This article is part of our Survivor series.
Well, that was unfortunate. I had the Patriots last week, and they couldn't handle the Broncos at Foxborough. Maybe it was foolish to take a team whose QB had COVID and who couldn't practice regularly, but that's what I did. I also faded the 44-percent-owned Dolphins who cruised to a win that was never remotely in doubt.
Even so, I'd do it again this week – and I will – (except hopefully pick a team other than the Pats given the circumstances.) For a detailed explanation of why I do it this way and the math behind it, click here and here.
That said, I hate to lose as much as anyone, so having a basis for what I did doesn't erase that. It's just that I go into the Survivor season expecting to lose (remember in a pool of size x, your odds are 1 in x, all things being equal), and so I'm less averse to risk where the upside warrants it.
|Team||Opponent||%Taken*||Vegas ML**||Vegas Odds||Expected Loss|
Home teams in CAPS
* According to "polling" data on Officefootballpools.com
** Average of the two moneylines