Surviving Week 7

Surviving Week 7

This article is part of our Survivor series.

Well, that was unfortunate. I had the Patriots last week, and they couldn't handle the Broncos at Foxborough. Maybe it was foolish to take a team whose QB had COVID and who couldn't practice regularly, but that's what I did. I also faded the 44-percent-owned Dolphins who cruised to a win that was never remotely in doubt. 

Even so, I'd do it again this week – and I will – (except hopefully pick a team other than the Pats given the circumstances.) For a detailed explanation of why I do it this way and the math behind it, click here and here

That said, I hate to lose as much as anyone, so having a basis for what I did doesn't erase that. It's just that I go into the Survivor season expecting to lose (remember in a pool of size x, your odds are 1 in x, all things being equal), and so I'm less averse to risk where the upside warrants it. 

TeamOpponent%Taken*Vegas ML**Vegas OddsExpected Loss
BillsJETS55.10%60085.717.87
CHARGERSJaguars14.50%34077.273.30
SAINTSPanthers10.90%33076.742.53
ChiefsBRONCOS10.60%42580.952.02
EAGLESGiants4.30%20066.671.43
PackersTEXANS1.30%17563.640.47
RAMSBears0.70%24070.590.21
BrownsBENGALS0.70%16061.540.27

Home teams in CAPS
* According to "polling" data on Officefootballpools.com 
** Average of the two moneylines                    

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ABOUT THE AUTHOR
Chris Liss
Chris Liss is RotoWire's Managing Editor and Host of RotoWIre Fantasy Sports Today on Sirius XM radio.
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