This article is part of our NFL Picks series.
Last week's picks were a mixed bag, which unfortunately was an improvement from the previous week. I successfully missed both the Chiefs and Chargers scoring 25 points (+235) in their 24-17 game in Mexico City, and while Ezekiel Elliott scored two touchdowns in the Cowboys' win over the Lions, he only racked up 45 rushing yards on 16 carries, ruining that combo at +150. However, the three double-digit favorites were each able to cover 3.5-point spreads (49ers won 36-26, Vikings won 27-23 and Raiders won 17-10) to hit that +164 parlay, while the Saints beat the Buccaneers by more than 4.5 in a game that went over 43.5 (it was 34-17), allowing that +160 bet to be positive.
We're going to rely on the RotoWire Staff Picks for a few selections this week, as there are two unanimous picks and four games with four of five people on the same side, so let's see how well the guys can help us.
Jets +3 vs. Raiders and Redskins +3.5 vs. Lions parlay (+265)
The Jets and Redskins were the two unanimous picks this week, so let's combine them for a much more fun payout. While Washington comes in at 1-9, with their lone win coming at home against the Dolphins in Week 6, the Lions haven't been much better, losing six of their past seven, defeating the Giants in Week 8 for their lone win over that span, and they are still without starting quarterback Matthew Stafford. Meanwhile, the Jets are the hottest team in the NFL have won two in a row, scoring 34 points in each game, and host a West Coast team in an early game.
Titans -3.5, Dolphins +10.5, Seahawks +1.5, Bengals +6.5 parlay (+1174) or Titans -3.5, Dolphins +10.5, Eagles -1.5, Bengals +6.5 parlay (+1230)
This parlay is derived from the Staff Picks' best bets, but we had to show two of them because Chris Liss' best bet is actually against Dalton Del Don's (Seahawks and Eagles). Looking at their best bet records of 5-6 this season, maybe we should just toss them out and only go with a three-game parlay that pays +581.
Dolphins +10.5 at Browns, Broncos +4 at Bills, Giants +6 at Bears, Panthers +9.5 at Saints, Titans -3.5 vs. Jaguars (+2440)
First off: this is a really stupid bet, but it's what we have from Staff Picks among the teams that were picked by four of five guys. I'll also point out that they picked the Titans -3, but it has moved to -3.5 and the Broncos moved from +4 to +3.5 (closing line value!). Adding in the two unanimous picks discussed above makes the parlay worth +9170, but again, this is risky enough to be considered stupid and only here for observational purposes.
Saints -7.5 and over 38.5 points (+115)
Moving away from the insanity, we have a simpler parlay that obviously doesn't pay as well but it's more likely to hit. The Saints are 9.5-point favorites against the Panthers in a game with a 45.5-point total, with the primary concern that the Panthers don't score enough to reach the over (in fact, the under is at -105 versus -115 for the over). However, lowering the total while also giving the Saints two extra points of legroom seems more than reasonable. If you think the Panthers can hold their side, Saints -7.5 and over 46.5 points is +220.
Matt Ryan to have most FanDuel Fantasy Points Among Quarterbacks (+500)
Ryan is the favorite to finish as the highest-scoring player at his position Sunday, with Russell Wilson +800 and Drew Brees +1000 the next two. Ryan has a prime matchup against a Buccaneers defense that's allowed the most fantasy points per game to quarterbacks this season among teams on Sunday's slate, and given their excellence against the run coupled with the Falcons' struggles on that front, the recipe is there for Ryan to have a huge game.
Derrick Henry anytime touchdown and Titans win (+155)
The Titans -3.5 was a popular pick by our staff, but we don't even need the points for this bet, only the win and a touchdown from Henry, who is facing off against a Jaguars defense that allowed three touchdowns to running backs in the past two games, which came against the Texans (one touchdown) and Colts (two). With Henry having such a big role in the offense, it's no surprise that he has the best anytime touchdown odds in the game at -125, and a small combo of that with a Titans win (they're -186 on the moneyline) gets us a better payout.
