F1 DFS Picks and Preview:  Qatar Airways Hungarian Grand Prix

F1 DFS Picks and Preview: Qatar Airways Hungarian Grand Prix

Qatar Airways Hungarian Grand Prix

Location: Mogyorod, Hungary
Course: Hungaroring
Course Length: 4.38km
Laps: 70

Hungarian Grand Prix Race Preview

Last time out at the British Grand Prix, Red Bull Racing and Max Verstappen continued their domination of the 2023 season. The defending champion qualified on pole, but was briefly challenged at the start by McLaren's Lando Norris. Despite popping into the lead, the pace of the Red Bull over the course of a full race was never in doubt. Verstappen made the pass for the lead on lap five and never looked back. He led the remaining 48 laps and added another win to his 2023 tally. His point lead over teammate Sergio Perez now stands at a whopping 99 points, and it looks like just a matter of time before his third series championship is in the books. He and Red Bull will be working to win every race of the season, though. The Hungarian Grand Prix is next on that list to conquer, and Verstappen enters the Hungarian Grand Prix weekend as the defending winner, too.

Key Stats at Hungaroring

  • Races: 37
  • Winners from pole: 16
  • Winners from top-5 starters: 33
  • Winners from top-10 starters: 35
  • Winners from 21st or lower starters: 0
  • Fastest race: 193.557 kph

Previous 10 Hungary Winners

2022 - Max Verstappen
2021 - Esteban Ocon
2020 - Lewis Hamilton
2019 - Lewis Hamilton
2018 - Lewis Hamilton
2017 - Sebastian Vettel
2016 - Lewis Hamilton
2015 - Sebastian Vettel
2014 - Daniel Ricciardo
2013 - Lewis Hamilton

The Hungaroring is a slower, challenging circuit often that is often compared to Monaco without the buildings and boats. It is a high-downforce track where overtaking can be extremely difficult. Multiple winners have gotten the job done despite not having the fastest car in the field. Defensive driving can pay dividends if track position can be gained. Adverse weather can also jumble the finishing order, and surprises are not out of the question. The track first hosted Formula 1 in 1986 and this will be the 38th race at the track since then. While the race can be affected by weather, heat is often a factor, too. The summer months in central Europe can get quite warm and humid, which taxes the drivers on the technical circuit where they spend very little time not turning. Given that track position can be such an important factor, this race can also be won or lost on pit strategy. Making a stop to get a driver out from behind slower traffic can sometimes be more effective than making a pass happen on the track, and teams that keep their drivers out too long in traffic can find their chances ruined.

DRAFTKINGS VALUE PICKS for the Hungarian Grand Prix (Based on Standard $50K Salary Cap)

DraftKings Tier 1 Values  

Max Verstappen - $15,000
Lewis Hamilton - $10,000
Lando Norris - $8,200

DraftKings Tier 2 Values  

Carlos Sainz Jr. - $7,800
George Russell - $7,200
Oscar Piastri - $6,600
Lance Stroll - $6,000

DraftKings Tier 3 Values

Esteban Ocon - $5,600
Daniel Ricciardo - $5,000
Alex Albon - $4,400

DraftKings Constructor Values

Red Bull Racing - $13,800
Mercedes AMG Motorsport - $9,500
Ferrari - $8,900
McLaren - $7,500

Formula 1 DFS Picks for the Hungarian Grand Prix

Team Captain - Max Verstappen - $22,500
Lando Norris - $8,200
Pierre Gasly - $5,200
Daniel Ricciardo - $5,000
Alex Albon - $4,400
Constructor - Alpine - $4,500

Max Verstappen's dominance makes him a must-choose each and every week, and fantasy players pay a premium for that, too. He is the defending winner of this race and seems unbeatable at the moment. Barring any failures or weather impacts, this Hungarian Grand Prix is Verstappen's to lose. Coming to the fore recently, though, is Lando Norris. The McLaren driver showed his hunger at the start of the British Grand Prix, and could put himself into position to challenge Verstappen at the start again this week. Norris and McLaren are making their claim on the midfield battle, and Norris should be a good choice this week as he and the team are still demonstrating their progress and the price point becomes too high for fantasy rosters. Alpine's Pierre Gasly may be worth considering this week despite his DNF at Silverstone. He finished sixth or better in three of his five Hungary starts and has been in the top-10 battle nearly every race so far this season. 

