ADP Analysis: Fallout From a Wild March

ADP Analysis: Fallout From a Wild March

This article is part of our ADP Analysis series.

With the first and second waves of free agency in the books, it's time to look at how some of the big moves impacted ADP in early drafting fantasy leagues. For this purpose, we'll use data from MFL10s 12-team best balls, with our first sample covering Feb. 20 - March 6, while the second dataset comes from March 24 to April 7.

Those dates were chosen because March 5-23 was the busiest stretch of NFL news, starting with the Calvin Ridley suspension and ending with the Tyreek Hill trade. Things have been awfully quiet since the 23rd, but we should mention three fantasy-relevant moves that have happened since then (and thus won't be fully accounted for in recent ADP numbers. Those moves: A) WR Marquez Valdes-Scantling signs with KC (Mar. 24), B) RB Ronald Jones signs with KC (Mar. 26), and C) WR DeVante Parker is traded to New England (Apr. 2).

Ignoring those three moves, let's check out some of the key ADP moves from the past few weeks, along with a list of my favorite values at each position based on recent draft results:

Quarterback     

Mitchell Trubisky 📈

QB32 (226.0) ➡️ QB28 (197.9)

Rumors and pre-draft visits connect the Steelers to nearly every well-known rookie QB, but that likely would've been the case for any team that signed Trubisky as its probable/possible starter. Pittsburgh is a better-than-average landing spot, featuring a good coaching staff, strong defense and talented group of pass catchers. 

   

Aaron Rodgers 📉

QB8 (ADP 76.9) ➡️ QB11 (91.1)

This seems fair given that Rodgers lost Davante Adams and MVS, but you have to figure the Packers will add receiving talent in the coming weeks/months. It's annoying that they won't go all-in for what could be Rodgers' final few years, but the team isn't foolish - Rodgers will get some weapons soon enough; just not of Adams' caliber. Replacing MVS is far, far easier.

Meanwhile, QB Derek Carr went from QB18 (122.0) to QB17 (116.1), which doesn't sound like much until we account for Brady re-entering the picture. Still, reaction to the Adams trade so far shows drafters punishing Aaron Rodgers more than they're rewarding Carr.

      

QB Best Values

Kyler Murray - QB7 (74.8)

 Derek Carr - QB17 (116.1)

 Mac Jones - QB22 (148.3)

     

Running Backs

Leonard Fournette 📈

RB23 (55.0) ➡️ RB16 (31.1) 

Anyone who has Fournette in a dynasty league should be thrilled with the events of this offseason. He likely showed enough last year to land a starting job elsewhere, but outside of Tampa he might've been part of a committee. In Tampa, he should reprise last year's workload, more or less, barring injury or an early draft pick at RB. Tom Brady's return helps Fournette a ton, and RoJo's departure can't hurt.

     

Myles Gaskin 📉

RB48 (149.0) ➡️ RB60 (194.5) 

Early results suggested that most drafters expected Gaskin to be replaced, and the Phins did in fact end up signing Chase Edmonds and Raheem Mostert. It's mostly the former whose presence has cratered Gaskin's value, with Edmonds' history of handling passing downs possibly leaving Gaskin without a meaningful role. They're fairly similar backs, and neither is a bad value (Edmonds - RB38) after the Dolphins added Tyreek Hill and LT Terron Armstead. Even if Tua is just okay, the team's running game should be improved from last year.

    

RB Best Values

Alvin Kamara - RB11 (19.4)

Michael Carter - RB25 (54.8)

Devin Singletary - RB31 (81.1)

Miles Sanders - RB35 (90.4)

James Robinson - RB43 (129.2)

    

Wide Receivers

  Jerry Jeudy & Courtland Sutton 📈

Jeudy: WR34 (79.5) ➡️ WR26 (61.5)

Sutton: WR43 (98.8) ➡️ WR33 (72.1)

Early results show Sutton moving up a little more than Jeudy on the heels of the Russell Wilson trade, though I'd argue the gap between them remains too large. Jeudy was the better prospect coming out of college, but he's yet to play at the level Sutton reached in 2019. And while Jeudy missed games last year, Sutton missed much of the offseason rehabbing an ACL tear.

   

Hunter Renfrow 📉

WR23 (53.8) ➡️ WR29 (64.2) 

If Renfrow plays as well as he did last year, he'll still reach 100 targets, but the addition of Davante Adams definitely takes a chunk out of the slot machine's ceiling. It would've been awesome for Renfrow('s dynasty managers) if the Raiders had come away from the offseason with a lower-volume deep threat (say, Marquez Valdes-Scantling) instead of Adams. Alas...

WR Best Values

Mike Evans - WR14 (32.6)

Terry McLaurin - WR18 (46.6)

Michael Pittman - WR23 (54.3)

DeVonta Smith - WR31 (70.2)

Allen Robinson - WR35 (74.1)

Gabriel Davis - WR37 (80.0)

Drake London - WR46 (109.8)

Jarvis Landry - WR52 (135.5)

Allen Lazard - WR62 (156.5)

     

Tight Ends

Albert Okwuegbunam 📈

TE23 (184.9) ➡️ TE15 (136.7) 

This is a fair price in best ball, where you worry about taking zeros at TE and might avoid someone unproven who is at risk of landing in a committee. On the other hand, I'd take Okwuegbunam earlier than this in a relatively shallow league where I'm picking him as a TE2. His combination of physical gifts and offseason QB upgrade creates a 1,000-yard ceiling, something we can't say for guys like Hunter Henry and Cole Kmet in the same range. Talk about striking gold... Wilson in, Fant out.

