As the top-tier running backs come off the board in 2025 fantasy drafts, drafters are faced with a critical decision with the tiers that follow. We broke down the second tier in July, but with the final waves of drafts taking place and big decisions looming, we wanted to take another look at player vs. player battles.
Each has top-5 upside, but each has distinct risk that could determine your season. Making the right call here is huge, and one to practice for on the mock draft simulator that is part of the RotoWire draft kit.
So, who should you draft: Christian McCaffrey or Derrick Henry? Both will likely be selected in the RB4-RB6 range, based on current ADP. Each has top-5 upside, but each also has distinct risk that could determine your season.
Christian McCaffrey, San Francisco 49ers (RB5)
Christian McCaffrey's 2024 was derailed by injury. Coming off an Achilles injury, McCaffrey did not make his season debut until Week 10. He struggled thereafter before suffering a knee injury Week 13, and was shut down for the season.
He ranked in the 30th percentile in yards after contact, but that can be reasonably chalked up to the Achilles injury, and despite being in his eighth season, McCaffrey has averaged just 168 carries per year, which perhaps will preserve him more than expected at age 29.
The 49ers have made it clear that McCaffrey will remain the focal point of the offense this season. Offensive coordinator
As the top-tier running backs come off the board in 2025 fantasy drafts, drafters are faced with a critical decision with the tiers that follow. We broke down the second tier in July, but with the final waves of drafts taking place and big decisions looming, we wanted to take another look at player vs. player battles.
Each has top-5 upside, but each has distinct risk that could determine your season. Making the right call here is huge, and one to practice for on the mock draft simulator that is part of the RotoWire draft kit.
So, who should you draft: Christian McCaffrey or Derrick Henry? Both will likely be selected in the RB4-RB6 range, based on current ADP. Each has top-5 upside, but each also has distinct risk that could determine your season.
Christian McCaffrey, San Francisco 49ers (RB5)
Christian McCaffrey's 2024 was derailed by injury. Coming off an Achilles injury, McCaffrey did not make his season debut until Week 10. He struggled thereafter before suffering a knee injury Week 13, and was shut down for the season.
He ranked in the 30th percentile in yards after contact, but that can be reasonably chalked up to the Achilles injury, and despite being in his eighth season, McCaffrey has averaged just 168 carries per year, which perhaps will preserve him more than expected at age 29.
The 49ers have made it clear that McCaffrey will remain the focal point of the offense this season. Offensive coordinator Klay Kubiak said the team plans to "get him the ball as much as we can."
When healthy, McCaffrey is unrivaled. He finished as the PPR RB1 or RB2 in each of his last four healthy seasons. No running back has matched that level of dominance.
Still, three injury-plagued years in the last five seasons make him a high-risk, high-reward pick. His top-5 ADP demands perfection, and that's a tall order given the recent durability record.
The bottom line: McCaffrey has unmatched upside, but the injury risk is undeniable. If you're drafting him, it's a bet on health. For risk-tolerant managers, he's worth the gamble.
Derrick Henry, Baltimore Ravens (RB4)
Derrick Henry showed no signs of slowing in 2024, rushing for 1,921 yards and 16 touchdowns on 325 carries. It was the second-best season of his career. He averaged a career-high 5.9 yards per carry, posted an 85th percentile broken tackle rate and remained an ironman with 15 or more games in eight of nine seasons.
Baltimore unlocked even more value late in the year by adding shotgun and fullback wrinkles to its ground game. In his final five games, including the playoffs, Henry averaged 143 rushing yards and 1.2 touchdowns.
He won't give you much in the passing game. He caught just 19 passes last year. But he's a rare RB with a stable role and elite floor. Despite being 31, there's been no sign of regression.
The bottom line: Henry combines elite durability with week-winning upside. If you want safety and production, Henry is a good option.
Final Thoughts on Fantasy Football ADP RB Values
Both of these running backs has a clear case at ADP but offer different paths to value. McCaffrey has the best track record and the highest ceiling, but you're betting against recent history with his health. Henry continues to defy age and injury risk, delivering reliable RB1 numbers and a safe weekly floor.
If you're seeking stability with league-winning potential, Henry is the preferred choice in this range. If you want the home-run swing, McCaffrey still has the best ceiling in fantasy football.
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