F1 DFS Picks and Preview: Pirelli Grand Prix du Canada

F1 DFS Picks and Preview: Pirelli Grand Prix du Canada

 Pirelli Grand Prix du Canada 

Location: Montreal, Quebec
Course: Circuit Gilles Villeneuve
Course Length: 4.36km
Laps: 70

Canadian Grand Prix Preview

After only seven races it seems all but certain that Max Verstappen will win his third consecutive Driver Championship with Red Bull ready to take home its second consecutive Constructor Championship. Unfortunately, that leaves little drama atop the standings for the final two-thirds of the calendar. Luckily, the race for second in the constructor standings is heating up as Mercedes has found form with a reimagination and ultimately retooling of their zero sidepod concept. They've now pulled back ahead of Aston Martin, while also a comfortable 52 points ahead of Ferrari. If Ferrari can unlock some more performance soon, we could see a three-team scuffle down the stretch. 

As was already noted, Verstappen is running away with Driver Championship. However, Sergio Perez has given away points in each of the last two races, allowing both Fernando Alonso and Lewis Hamilton to significantly close the gap to him for second position. While that doesn't carry the same significance as winning second in the Constructor Standings, hopefully we'll see some intriguing battles in Canada and beyond between these drivers. 

Key Stats at Circuit Gilles Villeneuve

  • Races: 41
  • Winners from pole: 20
  • Winners from top-5 starters: 34
  • Winners from top-10 starters: 41

Previous 10 Winners

2022- Max Verstappen 
2019 - Lewis Hamilton
2018 - Sebastian Vettel
2017 - Lewis Hamilton
2016 - Lewis Hamilton
2015 - Lewis Hamilton
2014 - Daniel Ricciardo
2013 - Sebastian Vettel
2012 - Lewis Hamilton
2011 - Jenson Button

The Canadian Grand Prix always offers great racing, so perhaps this is the weekend we finally get competition toward the top of the field. The track is similar to Melbourne Park in the sense that it is built through a public park and utilizes public roads. The asphalt is typically smooth, meaning we'll see the track ramp up drastically throughout the weekend. That means we shouldn't put much stock into P1, and we could also see some surprising eliminations in Q1 of qualifying if teams mistime their hot laps.

Pirelli will send the three softest sets of tires for the weekend. The C5 will be the most popular during qualifying, leaving the two harder compounds for the race. The track is dominated by low-speed corners, so traction and maneuverability will be the keys to the weekend.

DraftKings Value Picks

DraftKings Tier 1 Values

Max Verstappen - $14,800

DraftKings Tier 2 Values

Lewis Hamilton - $10,200
Fernando Alonso - $10,000

DraftKings Tier 3 Values

Esteban Ocon - $6,400
Pierre Gasly - $5,600
Yuki Tsunoda - $5,000

DraftKings Tier 4 Values

Oscar Piastri - $4,600
Zhou Guanyu - $3,600
Nyck De Vries - $3,000

Formula 1 DFS Picks for the Canadian Grand Prix

Max Verstappen – Captain - $22,200
Lewis Hamilton - $10,200
Pierre Gasly - $5,600
Zhou Guanyu - $3,600
Nyck De Vries - $3,000
Alpine – Constructor - $5,400

At this point, the only things that can stop Verstappen are himself or car failures. The latter is unpredictable, so we'll build around the obvious selection despite the cost. 

Mercedes has all the momentum and Hamilton has reestablished himself as the top driver on the team. He's gone 5-2 against George Russell this season, which helps build in some points to his score. Hamilton has also finished no lower than sixth this season, so while the highs aren't as high as we've come to expect, there also haven't been very many lows.

From there, it's time to hunt for value as we don't have enough salary to select anyone above the Tier 3 price range. Of the Alpine drivers, I'd rather get to Esteban Ocon, as he's put together consecutive stellar races. By results, he looks to have a significant advantage over Gasly. There are two things that arguably change that dynamic. The first is obvious in that Gasly is $800 cheaper. The other is that Gasly originally qualified fourth for the Spanish Grand Prix but received two grid penalties for impeding during qualifying and was bumped to 10th on the grid as a result. By raw speed, he was just as fast as Ocon last weekend, if not faster. Finally, we should want exposure to Alpine, which is pretty clearly the fifth-best team on the grid.

We drop into Tier 4 from there, with the priority now being to save money for a decent constructor. The Alfa Romeo isn't a great car, but Zhou has shown the ability to get the most out of it with top-13 finishes in four of seven races this season and points finishes twice. He's also defeated teammate Valtteri Bottas three times, so he should have the chance to pick up those points well. For the first several races, de Vries looked like he was simply overmatched in his opening season in F1. He's quietly finished 14th and 12th in the last two races and has escaped Q1 in four of the last five grand prix. For the minimum price, that's not bad form.

We circle back to Alpine, as that gives us the benefit of the best midfield car as well as a stack of a driver in the lineup with a constructor.

Formula 1 Betting Picks for the Canadian Grand Prix

Podium Finish – Lewis Hamilton (-110), Fernando Alonso (-110)
Race winner without Red Bull, Ferrari, Mercedes, or Aston Martin – Esteban Ocon (+150), Pierre Gasly (+175)
Top-10 finish – Yuki Tsunoda (+220), Zhou Guanyu (+450)
Winning Margin – Between 5 and 10 seconds (+350)

It feels a bit odd to skip over a race winner, but there's really no upside to betting it. Verstappen is rightfully the heavy favorite (-350). If we were to look for alternatives, I'd be interested in Hamilton (+1000) or Alonso (+1600), which makes them both nice bets for podiums.

Things become more interesting when we eliminate the top teams, which leaves us to focus on the Alpine drivers. If you really felt like getting aggressive, there's a lot of value to betting either Ocon (+2200) or Gasly (+2500) for a podium. A more realistic bet could be that Alpine will be the race-winning car without the top teams, though they're a significant favorite to do so (-190).

As for points finishes, we saw Tsunoda and Zhou battle for a top-10 finish in Spain. Tsunoda drew a controversial penalty that knocked him outside the top-10 to the benefit of Guyanyu. The value on either is excellent.

The winning margin is tricky, as Canada has rarely been a setting for blowout wins. The last four races have all been decided by under 10 seconds, though we know Verstappen has been dominant this season. He's won the last two races by 27 and 24 seconds, respectively. 

The author(s) of this article may play in daily fantasy contests including – but not limited to – games that they have provided recommendations or advice on in this article. In the course of playing in these games using their personal accounts, it's possible that they will use players in their lineups or other strategies that differ from the recommendations they have provided above. The recommendations in this article do not necessarily reflect the views of RotoWire. Dan Marcus plays in daily fantasy contests using the following accounts: FanDuel: marcusd91 DraftKings: dmarcus87.
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Dan Marcus
Dan started covering fantasy sports in 2015, joining Rotowire in 2018. In addition to Rotowire, Dan has written for Baseball HQ and Rotoballer.
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