Matchup Edge: No Escape from LA?

Cleveland vs. Jets

Open: 39.5 O/U, CLE -1.5
Press time: 40 O/U, PK

The Jets secondary is young at safety, but I'm not sure DeShone Kizer is in a state to compete against any particular NFL defense. I think the Jets can stop him a lot of ways; no matter whether it's sitting back with varied coverages and daring him to throw, nor if they decide to blitz a lot.

If the Jets blitz a lot, then screens and draws to running back and apparent top Cleveland receiver Duke Johnson might be the best way to make them pay for it. Actually, Johnson is Cleveland's best hope no matter how the Jets conduct themselves. With Kenny Britt doubtful, Ricardo Louis and Rashard Higgins are the top receivers for Cleveland. The former has more athletic talent, while the latter's skill set is probably better. It's hard to be optimistic about either if Kizer doesn't improve.

David Njoku is a dangerous red-zone threat if the Browns ever get there. I think it might take turnovers from Josh McCown for that to happen, but I'm not especially optimistic of that given how bad the Cleveland pass defense has been.

Bilal Powell and Elijah McGuire both looked good last week, but the former is the only one I'd want to consider in most formats. That's mostly for his pass-catching potential and the potential for the Jets to see short fields – it's not easy to imagine Powell getting much yardage on the ground against a defense allowing just 3.1 yards per carry to opposing running backs.

While the debut of instant beast Myles Garrett adds some level of concern, I still think this might be a good enough matchup to consider Josh McCown as a streamer. The Cleveland run defense is good and its pass defense is bad. The opportunity that was already there should have a compound effect from the removal of the running option. Opposing quarterbacks were allowed 8.3 YPA to this point, at a completion percentage of 73.4 while allowing nine touchdowns to two interceptions. As a result, I think at least one of Robby Anderson, Jermaine Kearse, or Austin Seferian-Jenkins should have a nice game. Maybe two.

Pittsburgh vs. Jacksonville

Open: 44.5 O/U, PIT -9
Press time: 42.5 O/U, PIT -7.5

The Jacksonville run defense was terrible last week. Bilal Powell and Elijah McGuire both saw vast openings on most of their productive plays, and it's hard to imagine Le'Veon Bell disappointing in this setting.

The corners for Jacksonville are intimidating otherwise, but I thought Ben Roethlisberger looked better last week. At home and with the dominant duo of Antonio Brown and Martavis Bryant matching the skill of the Jaguars outside corners, I find the matchup less than intimidating for Roethlisberger. No one can cover Brown, and few can cover Bryant. Roethlisberger is the only conditional part of the equation for me. I also think Jesse James makes sense as a streamer if the Jags corners do manage to contain Brown and Bryant.

Blake Bortles' performances fluctuate from week to week, but after the incredible inaccuracy he showed last week, I don't know how you consider any part of the Jacksonville passing game outside of very deep settings.

Leonard Fournette, by contrast, matches up just fine here, I think. Jordan Howard annihilated this defense, and Fournette is better.

Cincinnati vs. Buffalo

Open: 38.5 O/U, CIN -2.5
Press time: 39.5 O/U, CIN -3

If the Cincinnati offensive line is as bad as it appears to be, the Bengals are walking into a buzzsaw here. The Buffalo front four is talented, and its effectiveness is elevated by the aggressive, stunt-heavy scheme the Bills run. A.J. Green can't be covered by this secondary, so I can see him producing even if no one else does for Cincinnati, but I'd stay away from Dalton and Tyler Kroft, as the latter might need to block more often to hold off Jerry Hughes and Shaq Lawson.

Joe Mixon's talent remains standout to me, but the buzzsaw probably catches him in this one, too. He's been hit at the line of scrimmage often enough as it is, and the conditions seem worse than most for this context. It'll take a big play or two for him to produce this week, though he is capable of such things.

LeSean McCoy is due for a big game, and I like his chances against a Cincinnati team that might suffer for field positioning and time of possession. Even Mike Tolbert, who has reliably vultured red-zone touches, has some flex consideration for me this week. It would probably take two touchdowns for him to be worth much in DFS, though.

Charles Clay is probably the only Buffalo pass catcher you're considering. Zay Jones has been overwhelmed so far, and I'll never be able to take Andre Holmes too seriously. I'll be keeping an eye on Kaelin Clay to see if he can earn some more targets at their expense, but he's still a ways off for me.

