This article is part of our Survivor series.
Last week the Titans and Packers lost, taking out about 21 percent of your pools. Had the Bucs not held on late, it would have been a much bigger bloodbath though.
Let's take a look at this week's game:
| Team | Opponent | %Taken* | Vegas ML** | Vegas Odds | Expected Loss |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Steelers | COWBOYS | 37.60% | 750 | 88.24 | 4.42 |
| Patriots | JETS | 18.10% | 300 | 75.00 | 4.53 |
| CHIEFS | Panthers | 13.70% | 475 | 82.61 | 2.38 |
| Texans | JAGUARS | 12.40% | 285 | 74.03 | 3.22 |
| Packers | 49ERS | 6.00% | 230 | 69.70 | 1.82 |
| TITANS | Bears | 4.10% | 225 | 69.23 | 1.26 |
| CARDINALS | Dolphins | 3.20% | 187.5 | 65.22 | 1.11 |
| FALCONS | Broncos | 1.60% | 187.5 | 65.22 | 0.56 |
| VIKINGS | Liokns | 1.40% | 185 | 64.91 | 0.49 |
Home teams in CAPS
* According to "polling" data on Officefootballpools.com
** Average of the two moneylines
The Steelers are the biggest favorites, and their ownership levels are high, but not unduly so. After that, the Pats (with fade-the-Jets players) are at 18 percent and the Chiefs at nearly 14 against the Panthers.
My Picks:
1. Pittsburgh Steelers
It's close between the Steelers and Chiefs, due to the Steelers higher ownership, but I took Pittsburgh against an as-yet-to-be-determined Cowboys QB. The Steelers are also on the road and coming off a physical game against the Ravens, but the Cowboys are almost Jets-esque at this point, and the Steelers defense might be the best in the league. I give the Steelers an 88 percent chance to win this game.
2. Kansas City Chiefs
They're at home, and they got the deep passing game going again last week. But
Last week the Titans and Packers lost, taking out about 21 percent of your pools. Had the Bucs not held on late, it would have been a much bigger bloodbath though.
Let's take a look at this week's game:
| Team | Opponent | %Taken* | Vegas ML** | Vegas Odds | Expected Loss |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Steelers | COWBOYS | 37.60% | 750 | 88.24 | 4.42 |
| Patriots | JETS | 18.10% | 300 | 75.00 | 4.53 |
| CHIEFS | Panthers | 13.70% | 475 | 82.61 | 2.38 |
| Texans | JAGUARS | 12.40% | 285 | 74.03 | 3.22 |
| Packers | 49ERS | 6.00% | 230 | 69.70 | 1.82 |
| TITANS | Bears | 4.10% | 225 | 69.23 | 1.26 |
| CARDINALS | Dolphins | 3.20% | 187.5 | 65.22 | 1.11 |
| FALCONS | Broncos | 1.60% | 187.5 | 65.22 | 0.56 |
| VIKINGS | Liokns | 1.40% | 185 | 64.91 | 0.49 |
Home teams in CAPS
* According to "polling" data on Officefootballpools.com
** Average of the two moneylines
The Steelers are the biggest favorites, and their ownership levels are high, but not unduly so. After that, the Pats (with fade-the-Jets players) are at 18 percent and the Chiefs at nearly 14 against the Panthers.
My Picks:
1. Pittsburgh Steelers
It's close between the Steelers and Chiefs, due to the Steelers higher ownership, but I took Pittsburgh against an as-yet-to-be-determined Cowboys QB. The Steelers are also on the road and coming off a physical game against the Ravens, but the Cowboys are almost Jets-esque at this point, and the Steelers defense might be the best in the league. I give the Steelers an 88 percent chance to win this game.
2. Kansas City Chiefs
They're at home, and they got the deep passing game going again last week. But the Panthers, while not good, should move the ball. I give the Chiefs an 82 percent chance to win this game.
3. New England Patriots
The Pats have looked bad the past few weeks, but they were in game-tying field goal range in Buffalo last week and should easily handle an all-time bad Jets squad. I give the Patriots an 80 percent chance to win this game.
4. Tennessee Titans
The Titans lost in Cincinnati last week, and Joe Burrow showed their defense is exploitable by a competent QB. Unfortunately for the Bears, that's what they're lacking, and the Titans offense should move the ball at home against Chicago. I give the Titans a 73 percent chance to win this game.
5. Houston Texans
The Texans are an average team, despite their record, and they draw one of the league's worst teams with its rookie quarterback making his first start. That said, the Texans on the road are less than ideal. I give the Texans a 73 percent chance to win this game.
6. Green Bay Packers
The Packers got beat at home by the Vikings, and now they travel on a short week. But the 49ers might be literally the most injured team in NFL history, missing their top QB, WR, RB, TE, center, two defensive linemen and cornerback, and I'm sure I'm leaving a few more out. I give the Packers a 67 percent chance to win this game.
Notable Omissions:
Arizona Cardinals -- The Dolphins show up every week, and the Cardinals are erratic.
Atlanta Falcons -- The Broncos are roughly at their level and better defensively.
Minnesota Vikings -- They can't be trusted after getting blown out by Atlanta at home a few weeks ago.
