NFL Line Movement: NFL Week 9 Odds, Over/Unders and Spreads
The goal of this article is to look at the key line moves for the week and what they mean in terms of betting. Key numbers in the NFL to watch for are 3, 7, 6, 14, and 10. When a line crosses through one of these, it warrants significant attention.
On the totals side, the key numbers are 41, 43, 37, 44, 51, 33, 47.
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NFL Week 9 Odds (Opening/Current)
Week 9 NFL Lines (odds via BetMGM)
Baltimore Ravens at Miami Dolphins (Ravens -5.5 O/U 47.5) / (Ravens -7.5 50.5 O/U 50.5)
San Francisco 49ers at New York Giants (49ers -3.5 O/U 44.5) / (49ers -2.5 O/U 48.5)
Atlanta Falcons at New England Patriots (Patriots -3.0 O/U 44.5) / (Patriots -5.5 O/U 45.0)
Minnesota Vikings at Detroit Lions (Lions -4.5 O/U 47.5) / (Lions -8.5 O/U 48.5)
Carolina Panthers at Green Bay Packers (Packers -7.5 O/U 45.5) / (Packers -13.0 O/U 44.0)
Los Angeles Chargers at Tennessee Titans (Chargers -4.5 O/U 44.5) / (Chargers -9.5 O/U 43.5)
Indianapolis Colts at Pittsburgh Steelers (Steelers -3.5 O/U 44.5) / (Colts -3.0 O/U 50.5)
Denver Broncos at Houston Texans (Broncos -1.5 O/U 45.5) / (Texans -1.5 O/U 39.5)
Chicago Bears at Cincinnati Bengals (Bengals -3.0 O/U 48.5) / (Bears -3.0 O/U 51.5)
Jacksonville Jaguars at Las Vegas Raiders (Raiders -1.5 O/U 45.5) / (Jaguars -3.0 O/U 44.5)
New Orleans Saints at Los Angeles Rams (Rams -9.5 O/U 44.5) / (Rams -14 O/U 44.0)
Kansas City Chiefs at Buffalo Bills (Bills -2.5 O/U 48.5) / (Chiefs -2.0 O/U 52.5)
Seattle Seahawks at Washington Commanders (Commanders -5.5 O/U 47.5) / (Seahawks -3.0 O/U 47.5)
Arizona Cardinals at Dallas Cowboys (Cowboys -1.5 O/U 47.5) / (Cowboys -2.5 O/U 54.0)
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NFL Week 9 Key Injury News
QB - Joe Burrow, Brock Purdy, Carson Wentz, Kyler Murray, Bryce Young, Jayden Daniels, Michael Penix, Joe Flacco, Mac Jones
RB - Austin Ekeler, Joe Mixon, Cam Skattebo, Najee Harris, Antonio Gibson, Omarion Hampton, Bucky Irving, Trey Benson, James Conner, Braelon Allen, Jaylen Warren, Kendre Miller, Quinshon Judkins
WR - Malik Nabers, Ricky Pearsall, Darnell Mooney, Mike Evans, Tyreek Hill, Darius Slayton, Jalen Coker, Cedric Tillman, Brandon Aiyuk, Marvin Harrison, DJ Moore, Puka Nacua, Garrett Wilson, Joshua Palmer, Christian Kirk, Calvin Ridley, Brian Thomas, Drake London, Marvin Mims, Christian Kirk, Nico Collins, A.J. Brown, Chris Godwin
TE - Colston Loveland, George Kittle, Brock Bowers, David Njoku, Brenton Strange, Darren Waller
Other notables
OL Landon Dickerson, LB Matt Milano, LB Jack Sanborn, DB Terrion Arnold, S Justin Reid, OL Ronnie Stanley, DT Ed Oliver, OL Taylor Decker, OL Rashawn Slater, OL Jake Matthews, LB Fred Warner, DE Grady Jarrett, DE Trey Hendrickson, CB Trevon Diggs, S Jaylen Reed, DE Maxx Crosby, CB Sauce Gardner, CB Patrick Surtain, DE Marcus Davenport
NFL Week 9 Odds Observations
- The highest spread is Saints vs Rams -14.0
- The lowest spread is Texans vs Broncos -1.5
- There are 4 games with a line of 8.5 points or higher (Rams, Packers, Chargers, Lions)
- The highest total game is Cardinals vs Cowboys 54.0; the lowest total is Texans vs Broncos 40.0
- There are 7 road favorites in Week 7
- There is a heavy concentration of totals between 50-54 points and 44-45 points
- The highest team totals are Ravens, Lions, Rams, Packers, Cowboys, Chargers, Bears
- The lowest team totals are Saints, Panthers, Titans, Falcons, Vikings
NFL Week 9 Line Movement
A quarterback is the only position that can significantly move an NFL point spread, and a top-tier QB can be worth up to seven or more points. For all other positions, the impact is minimal and usually less than a single point, unless multiple players on the same unit are injured. When a unit has multiple starters out, it is often overlooked in the handicapping world. OL, DL, secondary, and WR are the units that are impacted the most.
Carolina Panthers at Green Bay Packers
The Packers opened as -7.5 home favorites and we saw it jump to -10.5 on the reopen on October 21st. The line continued to move in favor of the Packers on October 27th to -13.0 (5.5 point line move). The line move is two-fold as the Packers became one of the favorites in the NFC, but the public just does not trust the Panthers, who were blown out at home by the Bills 40-9.
Indianapolis Colts at Pittsburgh Steelers
The Colts have seen their power rating improve the most of any team since the start of the season and their line movement reflects that. The Steelers opened as -3.5 home favorites, but the Colts are now -3.0 road favorites for a 6.5-point line move.
The Colts have scored at least 29 points in 6 out of 7 games and their only loss was at the Rams 27-20. The total opened 44.5 and has also moved a whopping 6.0 points all the way up to 50.5. You rarely see a total move this much, but the combination of the Colts offense and Steelers defense is the reason why.
Seattle Seahawks at Washington Commanders
This line move is still mostly the Jayden Daniels situation, but the Commanders looked lifeless on Monday Night Football against the Chiefs. Daniels is listed as questionable and expected to come back Sunday, so this line could swing back towards the Commanders.
The Commanders opened as -5.5 home favorites, but the line has moved all the way to Seahawks -3.5 road favorites for a total of a 9.0 line move. The total opened 47.5 and dropped to a low of 45.5 before coming back up to 46.5.
Other notable line moves
Patriots -3.0 to -6.5
Lions -4.5 to -9.0
Chargers -4.5 to -9.0
Bears +3.0 to -2.0
Jaguars +1.5 to -3.0
Chiefs +2.5 to -2.0
Cardinals/Cowboys 47.5 to 54.0
Broncos/Texans 45.5 to 40.0
49ers/Giants 44.5 to 49.0