Tyrod Taylor's running ability usually leaves him in play, and this game is no exception. We recall how well Cincinnati defended Deshaun Watson's running, and Taylor is on another level from where Watson is. It's easy enough to manage a bootleg touchdown run in the red zone salvaging Taylor's box score even if his volume is otherwise modest.

Miami vs. Tennessee

Open: 43.5 O/U, TEN -3
Press time: 43.5 O/U, TEN -3

This could be ugly. Miami's offense has sputtered in all regards, and its most capable player, Jay Ajayi, gets a tough draw against a Tennessee run defense that has generally been good going back to last year. The talent is there for Ajayi, but the Dolphins have let him down badly in more favorable settings this year.

I have no idea what to do with Jay Cutler. He's capable of more, and there's talent at receiver for him to work with against this questionable Tennessee pass defense, but Jay never has been one to provide a sum reflective of his natural talent. Jarvis Landry and Kenny Stills can go as he does, and who knows where that's headed. With his big target volume and garbage time heroics, though, I think DeVante Parker projects nicely against this pass defense.

If Marcus Mariota (hamstring) isn't himself, the Titans offense will likely be bad. If he's out, it might get worse. Rishard Matthews, Eric Decker, and Delanie Walker are all in play to some extent due to their own skills, but Matt Cassel can erase what is an otherwise good group of pass catchers.

DeMarco Murray or Derrick Henry have the chance to score through volume and short fields if the Miami offense has sputtered as it has all year, but otherwise it doesn't look like the greatest matchup. The Dolphins run defense has been much better than it was last year, holding opposing running backs to just 214 yards and two touchdowns on 65 carries. You would think their task would get even tougher if Mariota isn't there to provide a running threat.

Indianapolis vs. San Francisco

Open: 43 O/U, PK
Press time: 44.5 O/U, IND -1.5

While the Colts run defense has played admirably this year, Carlos Hyde is playing at such a level that I don't find them at all intimidating. With 22 targets in four games, you can't be too scared off by the run defense matchup, anyway.

Against a Colts pass defense that has intercepted as many passes (six) as it has allowed passing touchdowns, it's hard to see how a quarterback playing as badly as Brian Hoyer would thrive. Perhaps the Colts' numbers look good in large part from playing Carson Palmer and DeShone Kizer, but I don't really feel like testing the theory myself.

Still, Pierre Garcon isn't a bad candidate to get something going. Not many receivers are likely to approach double-digit targets as reliably as he does each week. Trent Taylor and Aldrick Robinson are worth monitoring in case Marquise Goodwin (concussion) misses extended time, but for now they appear long shots.

The 49ers pass defense has been respectable as a whole, but they've allowed 8.4 yards per target to opposing wide receivers so far, and that's with every passing game other than the Rams playing rather poorly against them. I think Jacoby Brissett is worth tournament consideration in this one.

No matter Brissett's volume, T.Y. Hilton should be open quite a bit, and his chances of producing have to be at least decent. He's generally one of my favorite wideout plays this week. For now, it's hard to see this offense providing predictable value for any additional pass catcher other than Jack Doyle, though.

Frank Gore faces off against a defense that's been mostly competent against the run, holding opposing running backs under four yards per carry. There might be a chance for him to get going as a receiver, though – the 49ers have seen opponents target running backs 42 times through four games. I'll stay away, though.

Philadelphia vs. Arizona

Open: 45.5 O/U, PHI -6
Press time: 45 O/U, PHI -6.5

It generally looks like a tough matchup for Carson Wentz, who draws a defense allowing 6.4 yards per pass so far, though Matthew Stafford and Dak Prescott were both able to stay afloat against the Cardinals. Particularly with its running game a bit of a question without Wendell Smallwood (knee), Carson Wentz should be able to put together enough volume to keep his efficiency from tanking his box score.

Alshon Jeffery figures to see a lot of Patrick Peterson, but between his talent, the Eagles' potential dependency on the passing game, and the fact that he's on pace for 136 targets, I think Jeffery is a fine play in season-long formats and probably in DFS tournaments, too. For much as his memorable drops this year might tarnish his reputation, Torrey Smith has a YPT of 7.1, and he's still capable of adding a yard to that average in one play. Still, I think Nelson Agholor deserves more targets in this offense. Zach Ertz has a tough matchup, but he's been so good he's a top weekly projection at his position regardless of the opponent.

