This article is part of our Survivor series.
Let's take a look at this week's slate:
| Team | Opponent | %Taken* | Vegas ML** | Vegas Odds | Expected Loss |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CHARGERS | Browns | 63.50% | 825 | 89.19% | 6.86 |
| Jaguars | Colts | 11.70% | 425 | 80.95% | 2.23 |
| RAIDERS | Giants | 8.90% | 300 | 75.00% | 2.23 |
| TITANS | Texans | 4.90% | 290 | 74.36% | 1.26 |
| Rams | CARDINALS | 3.30% | 280 | 73.68% | 0.87 |
| Patriots | BILLS | 2.60% | 400 | 80.00% | 0.52 |
| BEARS | 49ers | 1.80% | 175 | 63.64% | 0.65 |
| PACKERS | Buccaneers | 0.60% | 110 | 52.38% | 0.29 |
| Chiefs | JETS | 0.60% | 165 | 62.26% | 0.23 |
| Steelers | BENGALS | 0.40% | 230 | 69.70% | 0.12 |
| RAVENS | Lions | 0.20% | 140 | 58.33% | 0.08 |
| Broncos | DOLPHINS | 0.20% | 110 | 52.38% | 0.10 |
| SAINTS | Panthers | 0.20% | 190 | 65.52% | 0.07 |
| Eagles | SEAHAWKS | 0.20% | 220 | 68.75% | 0.06 |
| FALCONS | Vikings | 0.20% | 140 | 58.33% | 0.08 |
* According to "polling" data on Officefootballpools.com
** Average of the two moneylines
This is the rare week where there's a massively used top choice, and these numbers probably undersell the extent to which people in your original pools are on the Chargers as they include second-chance and re-buy pools where people have more choices left. For those who began in Week 1, I'd bet the Chargers are upwards of 80 percent, mostly because they're the rare double-digit favorites that are likely still available in Week 13.
Anyone who used the Chargers in Weeks 1-4 is out, as they started off 0-4, and no one used them for several weeks after that. Last week, they were a
Let's take a look at this week's slate:
| Team | Opponent | %Taken* | Vegas ML** | Vegas Odds | Expected Loss |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CHARGERS | Browns | 63.50% | 825 | 89.19% | 6.86 |
| Jaguars | Colts | 11.70% | 425 | 80.95% | 2.23 |
| RAIDERS | Giants | 8.90% | 300 | 75.00% | 2.23 |
| TITANS | Texans | 4.90% | 290 | 74.36% | 1.26 |
| Rams | CARDINALS | 3.30% | 280 | 73.68% | 0.87 |
| Patriots | BILLS | 2.60% | 400 | 80.00% | 0.52 |
| BEARS | 49ers | 1.80% | 175 | 63.64% | 0.65 |
| PACKERS | Buccaneers | 0.60% | 110 | 52.38% | 0.29 |
| Chiefs | JETS | 0.60% | 165 | 62.26% | 0.23 |
| Steelers | BENGALS | 0.40% | 230 | 69.70% | 0.12 |
| RAVENS | Lions | 0.20% | 140 | 58.33% | 0.08 |
| Broncos | DOLPHINS | 0.20% | 110 | 52.38% | 0.10 |
| SAINTS | Panthers | 0.20% | 190 | 65.52% | 0.07 |
| Eagles | SEAHAWKS | 0.20% | 220 | 68.75% | 0.06 |
| FALCONS | Vikings | 0.20% | 140 | 58.33% | 0.08 |
* According to "polling" data on Officefootballpools.com
** Average of the two moneylines
This is the rare week where there's a massively used top choice, and these numbers probably undersell the extent to which people in your original pools are on the Chargers as they include second-chance and re-buy pools where people have more choices left. For those who began in Week 1, I'd bet the Chargers are upwards of 80 percent, mostly because they're the rare double-digit favorites that are likely still available in Week 13.
Anyone who used the Chargers in Weeks 1-4 is out, as they started off 0-4, and no one used them for several weeks after that. Last week, they were a pick 'em at Dallas, the week before a mild favorite over the Bills. There simply wasn't a logical week to take them until now. But because every else is on them, I'm fading them this week too.
My Picks
1. New England Patriots
You've probably used them by now, but if you didn't, they're a good choice given their miniscule ownership and high level of play. Even their defense is playing well of late. I give the Patriots an 82 percent chance to win this game.
2. Jacksonville Jaguars
The Colts are bad, and the Jaguars are playing at home. While Blake Bortles could give the game away, the Colts are an unlikely defense to take advantage of him. I give the Jaguars an 82 percent chance to win this game.
3. Los Angeles Chargers
I have them third based on a 60-70 percent ownership number, but if you have reason to suspect your pool is at 80 or higher, you could fade them further. The Chargers are good on both sides of the ball, and they should handle the Browns easily, but Los Angeles has little home field advantage and has been known to choke in the worst possible ways. Plus Josh Gordon and Corey Coleman are back for Cleveland. I give the Chargers an 88 percent chance to win this game.
4. Los Angeles Rams
The Rams should handle the Cardinals, but it's a road game, and Blaine Gabbert has played pretty well since taking over. I give the Rams a 74 percent chance to win this game.
5. Tennessee Titans
I don't trust the Titans, but they're home and facing a Tom Savage-quarterbacked Texans team that's not good against the pass. I give the Titans a 73 percent chance to win this game.
6. Oakland Raiders
The Raiders draw Geno Smith and the Giants, but Oakland is likely missing its top two receivers, and their defense isn't good. Still, at home they should be able to handle a depleted Giants squad. I give them a 70 percent chance to win this game.
Notable Omissions:
Philadelphia Eagles - I wouldn't mess with a road game at Seattle.
Pittsburgh Steelers - The Bengals were able to run the ball last week, and the Steelers defense looked beatable against the Packers.
Kansas City Chiefs - I don't trust them, especially on the road.
New Orleans Saints - I'd feel better if I knew Marshon Lattimore were playing, but even so this is a dangerous opponent.
Chicago Bears - Their offense isn't good, and Jimmy Garoppolo is a wild card.
