Surviving Week 6

Surviving Week 6

This article is part of our Survivor series.

Last week was hilarious – the Patriots, Vikings and Ravens were all dead to rights, but somehow prevailed, keeping virtually every team alive, as the Bucs and Cowboys cruised to easy wins. 

 Let's take a look at Week 6:

TeamOpponent%Taken*Vegas ML**Vegas OddsExpected Loss

Home teams in CAPS
* According to "polling" data on 
** Average of the two moneylines
*** Game in London

The Rams and Colts stand apart, both in winning percentage and usage. The question is whether the Chiefs, the next best choice, make sense from a pot-odds perspective. 

A Rams win/Chiefs loss is .85*.25 = 21.25%. A Chiefs Win/Rams loss is 11.25%. The ratio of 21.25/11.25 = 1.89. 

In our hypothetical $10 buy-in, 100-person pool, if the Rams win/Chiefs lose, 12 are out on the Chiefs and 11 on other teams, for a total of 23. 100-23 = 77, $1000/77 = $12.99. 

If the Chiefs win/Rams lose, 37 are out on the Rams plus 11 on other teams for a total of 48. $1000/52 = $19.23. The ratio of $19.23/$12.99 = 1.48. 

The risk ratio is 1.89, reward only 1.48. That

Want to Read More?
Subscribe to RotoWire to see the full article.

We reserve some of our best content for our paid subscribers. Plus, if you choose to subscribe you can discuss this article with the author and the rest of the RotoWire community.

Get Instant Access To This Article Get Access To This Article
RotoWire Community
Join Our Subscriber-Only NFL Chat
Chat with our writers and other RotoWire NFL fans for all the pre-game info and in-game banter.
Join The Discussion
Chris Liss
Chris Liss is RotoWire's Managing Editor and Host of RotoWIre Fantasy Sports Today on Sirius XM radio.
Surviving Week 14
Surviving Week 14
Beating The Book
Beating The Book
Target Breakdown: Week 13 WR/TE Recap & Week 14 Sleepers
Target Breakdown: Week 13 WR/TE Recap & Week 14 Sleepers
NFL Injury Analysis: Turf Burns Edition
NFL Injury Analysis: Turf Burns Edition