LeGarrette Blount and Corey Clement should both see regular usage in this one, though the question of what sort of return to expect is less clear. It generally seems like they would need a touchdown on a short field to provide much value, as the Cardinals have allowed 269 yards and two touchdowns to running backs on 92 carries (2.9 YPC).

The Eagles haven't been tested much against the run, allowing 222 yards on 56 carries to running backs (4.0 YPC), but it's difficult to see Chris Johnson doing a lot against anyone in particular. Andre Ellington is probably worth pursuing in a lot of scenarios after seeing 22 targets over his last two games, though.

As much as any or all of Larry Fitzgerald, John Brown, Jaron Brown, and J.J. Nelson should be able to get open against the Eagles secondary, the probability that Carson Palmer struggles with the Philadelphia pass rush means it might be a challenge for more than one of those wideouts to make a useful fantasy impact. The Chargers struggled against the Eagles pass rush last week, while Palmer got roughed up by the 49ers. He'll get a huge share of the volume for however many plays Arizona has the ball, though.

Giants vs. Chargers

Open: 44 O/U, NYG -3.5
Press time: 44.5 O/U, NYG -3

Although I don't think Wayne Gallman is a good prospect, I have no doubt he's better right now than Paul Perkins, who's broken in some way or another. As a result, I think Gallman is a very interesting play against a Chargers defense that has surrendered 5.4 yards per carry to running backs so far, good for a league-leading 611 yards.

Eli Manning is a coin flip against a defense allowing 7.5 yards per pass but with 12 sacks in three games. Joey Bosa and Melvin Ingram could be a problem. If Manning does have time to throw, though, and hits his targets reasonably well, any or all of his three receivers should be in position for usage. It's worth monitoring what might happen when Evan Engram collides with a defense that has allowed over 10 yards per target to tight ends, though on just 19 targets (14 catches for 206 yards).

Philip Rivers' numbers are better than I would have guessed, and to be fair that's including a trip to Denver. I'm still a bit concerned about how he might do against a Giants defense that might have the sort of slot corner (Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie) necessary to slow Keenan Allen, a crutch read for Rivers with 40 targets in four games. Whether it's Tyrell Williams or Travis Benjamin who gets Janoris Jenkins on a given play, the going isn't likely to be any easier for them. One of the three should have a good matchup in any three-wide set, though, and Antonio Gates and Hunter Henry are both candidates to step up against a Giants defense that gave up 29 catches for 309 yards and five touchdowns to tight ends on 38 targets.

The Chargers figure to make Melvin Gordon a focal point to whatever extent his knee can handle after he voiced displeasure with his workload. Against a Giants defense that allowed 4.5 yards per carry to running backs so far, it seems like a fine enough bounce spot if he gets the necessary usage. On the other hand, it doesn't take much to constitute a bounce back when the rushing average is at 3.1 yards per carry.

Detroit vs. Carolina

Open: 43.5 O/U, DET -2.5
Press time: 42.5 O/U, DET -2.5

Ameer Abdullah is really hitting his stride, just in time to get chased by Luke Kuechly. Despite the tough matchup, Abdullah is an every-week starter in most season-long contexts by now, and that he has three catches in three of his four games helps when he faces a tough opponent. Averaging 1.6 yards per carry and 4.3 yards per target, it sure seems like Theo Riddick is on the way out.

The Panthers have allowed just five passing touchdowns while conceding 6.3 yards per pass, so it's not a favorable setting for Matthew Stafford. Still, with the Detroit defense playing so well and the Panthers defense potentially limiting the run, Stafford might be able to provide some value through volume. In such a case, the same could apply to Golden Tate and Marvin Jones, though they've both disappointed lately.

Prospects arguably look even worse for the Carolina offense as they take on a Lions defense that has forced seven interceptions while allowing just four passing touchdowns. Detroit has allowed just 7.0 yards per target to receivers, so the running back duo of Jonathan Stewart and Christian McCaffrey might be Carolina's best hope of generating first downs. The Lions are allowing 4.0 yards per carry and 7.0 yards per target to running backs so far.

