This Best Ball Strategy entry will identify five running backs whose ADPs are higher than they should be. It's not to say these players aren't worth picking at all, but more arguing they are only worth hedge-level exposure at their current prices, which are otherwise not justified by the projections. It would be better yet to only target these players when they fall past their ADP.
Regardless of whether you're a limited drafter in best ball or one who drafts for volume, you'll want your NFL best ball strategy to make a regular practice of questioning the ADP so that you can generally avoid overpayments like these.
Check out the industry-leading fantasy football live draft assistant to get custom rankings for your league and follow along with a live draft on most major platforms!
Five RB Fades
Kaleb Johnson, PIT (68.7 Underdog)
Johnson might appear to have tempting upside, or at least that's the only seeming explanation for why he'd go ahead of players like D'Andre Swift (70.9), Isiah Pacheco (75.0) or Tony Pollard (81.8), all of whom will actually start for their teams.
Johnson will likely play off the bench behind Jaylen Warren (98.7). Any assumption to the contrary is based on pretty much nothing other than the reductive reasoning that a player with vague draft capital (Johnson) will always overrule a player with lesser draft capital (Warren).
Draft capital can tilt a competition to the benefit of the player with greater capital, but as a selection in the
This Best Ball Strategy entry will identify five running backs whose ADPs are higher than they should be. It's not to say these players aren't worth picking at all, but more arguing they are only worth hedge-level exposure at their current prices, which are otherwise not justified by the projections. It would be better yet to only target these players when they fall past their ADP.
Regardless of whether you're a limited drafter in best ball or one who drafts for volume, you'll want your NFL best ball strategy to make a regular practice of questioning the ADP so that you can generally avoid overpayments like these.
Check out the industry-leading fantasy football live draft assistant to get custom rankings for your league and follow along with a live draft on most major platforms!
Five RB Fades
Kaleb Johnson, PIT (68.7 Underdog)
Johnson might appear to have tempting upside, or at least that's the only seeming explanation for why he'd go ahead of players like D'Andre Swift (70.9), Isiah Pacheco (75.0) or Tony Pollard (81.8), all of whom will actually start for their teams.
Johnson will likely play off the bench behind Jaylen Warren (98.7). Any assumption to the contrary is based on pretty much nothing other than the reductive reasoning that a player with vague draft capital (Johnson) will always overrule a player with lesser draft capital (Warren).
Draft capital can tilt a competition to the benefit of the player with greater capital, but as a selection in the second half of the third round Johnson is far from a memorable prospect. What Johnson has going for him is that he is built to withstand mammoth volume at 6-foot-1, 224 pounds, and that for a player who can withstand such massive volume Johnson can make interesting plays in the open field when he gets room to work with.
The problem in the meantime is that those two traits do nothing to address Johnson's immediate ability in the two areas most crucial for running back fantasy value: (1) passing-down snaps and (2) goal-line snaps.
Johnson is big, but he is not functionally powerful unless he builds up speed first, and that requires open space. Johnson has a high center of gravity by running back standards, and this makes him a poor projection for short yardage, especially relative to the 5-foot-8 Warren. Warren is listed at 215 pounds, making his anchor much lower and heavier than Johnson's and making Warren the better short-yardage player.
Meanwhile, Johnson basically didn't play passing downs in three years at Iowa, leading NFL.com's Lance Zierlein to declare Johnson is "unlikely to be trusted with third-down protection duties."
For Johnson to pay off at his ADP he would need to claim almost the entire previous workload of Najee Harris – 296 touches from scrimmage in 2024 – but especially in Year 1 it's unfair to expect Johnson to match Harris, who was trusted in blitz pickup and possesses more anchor than Johnson. If so many as 50 of those Harris touches go to Warren then it's a problem for Johnson's margins.
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Aaron Jones, MIN (83.5 Underdog)
This one is a bummer since Jones was a great player for such a long time, but he'll be 31 in December and already showed decline in 2024. There would be reason to fade Jones at this ADP even if the Vikings hadn't acquired Jordan Mason.
Jones simply was not very good in 2024. Despite reaching 17 or more carries eight times in 2024, Jones ran for over 100 yards just twice with a high of just 106 yards. The Aaron Jones of yore would have had much more to show for such usage volume. If a running back has as many fumbles (five) as rushing touchdowns then the program has been a failure.
That's why the Vikings acquired Mason. Jones even at his peak lacked for anchor power and general ability to withstand collision, and those problem won't improve with age 30. Mason is built more like a tank and therefore can withstand and dish out a lot more punishment than Jones.
