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Staff Picks: Everyone But Liss on the Pack

Chris Liss

Chris Liss is RotoWire's Managing Editor and Host of RotoWIre Fantasy Sports Today on Sirius XM radio.

Congrats to DDD who locked up the playoff portion of the Staff Picks with a 2-0 mark last week, putting him at 7-3. Because Stopa (6-4) also picked the Packers, he can't catch up. I'm the only one taking the Steelers this week, incidentally, though DDD (if you read his comments) is probably rooting for Packers win/Steelers cover.

Enjoy the game.

Erickson Pianowski Liss Stopa Del Don
Steelers +2.5 vs. Packers Packers Packers Steelers Packers Packers
Last Week's Record 0-2 1-1 1-1 2-0 2-0
Playoff Record 5-5 4-6 5-5 6-4 7-3
Playoff Best Bet Record 1-2 1-2 2-1 3-0 2-1
2010 Record 129-122-5 134-117-5 126-125-5 136-115-5 134-117-5
Best Bet Record 7-9-1 9-7-1 9-8 10-6-1 11-5-1
Consensus Pick Record 32-21-1
2009 Playoff Record 5-6 4-7 1-10 6-5 5-6
2008 Playoff Record 6-5 5-6 5-6 8-3 4-7
2007 Playoff Record 8-3 3-8 6-5 N/A 2-9
2006 Playoff Record 7-4 N/A 4-7 N/A N/A
2005 Playoff Record 5-6 N/A 3-8 N/A N/A
2004 Playoff Record 6-5 N/A 4-7 N/A N/A
2003 Playoff Record 6-5 N/A 4-7 N/A N/A
2002 Playoff Record 6-5 7-4 5-6 N/A N/A
2001 Playoff Record 6-4-1 7-3-1 4-6-1 N/A N/A
2000 Playoff Record 6-5 7-4 6-5 N/A N/A
2009 Record 123-130-3 132-121-3 131-122-3 130-123-3 126-127-3
2008 Record 132-114-10 128-118-10 124-122-10 125-121-10 130-116-10
2007 Record 127-120 118-129 127-120 N/A 130-117
2006 Record 118-129 N/A 139-108 N/A N/A
2005 Record 121-126 N/A 127-120 N/A N/A
2004 Record 124-124 N/A 130-118 N/A N/A
2003 Record 121-126 118-129 124-123 N/A N/A
2002 Record 113-136 123-126 141-108 N/A N/A
2001 Record 124-113 117-120 118-119 N/A N/A
2000 Record 123-117 134-106 141-99 N/A N/A

Consensus Picks

This week we have no consenus picks. We finished the year 32-21-1. We finished 2009 at 19-23-1 on consensus picks, and were 24-19-2 on them in 2008.


EricksonPittsburgh's OL woes finally catch up to them.
PianowskiPackers 27, Steelers 23. Aaron Rodgers MVP. Now go fix the friggin' labor mess.
LissThe Packers will get out to a lead but won't be able to put the Steelers away as McCarthy gets conservative, and Big Ben brings them back. Steelers outright 24 - 21.
StopaI could give explain ad nauseum why the Packers are better than the Steelers. I could point to the Steelers' offensive line woes, Polamalu's injury, or the Packers' studs at every level of the defense. But I've been on the Packers like white on rice, so you've heard it all before. For me, the Super Bowl is about (1) karma, and (2) Aaron Rodgers. I refuse to believe Roethlisberger can go from being suspended for what was likely a rape to 3-0 in Super Bowls in the same season. We're talking Joe Montana territory. Scripts don't get written that way; they just don't. This Super Bowl is all about Aaron Rodgers. He sat patiently for his chance when Favre was still in Green Bay. He carried his team this year through injuries. Sunday, he'll show why he's the NFL's best player, entering the conversation for the best QB of our generation. He'll win the MVP, and I think the game will be more one-sided than people think. The only way I'm wrong is if Polamalu is healthier than we realize, McCarthy pukes on himself, and Ben rescues them at the end. Could happen, but I don't see it. Packers 30-17.
Del DonEntering the Divisional Round this year, I was 12-25 ATS in the postseason dating back to when I started picking every game in 2007. I've since gone 6-0. I'm not exactly sure what this means, but one thing I'm positive of - I have very little feel for the Super Bowl. Full disclosure - I have a 30-1 futures bet (placed in Week 16 for $50) on Green Bay, so I'll be a huge Packers fan Sunday. As far as hedging goes, I was somehow able to roll the points up to 3 in Reno this week, and it only cost me the normal 10% juice (this still seems incredibly insane, and the only explanation I can come up with is the book is basically begging people to put money on Pittsburgh at this point). Let's get to some actual game analysis - Pittsburgh seems to have the advantage on defense, running the ball, experience and coaching, and even when you look at respective passing attacks - Big Ben's 8.2 YPA is right there with Rodgers' 8.3 mark. But the Steelers' dominant run defense may actually help Green Bay if it forces the team to rely heavily on its passing game, as Rodgers will be the best player on the field. Maurkice Pouncey's absence may be a bit overblown (he received a -4.2 grade by Pro Football Focus this year), but there's no doubt his replacement is a downgrade at a pretty important position. This is the lowest point spread in a Super Bowl in nearly 20 years, and it really could go either way, but the fact it's being played on turf and in a dome no doubt helps Green Bay. In a coin flip, I'll side with the Pack, if only because I'm going to be rooting heavily for them, either way Sunday.

The players:

Jeff Erickson: RotoWire Senior editor, 2001, 2008 Staff Picks Champ. Writes the Value Meter. Covers and roots for the Bengals.

Scott Pianowski: Fantasy expert for Yahoo! Sports, and also contributes to 2009 Staff Picks Champ. Roots for the Patriots.

Chris Liss: RotoWire Managing Editor, 2000, 2002, 2006 Staff Picks Champ, 2003, 2004 co-champ. Writes Beating the Book and Surviving the Week in addition to Staff Picks. Covers and roots for the Giants.

Mark Stopa: Staff Writer, Writes Working the Wire. 2010 Staff Picks Champ. Roots for the Bills.

Dalton Del Don: RotoWire Senior Staff Writer. 2007 Staff Picks Champ. Writes the Game Capsules and the Barometer. Covers the Eagles and roots for the 49ers.