This article is part of our Survivor series.
Last week was uneventful as the Steelers, Patriots, Chiefs and Texans all pulled out close wins, while the Packers and Titans won easily.
Let's take a look at Week 10:
| Team | Opponent | %Taken* | Vegas ML** | Vegas Odds | Expected Loss |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PACKERS | Jaguars | 55.90% | 825 | 89.19 | 6.04 |
| SAINTS | 49ers | 26.10% | 360 | 78.26 | 5.67 |
| RAIDERS | Broncos | 5.40% | 215 | 68.25 | 1.71 |
| Ravens | PATRIOTS | 3.60% | 297.5 | 74.84 | 0.91 |
| STEELERS | Bengals | 3.20% | 282.5 | 73.86 | 0.84 |
| LIONS | Football Team | 2.10% | 166 | 62.41 | 0.79 |
| Buccaneers | PANTHERS | 1.10% | 202.5 | 66.94 | 0.36 |
| Eagles | GIANTS | 0.60% | 165 | 62.26 | 0.23 |
Home teams in CAPS
* According to "polling" data on Officefootballpools.com
** Average of the two moneylines
Is this a spot to fade the Packers, who are 56 percent owned?
Per Vegas, the implied odds of a Packers wins/Saints loss are 19.4 percent. The odds of a Saints win/Packers loss are 8.5 percent. Divide the former by the latter, and we get 2.29. That's our risk ratio.
In our hypothetical $10 buy-in, 100-person pool, let's assume the Saints win while the Packers lose. That means 56 people are knocked out by the Packers plus another five on other teams for a total of 61, leaving 39 people still alive. $1000/39 = $25.64 in equity.
If the Packers win, but Saints lose, that'll knock out 26 percent plus another five, for a total of 31 or 69 remaining. $1000/69 = $14.49.
The reward ratio of $25.64 to $14.49 is therefore 1.77.
As you can see, pivoting from the Packers to the Saints,
Last week was uneventful as the Steelers, Patriots, Chiefs and Texans all pulled out close wins, while the Packers and Titans won easily.
Let's take a look at Week 10:
| Team | Opponent | %Taken* | Vegas ML** | Vegas Odds | Expected Loss |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PACKERS | Jaguars | 55.90% | 825 | 89.19 | 6.04 |
| SAINTS | 49ers | 26.10% | 360 | 78.26 | 5.67 |
| RAIDERS | Broncos | 5.40% | 215 | 68.25 | 1.71 |
| Ravens | PATRIOTS | 3.60% | 297.5 | 74.84 | 0.91 |
| STEELERS | Bengals | 3.20% | 282.5 | 73.86 | 0.84 |
| LIONS | Football Team | 2.10% | 166 | 62.41 | 0.79 |
| Buccaneers | PANTHERS | 1.10% | 202.5 | 66.94 | 0.36 |
| Eagles | GIANTS | 0.60% | 165 | 62.26 | 0.23 |
Home teams in CAPS
* According to "polling" data on Officefootballpools.com
** Average of the two moneylines
Is this a spot to fade the Packers, who are 56 percent owned?
Per Vegas, the implied odds of a Packers wins/Saints loss are 19.4 percent. The odds of a Saints win/Packers loss are 8.5 percent. Divide the former by the latter, and we get 2.29. That's our risk ratio.
In our hypothetical $10 buy-in, 100-person pool, let's assume the Saints win while the Packers lose. That means 56 people are knocked out by the Packers plus another five on other teams for a total of 61, leaving 39 people still alive. $1000/39 = $25.64 in equity.
If the Packers win, but Saints lose, that'll knock out 26 percent plus another five, for a total of 31 or 69 remaining. $1000/69 = $14.49.
The reward ratio of $25.64 to $14.49 is therefore 1.77.
As you can see, pivoting from the Packers to the Saints, assuming the polling data is accurate (which it might not be), and you buy into the Vegas-implied win probabilities, would be a negative EV move in this case.
My Picks
1. Green Bay Packers
They're 56 percent owned, but there just isn't a great pivot as the Saints are 26 percent owned and materially less likely to win. The calculus changes if you suspect more than 56 percent of your pool will take Green Bay, or if you disagree with Vegas' probabilities, but otherwise I'm probably rolling with the chalk. I give the Packers an 89 percent chance to win this game.
2. New Orleans Saints
The Saints crushed the Bucs last week, and now they get a home game against the injured, but unpredictably dangerous 49ers. One thing the Saints have going is their run defense which should neutralize San Francisco's strength. I give the Saints an 80 percent chance to win this game.
3. Pittsburgh Steelers
I think this is dangerous, and make sure Ben Roethlisberger (COVID/knee) is playing before using them. Joe Burrow has been great, and the Steelers have not looked especially dominant the last couple weeks. I give the Steelers a 70 percent chance to win this game, but it's 50 at best if Roethlisberger is out.
4. Baltimore Ravens
The Ravens are a good team, but they're missing Pro Bowl left tackle Ronnie Stanley, Lamar Jackson has been erratic, and going into New England is never easy. I give the Ravens a 68 percent chance to win this game.
Notable Omissions:
Las Vegas Raiders -- They've been solid this year, but Denver is a live dog, and I don't trust the Raiders' defense.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers -- They've been exposed the last two weeks, and the Panthers have gone toe to toe with the Chiefs and Saints of late.
Philadelphia Eagles -- The Giants had them down 21-10 with four minutes left in Philadelphia a couple weeks ago.
Detroit Lions -- They cannot be trusted against anyone, let alone a team with a solid defense.