Fantasy players may also want to take advantage of Daniel Ricciardo's return to the grid. He is stepping in for Nyck De Vries, who was unceremoniously dumped by Alpha Tauri last week. Ricciardo is a former Hungarian Grand Prix winner and is fighting to be taken into the Red Bull senior squad. He has all the incentive to get the maximum from the car this week and prove he deserves a full-time return to the series. Perhaps an easy choice down the grid for rosters this week is Alex Albon. The Williams driver is punching above his weight right now and has two top-10 finishes from his three starts in this race. He finished 11th or better in the three most recent races and in the points two of those times. Albon should be an inexpensive option with the potential for significant upside this week.

As far as the team choice goes, the favorites are quite expensive. Some creative driver choices deeper in the field could free up enough budget to get one of the top five or six choices, but with this lineup the answer is Alpine. The team has had a tough stretch of races recently, but they were the strongest of the bunch earlier in the season. As other teams have developed their cars, Alpine was passed. However, that means they should have relatively less development in order to regain their place. They won this race in 2021, and they were on the podium at Monaco, too. If there is any track where they could return to their midpack lead, it is Hungary.

Formula 1 Betting Picks for the Hungarian Grand Prix (Odds from DraftKings Sportsbook)

Race Winner - Max Verstappen -300, Lewis Hamilton +1400
Winning Constructor - Red Bull Racing -400, Ferrari +750, Mercedes +900
Winning Margin - Between 5-10 seconds +350
Fastest Lap - Sergio Perez +450
Safety Car - No +120

As with fatasy prices, odds for Max Verstappen winning this week are not a value. Those looking for a bigger payout, with great risk of course, should take a look at Lewis Hamilton. The Mercedes driver has consistently been on the podium recently, and Mercedes race strategy is among the best. A creative pit approach this week could get Hamilton into position to defend the lead. Everything will have to be inch perfect to pull it off, but Mercedes is the team that should be there to pick up the pieces if Red Bull comes apart. 

Similarly, the choices for winning team offer more valuable looking outside of Red Bull. Ferrari has consistently demonstrated one-lap speed in qualifying, but their race pace and finishes leave much to be desired. Mercedes is probably the better option here, and seeing them pull off the upset over Red Bull would not be a huge surprise.

As far as prop bets go, winning margin may be one for fans to look at and play in tandem with a safety car bet. Verstappen has regularly built up winning gaps well over 10 seconds, but late safety car periods have chopped that gap down. Hungary is a place where a safety car could be likely and if one comes later in the race there is a high likelihood that the Red Bull will not pull out as much of a gap as in past races. In the scenario, fans should pick the "Yes" safety car option, and a lower winning margin selection. Those that do think the leader will win by more than 10 seconds should go the "No" route on the safety car appearance bet and couple it with a higher winning margin option.

The author(s) of this article may play in daily fantasy contests including – but not limited to – games that they have provided recommendations or advice on in this article. In the course of playing in these games using their personal accounts, it's possible that they will use players in their lineups or other strategies that differ from the recommendations they have provided above. The recommendations in this article do not necessarily reflect the views of RotoWire. C.J. Radune plays in daily fantasy contests using the following accounts: DraftKings: cjradune, RaceDayScore: cjradune.
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ABOUT THE AUTHOR
C.J. Radune
Radune covers NASCAR, Formula 1 and soccer for RotoWire. He was named the Racing Writer of the Year by the Fantasy Sports Writers Association in 2012 and 2015.
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