If this is an even split then Jones' current price is simply too high, and coach Kevin O'Connell already stated that he envisions this as a 1A/1B backfield. It isn't a good NFL best ball strategy to prioritize split-backfield running backs in the first seven rounds, especially if they aren't going to get short-yardage touchdown opportunities.
Brian Robinson, WAS (86.3 Underdog)
Robinson will likely start for Washington again in 2025 and as long as that's the case he can't be that bad as a fantasy pick. You could probably do worse in this range of the ADP. You could also do better, though, and Robinson isn't without his risks.
More certainly yet, though, Robinson clearly is without any hint of upside due to his sluggish activity from scrimmage. Robinson is a plodder and needs either volume or touchdowns to offset his inability to run way from defenders.
The presence of Austin Ekeler is a major roadblock to Robinson's volume as a receiver where, to be fair to Robinson, he's clearly more effective from scrimmage than he is as a runner. Robinson is clearly below-average as a pure runner by starter standards, but as a receiver his 80 career targets yielded an excellent 7.3 yards per target on an 81.3-percent catch rate.
Given that, Robinson could have real upside if Ekeler were to miss time and if a guy like Jeremy McNichols doesn't take the vacated usage. In the meantime, though, Robinson had only 25 targets in 2024, and McNichols is a former receiver who absolutely would be a candidate to directly replace Ekeler, at Robinson's pass-catching expense.
Guys like Rhamondre Stevenson (122.8) and Javonte Williams (129.6) have similar or better projections than Robinson at several rounds later. It would be a better best ball strategy to target those cheaper alternatives for floor, and if it's upside you're specifically chasing then options like Jordan Mason (91.8), Travis Etienne (96.2) and Zach Charbonnet (115.7) are preferable to Robinson, too.
Tyjae Spears, TEN (124.8 Underdog)
Another bummer entry here. Spears is a good football player for sure and is more specifically one of the most naturally elusive players to enter the league over some number of years. The problem is his durability.
Spears is light in general at around 200 pounds, but one of his knees in particular is an issue and will likely preclude Spears from heavy workloads for the entirety of his NFL career. He has no ACL in one knee due to repeated trauma to the ligament, and Ian Rapoport stated before the 2023 draft that Spears' knee was already in an arthritic state. An arthritic knee needs its workload carefully managed.
Throw in two concussions from last year and you've got one of the most durability-challenged players in a long time. Spears can be a great player off the bench for the Titans, and if that's all you need from him then you could certainly do worse than selecting Spears, especially if he falls past ADP.
At his current price, however, it probably isn't a good best ball strategy to regularly target Spears. Guys like Rhamondre Stevenson (122.8) and Javonte Williams (129.6) can handle 20-carry workloads if necessary, granting them vastly superior upside to Spears and with no trade-off on their weekly floor. Spears is unfortunately a lot of risk for not much upside.
Jaydon Blue, DAL (150.1 Underdog)
While the recent rumors of Blue's underwhelming OTA showings are not welcome news for Blue's prior investors, there was never a good case for his price. He was never going to start for Dallas, not even ostensibly, yet best ball drafters pretty clearly got their hopes up that Blue could be the next Bucky Irving or whatever.
Blue is no such thing. Even if it works out for Blue he will almost certainly never be a starter. Blue (5-9, 196) runs with memorably poor anchor and he runs with a slight hunch that makes it difficult for him to change direction more than once in a run. One cutback is fine, but if Blue has to weave through the defense he's liable to just lose his footing and fall over.
What Blue has going for him is easy deep speed and the potential to develop as a pass catcher. If Blue can harness that rare speed into a standout pass-catcher skill set then he could become a useful fantasy asset. Blue seems to have some innate ability as a downfield receiver, so that is a potential calling card for him in the NFL.
In the meantime, though, Blue is a fumbler who can't pick up the blitz and can't execute a wide variety of run play designs. This means Blue will almost certainly top out as a gadget player, especially in 2025.
Javonte Williams of course has his issues, but he doesn't fumble much and he's trustworthy in blitz pickup. That's why he'll start for Dallas all of 2025, health permitting. If Williams misses time then Miles Sanders and even Phil Mafah would likely rank ahead of Blue for carries. There's a strong if not highly likely chance Blue never gets higher than third on the Cowboys depth chart all year.
Perhaps Blue's price will lower to a suitable point in light of the disappointing reports, but for now he's one of the worst targets you could set aside in your 2025 best ball fantasy football strategy.
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