5.41 km track has been resurfaced, leaving tire wear and the rubbering in effect of the new surface as relatively unknown variables. A potential wild card is the weather, as Miami is known for sudden and heavy rain, which could wreak havoc on any of the sessions of the weekend.

The characteristics of the track itself remain unchanged. The majority of the Autodrome is taken up by 19, predominantly slow, turns. There's an exceptionally long straight to balance that out. Pirelli has provided C2,C3, and C3 tires for the weekend, so expect most teams to turn to a one-stop strategy and run either medium or hard tires.

DraftKings Value Picks  

DraftKings Tier 1 Values

Max Verstappen - $14,600
Sergio Perez - $11,600

DraftKings Tier 2 Values

Fernando Alonso - $9,400
Lewis Hamilton - $9,000
George Russell - $8,400

DraftKings Tier 3 Values

Lance Stroll - $6,400
Lando Norris - $6,000
Oscar Piastri - $4,800

DraftKings Tier 4 Values

Yuki Tsunoda - $4,400
Niko Hulkenberg - $3,600
Logan Sargeant - $3,000

DraftKings Constructor Values

Red Bull Racing - $13,300
Aston Martin - $8,900
McLaren - $4,400
Williams - $3,100

Formula 1 DFS Picks for Miami Grand Prix

Captain – Sergio Perez - $17,400
Fernando Alonso - $9,400
Pierre Gasly - $5,800
Oscar Piastri - $4,800
Nico Hulkenberg - $3,600
Constructor- Aston Martin - $8,900

We're at another street race, so the immediate question becomes whether Perez's success at the untraditional circuits is luck or a particular skill. Either way, he's a value compared to his Red Bull teammate, as it costs $21,900 to roster Verstappen in the captain slot. In order for him to pay off that price tag he'd have to win and lead nearly every lap – though that isn't out of the question.  

Alonso has been the most consistent driver outside of the pair of Red Bulls, as no other driver has surpassed Alonso's 20.3 DK points per race average. AT the fourth-highest price tag, he's slightly mispriced.

Piastri has yet to have a breakthrough performance but he's shown his skill plenty. The downside is that he's extremely unlikely to beat McLaren teammate Lando Norris, but the team introduced upgrades last weekend that quickened the pace of the cars. That doesn't seem to be baked into his price at this point, giving him a significant chance of outperforming his salary this weekend.

Hulkenberg doesn't have the results Haas would hope for, but he's reached Q3 in all but one race this season. Sargeant is the only cheaper option, and the Williams is faster than Haas in a straight line, so they could take advantage of the long straight.

Finally, Alpine has underperformed this season but has the pace for points finishes. As the cheaper of the two options, Gasly fits the build.  

 Formula 1 Betting Picks for the Miami Grand Prix

Winner – Sergio Perez (+330), Fernando Alonso (+1400)

Top-Six – Lando Norris (+225), Oscar Piastri (+1000)

Top-10 – Yuki Tsunoda (+175), Nico Hulkenburg (+275)

Much of the same logic applies to the betting section as the DFS picks. Generally speaking, I'd be betting on McLaren and Aston Martin to perform well this weekend relative to their odds. Ferrari has the pace to compete with Aston Martin but both the drivers and the team as a whole have made mistakes to cost them points early this season in a continuation from 2022.

Tsunoda is the one driver that has yet to be mentioned in this article, but he's taken strides as a driver and is being held back by his Alpha Tauri machiner. He's finished no lower than 11th in any race this season and has a pair of points finishes.

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ABOUT THE AUTHOR
Dan Marcus
Dan started covering fantasy sports in 2015, joining Rotowire in 2018. In addition to Rotowire, Dan has written for Baseball HQ and Rotoballer.
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