TE Best Values

Darren Waller - TE5 (50.7)

 Tyler Higbee - TE20 (155.5)

 Brevin Jordan - TE29 (223.1)

   

Other ADP Notes

  • QB Deshaun Watson rose from QB15 (112.9) to QB13 (108.9), but that's maybe a bit deceiving because he, Justin Fields, Kirk Cousins, Trey Lance and Derek Carr all have ADPs between 108 and 117 in the recent sample. Watson is first among that group, and still not that close to QB12 (Jalen Hurts, 96.8).
  • QB Matt Ryan is QB20 in both samples, but given the Brady impact and a slight rise on overall ADP (137.4 to 133.7), there is some boost for the 36-year-old following his move to Indy.
    • Tua Tagovailoa is QB19 in both samples, with nearly identical overall ADPs. That seems weird, given that his team traded for Tyreek Hill recently, though I'd argue that Tua was overvalued before rather than undervalued currently. Apologies to TuAnon.
    • Jameis Winston (QB27 > QB26) is another one who didn't rise that much after positive news (re-signing with the Saints) but mostly because he was overvalued before. He's coming off an ACL tear, and might've been forced to take a backup job if the Saints had landed Deshaun Watson. Plus, there's still some chance he faces competition from a rookie, be it early or late in the season. I'd rather draft Trubisky, who isn't coming off a major ligament tear and offers more upside for rushing stats.
  • RB Javonte Williams nudged ahead of Dalvin Cook, rising from RB7 (9.9) to RB6 (8.5). Cook comes with more injury risk, but he also comes with a guaranteed huge workload whenever healthy. Williams may very well have a similarly huge role, or he could cede a large chunk of the snaps/touches again. I'd take Cook over Williams, even now that the former has a better QB leading his offense.
  • RB Aaron Jones bumped up from RB16 to RB14, and teammate AJ Dillon also moved two spots (28>26). Aaron Rodgers returning is fantastic news for both, and Davante Adams' departure could end up working in favor of the RBs (or not... TBD).
  • RB Breece Hall shot up from RB21 (46.5) to RB17 (32.2). That seems fair, given his 4.39 40 and 40-inch vertical (at 217 pounds). 
    • Kenneth Walker jumped from RB34 (87.5) to RB28 (73.3)
  • RB James Conner went from RB27 (69.7) to RB23 (45.9), having re-signed with Arizona while Chase Edmonds went off to Miami. That could leave Conner to handle the three-down role in which he produced as a rock-solid RB1 for a decent chunk of last season. Even with the injury history and possible competition coming from the draft, I like Conner in the fourth round more than I like most of the third-round guys.
  • WR Tyreek Hill dropped from WR5 (12.4) to WR7 (17.1). I'd drop him a little further, to the end of the second round instead of the early/middle part. 
  • WR Davante Adams is WR4 in both samples. Which makes sense, given that he avoided the worst-case scenario (playing without Rodgers in Green Bay) but also missed the best-case scenario (playing with Rodgers in Green Bay). The Vegas outcome isn't too bad for dynasty managers.
  • WR CeeDee Lamb hasn't moved up that much after the Amari Cooper trade, partly because everyone was already expecting a breakout.
    • Lamb went from WR9 (23.3) to WR8 (20.8), leapfrogging A.J. Brown. I'm agnostic between the two, figuring Lamb has a better volume projection while Brown's probably the better real-life player. Both are strong picks late in the second round.
    • Cooper, meanwhile, is up from WR24 to WR20. He'll see a lot of targets this year, but maybe from Baker Mayfield or Jacoby Brissett (rather than Deshaun Watson) for a large chunk of the season.
  • Jaylen Waddle (WR11 > WR10) has actually been drafted ever so slightly earlier in the wake of the Tyreek Hill trade. I understand the optimism about Miami, but that's just silly. Volume matters, a lot, and Waddle no longer ranks among the favorites to lead the league in targets.
    • The fine print: I think Waddle can be as good or better than Hill soon... perhaps even by the end of 2022 or early 2023.
  • DK Metcalf dropped from WR10 to WR15. I'd probably drop him even more than that; he didn't play all that well last year, and the Seahawks don't have a realistic path to good QB play this season. Their best hope is striking gold with one of the rookies, and that's  a long shot if we're talking about 2022 performance rather than long-term.
  • Zach Ertz only bumped from TE11 to TE10 after re-signing with Arizona. I'd put him a bit higher, at TE9, as he has a good QB and fairly weak competition for targets. Ertz was a busy man late last season for the Cards.

      

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ABOUT THE AUTHOR
Jerry Donabedian
Jerry was a 2018 finalist for the FSWA's Player Notes Writer of the Year and DFS Writer of the Year awards. A Baltimore native, Jerry roots for the Ravens and watches "The Wire" in his spare time.
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