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Odds Picks and Predictions for Sunday Night Football: Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Dallas Cowboys
The Buccaneers head into Dallas for a key late-season game for their quest to win the NFC South crown. Meanwhile, the Cowboys hang on to the last vestiges of their playoff hopes at 6-8 as they continue to push forward with Cooper Rush at quarterback.
Let's dive into the latest odds plus bets and predictions for the prime-time showdown.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Dallas Cowboys Betting Odds
*Best lines at time of writing listed
Moneyline: Buccaneers -198 (FanDuel Sportsbook)/ Cowboys +180 (DraftKings Sportsbook)
Point spread: Buccaneers -3.5 (-118 FanDuel Sportsbook)/ Cowboys +4 (Caesars Sportsbook)
Totals: Under 48.5 points (BetMGM Sportsbook)/ Over 48.5 points (DraftKings Sportsbook)
The spread for this game has fluctuated somewhat, but ultimately, it landed right back where it was before Week 15 action. The number was at Buccaneers -4 late last week before jumping up to -5 after both teams turned in double-digit wins Sunday. The number then to -3.5 by late in the week and it's bounced between that figure and -4 since then.
The projected total has been on a bit of a rollercoaster ride in its own right. The number was at 47 before Week 15, but after the two teams combined for 70 points Sunday, it shot up to 49 and then 49.5 during the first half of the week. It eventually dipped all the way back to 48 and has bounced between that number and 48.5 since then.
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Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Dallas Cowboys Betting Picks
This game total underscores the expectation this will be an entertaining late-season battle, and the on-field product is very likely to deliver. To begin with, Tampa Bay is a team that has proven highly capable of racking up points, even in tough matchups on the road like its Week 15 win over the Chargers. Then, the Bucs force plenty of teams to the air on defense due to their above-average ability to stop the run, particularly on the road (86.1 RYPG allowed).
On the other side, Rush become a very viable leader of the offense the more he's played. We saw similar flashes from the veteran backup back in 2022 as well, but Rush looks even better in this second extended starting stint of his career with a 10:3 TD:INT and 14 completions of 20 yards or more.
Part of the reason for his success is the balance provided by lead back Rico Dowdle, who has rattled off three straight 100-yard games on the ground and needs just 120 more yards to hit 1,000 for the first time in his career. Again, Dowdle's matchup here is less than ideal, but he should be able to claw out his fair share of yards given his typical workload and the fact Dallas' passing game should keep the Bucs' defensive boxes at the seven-man level often.
Speaking of Dallas' air attack, the Bucs' success against the run has helped lead to Tampa Bay allowing 273.6 passing yards per road contest. CeeDee Lamb reemerged in the offense in Week 15 against the Panthers with a 9-116-1 line and Tampa Bay is down star free safety Antoine Winfield again this week. On the other side, the Cowboys have allowed 166.6 rushing yards per home game at 5.2 yards per carry.
Given the factors cited, a bet on the Over and one the Bucs' Bucky Irving exceeding a total he's already eclipsed on seven occasions (despite not being a true lead back until recently), including in four of the last five games, is also very much in play.
- Over 48.5 points (-108 on DraftKings Sportsbook)
- Bucky Irving Over 57.5 rushing yards (-114 on Bet365 Sportsbook)
Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Dallas Cowboys Prediction
Buccaneers 29, Cowboys 23
The expectation of high scoring in this game is well-founded given the defensive issues on both side. Plus, the Buccaneers have a very good chance of keeping Dallas' potent pass rush a bit at bay with their running game. Ultimately, I see the points piling up and Tampa Bay squeaking out a close victory thanks to the more experienced quarterback and more balanced attack.
