Let's take a look at Week 6:
| Team | Opponent | %Taken* | Vegas ML** | Vegas Odds | Expected Loss |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BILLS | 49ers | 28.20% | 355 | 78.02% | 6.20 |
| Steelers | DOLPHINS | 23.70% | 320 | 76.19% | 5.64 |
| TITANS | Browns | 21.60% | 285 | 74.03% | 5.61 |
| PATRIOTS | Bengals | 13.60% | 385 | 79.38% | 2.80 |
| CARDINALS | Jets | 6.90% | 345 | 77.53% | 1.55 |
| Broncos | CHARGERS | 1.20% | 165 | 62.26% | 0.45 |
| PACKERS | Cowboys | 1.00% | 195 | 66.10% | 0.34 |
| SEAHAWKS | Falcons | 0.90% | 265 | 72.60% | 0.25 |
| GIANTS | Ravens | 0.60% | 150 | 60.00% | 0.24 |
| LIONS | Rams | 0.50% | 170 | 62.96% | 0.19 |
* According to "polling" data on Officefootballpools.com
** Average of the two moneylines
Based on the Vegas lines and "polling" data, the top choice is either the Patriots (most likely to win, 13.6% owned) or the Cardinals (third most likely, 6.9% owned.) I could go through the math, but it would be splitting hairs, i.e., the risk and reward ratios will be very close to equal. Moreover, the Steelers, Bills (and to a lesser extent, the Titans and Seahawks) are all close as there's no team with even 30 percent ownership, and all are nearly as likely to win as the Patriots. In sum, this is a pick the team you're most on situation, though be mindful the Bills, Steelers and Titans (with ownership in the 20s) offer slightly less of a
Let's take a look at Week 6:
| Team | Opponent | %Taken* | Vegas ML** | Vegas Odds | Expected Loss |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BILLS | 49ers | 28.20% | 355 | 78.02% | 6.20 |
| Steelers | DOLPHINS | 23.70% | 320 | 76.19% | 5.64 |
| TITANS | Browns | 21.60% | 285 | 74.03% | 5.61 |
| PATRIOTS | Bengals | 13.60% | 385 | 79.38% | 2.80 |
| CARDINALS | Jets | 6.90% | 345 | 77.53% | 1.55 |
| Broncos | CHARGERS | 1.20% | 165 | 62.26% | 0.45 |
| PACKERS | Cowboys | 1.00% | 195 | 66.10% | 0.34 |
| SEAHAWKS | Falcons | 0.90% | 265 | 72.60% | 0.25 |
| GIANTS | Ravens | 0.60% | 150 | 60.00% | 0.24 |
| LIONS | Rams | 0.50% | 170 | 62.96% | 0.19 |
* According to "polling" data on Officefootballpools.com
** Average of the two moneylines
Based on the Vegas lines and "polling" data, the top choice is either the Patriots (most likely to win, 13.6% owned) or the Cardinals (third most likely, 6.9% owned.) I could go through the math, but it would be splitting hairs, i.e., the risk and reward ratios will be very close to equal. Moreover, the Steelers, Bills (and to a lesser extent, the Titans and Seahawks) are all close as there's no team with even 30 percent ownership, and all are nearly as likely to win as the Patriots. In sum, this is a pick the team you're most on situation, though be mindful the Bills, Steelers and Titans (with ownership in the 20s) offer slightly less of a payout.
My Picks
1. New England Patriots
Some will save them for a better matchup, but they're low owned and the biggest favorite on the board. And when they do have a better matchup they might be highly owned. I give them a 79 percent chance to win this game.
2. Seattle Seahawks
The Falcons are a dangerous team, but Russell Wilson isn't Paxton Lynch. Moreover, the game plan that worked against Denver is on tape now, and it probably won't work again against the Seahawks. I give Seattle a 75 percent chance to win this game.
3. Buffalo Bills
They're 28 percent owned, so you're giving up some equity gains by using them, but they're the second biggest favorite on the board, and their ownership level isn't all that needle-moving. I give them an 80 percent chance to win this game.
4. Arizona Cardinals
The Cardinals should be able to handle the Jets, who don't defend the pass, at home, but they've struggled to find consistency this year. Still, at 6.9 percent ownership, there's some equity upside should the Bills, Steelers or Titans lose. I give them a 75 percent chance to win this game.
Notable Omissions
Tennessee Titans - They have an easy matchup at home, but Josh McCown could be back, and I don't trust them. Plus they're more than 20 percent owned.
Pittsburgh Steelers The Steelers are on the road where they don't play nearly as well, and they're the second most owned team.
