NFL Picks: NFL Week 5 Betting Odds and Key Line Movement

NFL Picks: NFL Week 5 Betting Odds and Key Line Movement

This article is part of our NFL Picks series.

NFL Week 5 Betting Odds and Key Line Movement

The goal of this article is to look at the key line moves for the week and what they mean in terms of betting. Key numbers in the NFL to watch for are 3, 7, 6, 14, and 10. When a line crosses through one of these, it is a significant move that warrants attention. After a week where most of the totals were under 48 and most of the lines were in the 0.0 - 3.0 range, we get some variety this week. 

The key here is figuring out which way the line is going to move leading up until kickoff and whether to follow the public and fade them. 

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Latest Odds For NFL Week 5

For more, take a look at NFL Week 5 odds.

Indianapolis Colts @ Denver Broncos (-3.5) O/U 43.5

New York Giants @ Green Bay Packers (-8.0) O/U 41.5

Pittsburgh Steelers @ Buffalo Bills (-14.0) O/U 47.5

Los Angeles Chargers (-3.0) @ Cleveland Browns O/U 49.5

Houston Texans @ Jacksonville Jaguars (-7.5) O/U 44.5

Chicago Bears @ Minnesota Vikings (-7.0) O/U 44.0

Detroit Lions @ New England Patriots (-3.0) O/U 46.5

Seattle Seahawks @ New Orleans Saints (-5.5) O/U 45.5

Miami Dolphins (-4.0) @ New York Jets O/U 44.5

Atlanta Falcons @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-8.0) O/U 48.5

Tennessee Titans (-2.5) @ Washington Commanders O/U 43.5

San Francisco 49ers (-5.0) @ Carolina Panthers O/U 40.0

Philadelphia Eagles (-5.5) @ Arizona Cardinals O/U 49.5

Dallas Cowboys @ Los Angeles Rams (-5.5) O/U 45.5

Cincinnati Bengals @ Baltimore Ravens (-3.0) O/U 48.5

Las Vegas Raiders @ Kansas City Chiefs (-7.5) O/U 51.5    

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NFL Week 5 Line Movement: Pittsburgh Steelers at Buffalo Bills

This line had been at Bills -9.5 until September 27th when it jumped to Bills -13, and then -14 yesterday. This move is two-fold as rookie quarterback Kenny Pickett is starting for the Steelers now which I would argue is better than Mitch Trubisky, but also the Bills have strengthened their position as Super Bowl favorites since the season started. 

But an interesting note on the Bills is that their offense has not been as effective over the last two games and this line may have moved too much. We just saw the Patriots go into Green Bay as +9.5 road dogs and almost pull off the upset. The Bills could be flat for this game and if the Steelers can slow down their offense, the +14 looks very attractive. 

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NFL Week 5 Line Movement: Houston Texans at Jacksonville Jaguars

This line opened Jaguars -3, moved to -3.5, but jumped last Sunday to Jaguars -7 after their huge win against the Chargers. The Texans rank dead last in the NFL in most power ratings so I can justify the line move which has now crossed the key number of 7 and is -7.5. The Jags will be a very popular team in teasers this week.  

NFL Week 5 Line Movement: Detroit Lions at New England Patriots

The line opened Patriots -5, and moved to -6.5 until September 27th when it dropped all the way to -1.5, pick, and back up to -2.5. The quarterback situation with the Patriots is the reason for the huge line move, but they also played very tough against the Packers on the road in Week 4. The Lions defense has allowed the most points in the league and even with backup quarterbacks, the Patriots were able to score against the Packers. The total has jumped from 44.5 to 46.5 on the bad Lions defense.   

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NFL Week 5 Line Movement: Philadelphia Eagles at Arizona Cardinals

The Cardinals pulled off a miracle win at home against the Raiders and beat the Panthers on the road in Week 4. They have not been impressive at all and could easily be 0-4. Meanwhile, the Eagles have been the best team in football through the first 4 weeks of the NFL season. 

The original line opened Cardinals -2 and was still there until September 27, when it completely flipped to Eagles -4, then -6, and back to -5. But I can still see this line getting to -7 by game time. 

You might hear a lot of people saying the Eagles could be flat this week or fall into a "trap" game, but I just do not see it. The Cardinals have been an awful 1st half team and the Eagles have crushed everyone in the first halves which I can see again.

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ABOUT THE AUTHOR
Michael Rathburn
Known as “Rath” in the Daily Fantasy Sports (DFS) community, he has helped run operations for two prominent daily fantasy sports startups. Michael has taken his insider knowledge and expertise in daily fantasy sports to the content side. Rath won the 2016 FSWA "Baseball Article of the Year, Online" award and was a finalist for the FSWA Best Baseball Series in 2011.
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