I counseled fading the Lions, and I'll stand by that as they were life and death with the Bears the entire way, and the payoff would have been big had Detroit not pulled it out. It can be hard to wrap one's mind around the concept of making a good bet that's likely to be wrong, but getting 20:1 on a 10:1 long shot is usually worth the risk.
Let's take a look at this week's slate:
| Team | Opponent | % Taken | Vegas ML** | Vegas Odds | Expected Loss |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FALCONS | 49ers | 52.10% | 750 | 88.24% | 6.13 |
| BILLS | Browns | 15.70% | 487.5 | 82.98% | 2.67 |
| SEAHAWKS | Rams | 14.80% | 1250 | 92.59% | 1.10 |
| TEXANS | Jaguars | 7.00% | 245 | 71.01% | 2.03 |
| Packers | BEARS | 1.90% | 267.5 | 72.79% | 0.52 |
| COWBOYS | Buccaneers | 1.90% | 275 | 73.33% | 0.51 |
| RAVENS | Eagles | 1.60% | 245 | 71.01% | 0.46 |
| CHIEFS | Titans | 1.40% | 230 | 69.70% | 0.42 |
| REDSKINS | Panthers | 0.80% | 240 | 70.59% | 0.24 |
| Raiders | CHARGERS | 0.70% | 135 | 57.45% | 0.30 |
| VIKINGS | COLTS | 0.50% | 187.5 | 65.22% | 0.17 |
| GIANTS | Lions | 0.50% | 197.5 | 66.39% | 0.17 |
* According to "polling" data on Officefootballpools.com
** Average of the two moneylines
There are some huge favorites here, and two of them are low enough owned to be obvious.
My Picks
1. Seattle Seahawks
The Rams usually play the Seahawks tough, but this is the Jared Goff version with an interim coach traveling on a short week. I
I counseled fading the Lions, and I'll stand by that as they were life and death with the Bears the entire way, and the payoff would have been big had Detroit not pulled it out. It can be hard to wrap one's mind around the concept of making a good bet that's likely to be wrong, but getting 20:1 on a 10:1 long shot is usually worth the risk.
Let's take a look at this week's slate:
| Team | Opponent | % Taken | Vegas ML** | Vegas Odds | Expected Loss |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FALCONS | 49ers | 52.10% | 750 | 88.24% | 6.13 |
| BILLS | Browns | 15.70% | 487.5 | 82.98% | 2.67 |
| SEAHAWKS | Rams | 14.80% | 1250 | 92.59% | 1.10 |
| TEXANS | Jaguars | 7.00% | 245 | 71.01% | 2.03 |
| Packers | BEARS | 1.90% | 267.5 | 72.79% | 0.52 |
| COWBOYS | Buccaneers | 1.90% | 275 | 73.33% | 0.51 |
| RAVENS | Eagles | 1.60% | 245 | 71.01% | 0.46 |
| CHIEFS | Titans | 1.40% | 230 | 69.70% | 0.42 |
| REDSKINS | Panthers | 0.80% | 240 | 70.59% | 0.24 |
| Raiders | CHARGERS | 0.70% | 135 | 57.45% | 0.30 |
| VIKINGS | COLTS | 0.50% | 187.5 | 65.22% | 0.17 |
| GIANTS | Lions | 0.50% | 197.5 | 66.39% | 0.17 |
* According to "polling" data on Officefootballpools.com
** Average of the two moneylines
There are some huge favorites here, and two of them are low enough owned to be obvious.
My Picks
1. Seattle Seahawks
The Rams usually play the Seahawks tough, but this is the Jared Goff version with an interim coach traveling on a short week. I give the Seahawks a 93 percent chance to win this game.
2. Buffalo Bills
The Bills got worked by the Steelers last week, but Robert Griffin looks like a backup college quarterback, and LeSean McCoy should have his way against a soft run defense. I give the Bills an 84 percent chance to win this game.
3. Atlanta Falcons
The Falcons are 52 percent owned, so if they lose the payoff would be big, but they're also huge favorites, so the likelihood that happens is low. I suppose Carlos Hyde and Colin Kaepernick could do work against this soft defense, and Matt Ryan could be limited with Julio Jones potentially out, but even so, the Falcons should run at will, and Ryan has gotten it done without Jones before. I give the Falcons an 87 percent chance to win this game.
4. Baltimore Ravens
The Ravens are much tougher at home, and the Eagles much worse on the road. I like Baltimore's defense to stifle Carson Wentz, and Joe Flacco should be able to attack Philly's weak secondary. I give the Ravens a 74 percent chance to win this game.
5. Washington Redskins
On paper this should be a close game, but Kirk Cousins is better at home, Carolina's back seven is weak, and the Panthers seem checked out to me. I give the Redskins a 73 percent chance to win this game.
6. Green Bay Packers
The Packers are one of the hottest teams in the league right now, and I think they should be fine in cold weather. The only concern is it might be so cold as to mitigate the talent difference between the teams. I give the Packers a 71 percent chance to win this game.
7. Kansas City Chiefs
The Chiefs are a bit smoke and mirrors, but with the 10-day layoff, Andy Reid has extra time to gameplan, and Arrowhead is a tough place to play. I give the Chiefs a 70 percent chance to win this game.
Notable Omissions:
New York Giants - They're probably the better team, but Ben McAdoo will coach them down to Detroit's level, and in a 50/50 game, give me Matthew Stafford over Eli Manning this year.
Dallas Cowboys - The Cowboys should bounce back, but Tampa Bay's defense has been very solid of late, and Jameis Winston should be able to move the ball against Dallas' defense.
Houston Texans - Whenever Brock Osweiler's involved you should be concerned.
