This article is part of our Survivor series.
Last week almost had a seismic event as the Giants pushed the 55-percent-owned Rams, but Danny Dimes threw a pick to end the game. Otherwise, among the big favorites only the Cowboys and 49ers lost, taking four percent of pools with them.
Let's take a look at this week's slate:
| Team | Opponent | %Taken* | Vegas ML** | Vegas Odds | Expected Loss |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| COWBOYS | Giants | 26.00% | 395 | 79.80 | 5.25 |
| RAVENS | Bengals | 17.60% | 825 | 89.19 | 1.90 |
| CHIEFS | Raiders | 11.10% | 712.5 | 87.69 | 1.37 |
| PATRIOTS | Broncos | 10.60% | 330 | 76.74 | 2.47 |
| Cardinals | JETS | 9.20% | 290 | 74.36 | 2.36 |
| Rams | FOOTBALL TEAM | 4.90% | 330 | 76.74 | 1.14 |
| STEELERS | Eagles | 4.80% | 297.5 | 74.84 | 1.21 |
| SEAHAWKS | Vikings | 4.40% | 290 | 74.36 | 1.13 |
| 49ERS | Dolphins | 4.00% | 330 | 76.74 | 0.93 |
| SAINTS | Chargers | 3.60% | 330 | 76.74 | 0.84 |
| TEXANS | Jaguars | 2.00% | 240 | 70.59 | 0.59 |
Home teams in CAPS
* According to "polling" data on Officefootballpools.com
** Average of the two moneylines
The Cowboys look like a fade to me, despite less than overwhelming ownership. The Ravens and Chiefs are the best plays if you still have them. Keep an eye out later in the week for developments in the Cardinals-Jets (Sam Darnold), Chargers-Saints (Marshon Lattimore/Michael Thomas), Patriots-Broncos (Cam Newton) and 49ers-Dolphins (Jimmy Garoppolo.)
My Picks
1. Kansas City Chiefs
The Raiders have offensive line injuries, and their defense isn't good. The Chiefs should roll at home, provided they don't go too vanilla in anticipation of next week's matchup with the Bills. I give the Chiefs a 90 percent
Last week almost had a seismic event as the Giants pushed the 55-percent-owned Rams, but Danny Dimes threw a pick to end the game. Otherwise, among the big favorites only the Cowboys and 49ers lost, taking four percent of pools with them.
Let's take a look at this week's slate:
| Team | Opponent | %Taken* | Vegas ML** | Vegas Odds | Expected Loss |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| COWBOYS | Giants | 26.00% | 395 | 79.80 | 5.25 |
| RAVENS | Bengals | 17.60% | 825 | 89.19 | 1.90 |
| CHIEFS | Raiders | 11.10% | 712.5 | 87.69 | 1.37 |
| PATRIOTS | Broncos | 10.60% | 330 | 76.74 | 2.47 |
| Cardinals | JETS | 9.20% | 290 | 74.36 | 2.36 |
| Rams | FOOTBALL TEAM | 4.90% | 330 | 76.74 | 1.14 |
| STEELERS | Eagles | 4.80% | 297.5 | 74.84 | 1.21 |
| SEAHAWKS | Vikings | 4.40% | 290 | 74.36 | 1.13 |
| 49ERS | Dolphins | 4.00% | 330 | 76.74 | 0.93 |
| SAINTS | Chargers | 3.60% | 330 | 76.74 | 0.84 |
| TEXANS | Jaguars | 2.00% | 240 | 70.59 | 0.59 |
Home teams in CAPS
* According to "polling" data on Officefootballpools.com
** Average of the two moneylines
The Cowboys look like a fade to me, despite less than overwhelming ownership. The Ravens and Chiefs are the best plays if you still have them. Keep an eye out later in the week for developments in the Cardinals-Jets (Sam Darnold), Chargers-Saints (Marshon Lattimore/Michael Thomas), Patriots-Broncos (Cam Newton) and 49ers-Dolphins (Jimmy Garoppolo.)
My Picks
1. Kansas City Chiefs
The Raiders have offensive line injuries, and their defense isn't good. The Chiefs should roll at home, provided they don't go too vanilla in anticipation of next week's matchup with the Bills. I give the Chiefs a 90 percent chance to win this game.
2. Baltimore Ravens
The Bengals have a puncher's chance, so I like the Chiefs much better, but at home and facing a soft Bengals defense, the Ravens should be able to pull away. I give the Ravens an 84 percent chance to win this game.
3. New Orleans Saints
I like Justin Herbert, and the Saints offense has only been so-so, but Michael Thomas should be back, Marshon Lattimore might be back, and the Chargers are missing Melvin Ingram and Austin Ekeler. I give the Saints a 78 percent chance to win this game.
4. New England Patriots
If Cam Newton plays, I'd bump them up to No. 2 on the list. The Broncos are on the road with a rookie QB against the league's best secondary. I give the Newton Patriots an 87 percent chance to win this game, and the Jarrett Stidham Patriots a 75 percent chance.
5. Arizona Cardinals
If Sam Darnold plays, put this in the "Notable Omissions" category. If it's Joe Flacco, I'd consider using them, despite the lackluster play and the cross-country trip for an early body-clock game. Flacco is Brian Hoyer at this point, and in that case I'd give the Cardinals a 78 percent chance to win this game.
Notable Omissions:
Dallas Cowboys -- Their defense is terrible, and the Giants played much better last week.
Los Angeles Rams -- It's an early-body-clock road game against a decent defense, especially if Chase Young is back.
Pittsburgh Steelers -- The Eagles showed up last week, and the Steelers have been good, but not dominant.
Seattle Seahawks -- The Seahawks can light anyone up, but the Vikings have played better the last two weeks and will score points too.
San Francisco 49ers -- If C.J. Beathard is the QB, I don't trust them against a game Dolphins team.
Houston Texans -- They might not be that much better than the Jaguars.
