This article is part of our Survivor series.
Well, that was unfortunate. I had the Patriots last week, and they couldn't handle the Broncos at Foxborough. Maybe it was foolish to take a team whose QB had COVID and who couldn't practice regularly, but that's what I did. I also faded the 44-percent-owned Dolphins who cruised to a win that was never remotely in doubt.
Even so, I'd do it again this week -- and I will -- (except hopefully pick a team other than the Pats given the circumstances.) For a detailed explanation of why I do it this way and the math behind it, click here and here.
That said, I hate to lose as much as anyone, so having a basis for what I did doesn't erase that. It's just that I go into the Survivor season expecting to lose (remember in a pool of size x, your odds are 1 in x, all things being equal), and so I'm less averse to risk where the upside warrants it.
| Team | Opponent | %Taken* | Vegas ML** | Vegas Odds | Expected Loss |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bills | JETS | 55.10% | 600 | 85.71 | 7.87 |
| CHARGERS | Jaguars | 14.50% | 340 | 77.27 | 3.30 |
| SAINTS | Panthers | 10.90% | 330 | 76.74 | 2.53 |
| Chiefs | BRONCOS | 10.60% | 425 | 80.95 | 2.02 |
| EAGLES | Giants | 4.30% | 200 | 66.67 | 1.43 |
| Packers | TEXANS | 1.30% | 175 | 63.64 | 0.47 |
| RAMS | Bears | 0.70% | 240 | 70.59 | 0.21 |
| Browns | BENGALS | 0.70% | 160 | 61.54 | 0.27 |
Home teams in CAPS
* According to "polling" data on Officefootballpools.com
** Average of the two moneylines
Well, that was unfortunate. I had the Patriots last week, and they couldn't handle the Broncos at Foxborough. Maybe it was foolish to take a team whose QB had COVID and who couldn't practice regularly, but that's what I did. I also faded the 44-percent-owned Dolphins who cruised to a win that was never remotely in doubt.
Even so, I'd do it again this week -- and I will -- (except hopefully pick a team other than the Pats given the circumstances.) For a detailed explanation of why I do it this way and the math behind it, click here and here.
That said, I hate to lose as much as anyone, so having a basis for what I did doesn't erase that. It's just that I go into the Survivor season expecting to lose (remember in a pool of size x, your odds are 1 in x, all things being equal), and so I'm less averse to risk where the upside warrants it.
| Team | Opponent | %Taken* | Vegas ML** | Vegas Odds | Expected Loss |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bills | JETS | 55.10% | 600 | 85.71 | 7.87 |
| CHARGERS | Jaguars | 14.50% | 340 | 77.27 | 3.30 |
| SAINTS | Panthers | 10.90% | 330 | 76.74 | 2.53 |
| Chiefs | BRONCOS | 10.60% | 425 | 80.95 | 2.02 |
| EAGLES | Giants | 4.30% | 200 | 66.67 | 1.43 |
| Packers | TEXANS | 1.30% | 175 | 63.64 | 0.47 |
| RAMS | Bears | 0.70% | 240 | 70.59 | 0.21 |
| Browns | BENGALS | 0.70% | 160 | 61.54 | 0.27 |
Home teams in CAPS
* According to "polling" data on Officefootballpools.com
** Average of the two moneylines
This week, there's one massively-used team again, the Bills, and, like the Dolphins last week, they draw the Jets. This is another easy fade for me, even though I agree wholeheartedly the Bills have the best chance to win this week.
My Picks
1. New Orleans Saints
The Saints are home, off a bye and getting Michael Thomas back against a Panthers team that got exposed a little bit last week. I don't trust Drew Brees entirely anymore, but he should do enough to win. I give the Saints an 80 percent chance to win this game.
2. Kansas City Chiefs
The market number would take the Chiefs over the Saints, and I couldn't fault anyone who agreed with it. I don't love that they're on the road, and they've gotten away from the big-play strikes from the past couple years, something that makes this great offense more ordinary. I give the Chiefs a 78 percent chance to win this game.
3. Los Angeles Chargers
The Chargers should handle a Jaguars team that's played like a doormat the last four weeks. I give them a 75 percent chance to win this game.
4. Buffalo Bills
I don't have to explain this. The Bills should roll, but they're fourth because if the Jets wake up, they'll take down more than half your pool, and you want to be there for that. I give the Bills an 87 percent chance to win this game.
Notable Omissions:
Los Angeles Rams: I'm fading the Bills, but Rams over a top defensive team is a bridge too far. I expect the Rams to win, but I could also see them get into a low-scoring smash-mouth contest where things go south.
Philadelphia Eagles: The Giants are a bad team, but the Eagles are missing so many key skill players and offensive linemen, while New York actually has a decent defense.
