Well, that sucked. I had the Chiefs in my third and final Survivor pool, and while they got jobbed on a couple calls in the first half, it was tied 24-24, and the Raiders flat outplayed them at Arrowhead for the final 30 minutes.
I faded the highly-owned Cowboys, who were on the ropes, but pulled it out, and I passed on the Saints, who barely held on to a win thanks to a missed FG by Michael Badgley at the end of regulation.
In retrospect, the Ravens (who I had used) and the Cardinals were the best plays, though some commenters rightly suggested the Texans. (The Steelers and Seahawks won, but both were in jeopardy late, while the 49ers got crushed.)
Let's take a look at Week 6:
| Team | Opponent | %Taken* | Vegas ML** | Vegas Odds | Expected Loss |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DOLPHINS | Jets | 43.60% | 340 | 77.27 | 9.91 |
| PATRIOTS | Broncos | 23.50% | 330 | 76.74 | 5.47 |
| COLTS | Bengals | 13.50% | 340 | 77.27 | 3.07 |
| Ravens | EAGLES | 7.70% | 320 | 76.19 | 1.83 |
| VIKINGS | Falcons | 2.60% | 170 | 62.96 | 0.96 |
| GIANTS | Football Team | 1.40% | 140 | 58.33 | 0.58 |
| STEELERS | Browns | 1.40% | 175 | 63.64 | 0.51 |
| Rams | 49ERS | 1.10% | 170 | 62.96 | 0.41 |
| TITANS | Texans | 1.10% | 250*** | 71.43 | 0.31 |
| Lions | JAGUARS | 1.10% | 170 | 62.96 | 0.41 |
Home teams in CAPS
* According to "polling" data on Officefootballpools.com
** Average of the two moneylines
Well, that sucked. I had the Chiefs in my third and final Survivor pool, and while they got jobbed on a couple calls in the first half, it was tied 24-24, and the Raiders flat outplayed them at Arrowhead for the final 30 minutes.
I faded the highly-owned Cowboys, who were on the ropes, but pulled it out, and I passed on the Saints, who barely held on to a win thanks to a missed FG by Michael Badgley at the end of regulation.
In retrospect, the Ravens (who I had used) and the Cardinals were the best plays, though some commenters rightly suggested the Texans. (The Steelers and Seahawks won, but both were in jeopardy late, while the 49ers got crushed.)
Let's take a look at Week 6:
| Team | Opponent | %Taken* | Vegas ML** | Vegas Odds | Expected Loss |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DOLPHINS | Jets | 43.60% | 340 | 77.27 | 9.91 |
| PATRIOTS | Broncos | 23.50% | 330 | 76.74 | 5.47 |
| COLTS | Bengals | 13.50% | 340 | 77.27 | 3.07 |
| Ravens | EAGLES | 7.70% | 320 | 76.19 | 1.83 |
| VIKINGS | Falcons | 2.60% | 170 | 62.96 | 0.96 |
| GIANTS | Football Team | 1.40% | 140 | 58.33 | 0.58 |
| STEELERS | Browns | 1.40% | 175 | 63.64 | 0.51 |
| Rams | 49ERS | 1.10% | 170 | 62.96 | 0.41 |
| TITANS | Texans | 1.10% | 250*** | 71.43 | 0.31 |
| Lions | JAGUARS | 1.10% | 170 | 62.96 | 0.41 |
Home teams in CAPS
* According to "polling" data on Officefootballpools.com
** Average of the two moneylines *** Made up number (not available yet)
This should be an interesting week, as no team is above 78 percent per Vegas. Apparently, people want to fade the Jets, so even the Dolphins -- after their win in San Francisco -- are getting heavy use (44 percent.) The Jets are terrible, to be sure, but especially if Sam Darnold plays, I'd fade the Dolphins this week.
My Picks
1. New England Patriots
Make sure Cam Newton is playing, but if so, this should be an easy one for the Pats, coming off a bye, at home. Drew Lock should be back, but on a normal team he'd be a liability, not an asset. I give the Newton Patriots an 80 percent chance to win this game.
2. Baltimore Ravens
They're on the road, but it's a short trip against an Eagles team that has few healthy receivers and a decimated offensive line. I give the Ravens a 76 percent chance to win this game.
3. Indianapolis Colts
The Colts have a good team, while the Bengals looked awful last week, but Philip Rivers gives virtually anyone a puncher's chance. I give the Colts a 73 percent chance to win this game.
4. Minnesota Vikings
They're only 3.5-point favorites for some reason, but they just beat the Texans in Houston and went toe-to-toe on the road with the Titans and Seahawks, two of the league's four undefeated teams. I give the Vikings a 72 percent chance to win this game.
Notable Omissions:
Miami Dolphins -- I get fading the Jets, but this is a divisional game, and if the bad Ryan Fitzpatrick shows up, a lot of people will get knocked out of your pool.
New York Giants -- Yes, this is your only chance to use them, but remember, you don't need to use all 32 teams as there are only 17 weeks.
Pittsburgh Steelers -- They should handle Baker Mayfield at home, but the Browns offensive line and defense have been solid early on.
Los Angeles Rams -- The Niners looked awful last week, but a divisional road game against Kyle Shanahan is a pass for me.
Tennessee Titans -- They looked great, but will have a short week, and who knows how much Bill O'Brien was holding the Texans back?
Detroit Lions -- Does this really require an explanation?
