This article is part of our Survivor series.
This is always a tough column - not Survivor per se - but Week 1 Survivor because you can lose your entire investment before the season really gets started. I know this because last year I was on the Patriots, and they lost the opening Thursday night game. I was bounced on literally the first of the 256 regular-season games to be played.
But the truth about this contest is it doesn't matter when you lose - only that you don't lose - at least until you're close enough to chop some of the pot with fellow survivors in the end game. Accordingly, the goal is not merely to survive, but to do so while others perish. In order to achieve this aim, it's often necessary to take on added short-term risk. For a full rundown of the underlying principles of Survivor play (and also the rules) you can click here and here.
Before you go further, please click those links. I'll be drawing on concepts like "pot odds" and "pool equity" throughout the season, and they'll make more sense if you grasp the underlying framework.
Okay, without further ado, let's take a look at the Week 1 slate:
| Team | Opponent | %Taken* | Vegas ML** | Vegas Odds | Expected Loss |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SAINTS | Buccaneers | 31.50% | 417.5 | 80.68 | 6.09 |
| RAVENS | Bills | 21.30% | 290 | 74.36 | 5.46 |
| PACKERS | Bears | 14.60% | 330 | 76.74 | 3.40 |
| LIONS | Jets | 10.80% | 267.5 | 72.79 | 2.94 |
| VIKINGS | 49ers | 5.60% | 230 | 69.70 | 1.70 |
| Steelers | BROWNS | 4.40% | 200 | 66.67 | 1.47 |
| PATRIOTS | Texans |
This is always a tough column - not Survivor per se - but Week 1 Survivor because you can lose your entire investment before the season really gets started. I know this because last year I was on the Patriots, and they lost the opening Thursday night game. I was bounced on literally the first of the 256 regular-season games to be played.
But the truth about this contest is it doesn't matter when you lose - only that you don't lose - at least until you're close enough to chop some of the pot with fellow survivors in the end game. Accordingly, the goal is not merely to survive, but to do so while others perish. In order to achieve this aim, it's often necessary to take on added short-term risk. For a full rundown of the underlying principles of Survivor play (and also the rules) you can click here and here.
Before you go further, please click those links. I'll be drawing on concepts like "pot odds" and "pool equity" throughout the season, and they'll make more sense if you grasp the underlying framework.
Okay, without further ado, let's take a look at the Week 1 slate:
| Team | Opponent | %Taken* | Vegas ML** | Vegas Odds | Expected Loss |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SAINTS | Buccaneers | 31.50% | 417.5 | 80.68 | 6.09 |
| RAVENS | Bills | 21.30% | 290 | 74.36 | 5.46 |
| PACKERS | Bears | 14.60% | 330 | 76.74 | 3.40 |
| LIONS | Jets | 10.80% | 267.5 | 72.79 | 2.94 |
| VIKINGS | 49ers | 5.60% | 230 | 69.70 | 1.70 |
| Steelers | BROWNS | 4.40% | 200 | 66.67 | 1.47 |
| PATRIOTS | Texans | 3.10% | 260 | 72.22 | 0.86 |
| Rams | RAIDERS | 1.50% | 190 | 65.52 | 0.52 |
* According to "polling" data on Officefootballpools.com
** Average of the two moneylines
My Picks
1. New Orleans Saints
The Saints are one of the league's best teams, and they're facing the Ryan Fitzpatrick-led Bucs at home. They're the most highly used team (31 percent), but it's not enough to move the needle for me. I give them an 84 percent chance to win this game.
2. Baltimore Ravens
The Ravens offense was among the worst in the league last year, and the Bills defense might be okay. That's the only thing giving me pause, but the Ravens defense should go to town against Nathan Peterman at home. I give Baltimore a 79 percent chance to win this game.
3. Green Bay Packers
Aaron Rodgers owns the Bears, and the Packers are playing at home, but the Bears offense should improve this year, and they just added Khalil Mack to an already solid defense. My feeling, though, is it'll take some time for the Bears to integrate all the new parts. I give the Packers a 77 percent chance to win this game.
Notable Omissions:
Detroit Lions - They should handle the Jets at home, but they're not good defensively, and the Jets will be okay if Sam Darnold is ready.
Minnesota Vikings - Arguably the best team in the NFL, the Vikings have a tough Week 1 draw against a well-coached, up-and-coming 49ers squad.
New England Patriots - The Texans should have beaten them last year but for a Bill O'Brien punt, the Patriots had no answer for Deshaun Watson and New England's losses often come early in the year before they've made necessary adjustments.
Los Angeles Rams - The Rams are good, but no reason to use them on the road in this spot.