Rams vs. Seattle

Open: 46 O/U, SEA -2.5
Press time: 47.5 O/U, LAR -1.5

Seattle allowed big plays to DeMarco Murray and Carlos Hyde to inflate the yardage they've allowed on the ground, but you generally expect them to be ready for Todd Gurley as a runner. What Gurley has done as a receiver to this point makes him indefinitely matchup-proof, however. With 20 catches for 234 yards and three touchdowns on just 25 targets versus a yards per carry of 4.2, the Rams might want to explore even more receiving volume with Gurley's workload split.

While he's played very well, the idea of starting Jared Goff against the Seahawks feels a bit aggressive. Seattle has allowed just 6.1 yards per pass so far, with four passing touchdowns against three interceptions.

You would think the Rams will do with Sammy Watkins what they've mostly done this year, which is try to open up space underneath. Against a pass rush like Seattle's, I guess it makes more sense than usual. Robert Woods and Cooper Kupp might both get open at some points, but touchdowns or yardage after the catch ought to prove challenging.

Russell Wilson has likely single-handedly made your fantasy team competitive over the last two weeks wherever you had him, but I'm a bit concerned with this matchup. The Rams pass rush projects to be one of the better ones with Wade Phillips directing a crew led by Aaron Donald and Robert Quinn, and those two in particular are top-shelf talents the Seahawks offensive line is ill-suited to confront. Connor Barwin is also a double-digit sack threat. Wilson's talent sometimes transcends, but he might need to be even sharper than he's been the last two weeks.

If Wilson does have time to throw, however, you would think he'll get something going between Doug Baldwin or/and Tyler Lockett against a defense allowing 8.1 yards per target to receivers so far. Jimmy Graham would also be a fine candidate to produce in this case, as he has 133 yards on 17 targets over the last two weeks. The Rams have allowed 148 yards and two touchdowns on 18 targets to tight ends so far.

It looks like Seattle will close their eyes and hope Eddie Lacy or Thomas Rawls emerge as a hot hand, with J.D. McKissic otherwise taking up the usage that would normally go to C.J. Prosise. There should be an opportunity for one of the three to emerge in this game – the Rams have allowed 5.0 yards per carry and six touchdowns to running backs so far, along with 140 yards and a touchdown receiving on 24 targets. (Of course, a lot of that might be the result of seeing Carlos Hyde or Ezekiel Elliott in half of their games.)

Oakland vs. Baltimore

Open: 40 O/U, OAK -2.5
Press time: 39 O/U, OAK -3

It'd be a bit odd if Derek Carr played one week after a transverse process fracture, so for this I'll assume it's EJ Manuel at quarterback for Oakland. In that case, it'd make a bad situation significantly worse for Amari Cooper and Michael Crabtree. And I guess I'd figure that if Carr played, anyway too (due to the injury). While Cooper and Crabtree are talented enough to produce despite all that, the Ravens have seemed a lot more vulnerable from the middle of the field. If Marcedes Lewis can put three touchdowns on Baltimore, then the Raiders might be better off trying to create plays for Jared Cook.

Le'Veon Bell and Leonard Fournette have a lot to do with it, but Baltimore has allowed 4.4 yards per carry to running backs so far. Marshawn Lynch should have a decent workload as a runner against that defense if the Raiders can beat up on Joe Flacco like other teams have. Work as a pass catcher is generally unlikely, though.

I think Javorius Allen will always have some low-ceiling PPR utility when healthy this year, but it's difficult to foresee much upside if the Ravens offense as a whole remains so sluggish. While short fields are a possibility for Baltimore if their defense can get the better of Carr or Manuel, I don't really feel like approaching the Alex Collins/Terrance West situation.

Dallas vs. Green Bay

Open: 53.5 O/U, DAL -2
Press time: 53 O/U, DAL -2.5

In a league where the chalk so often disappoints, it might feel like a bit of a trap to heavily invest in a game that stands out from the rest of the slate, but all available indicators seem to point out favorable conditions for most or all of the players we care about.

Aaron Rodgers is of course the player you would least want to bet against. He has seven touchdowns on his last 68 attempts, and the home-field advantage from those two games was probably canceled out by the problematic offensive line play he dealt with while without his top two tackles, David Bakhtiari and Bryan Bulaga, both of whom appear ready to return. Whoever is at tackle will need to be on the top of their game with Dallas defensive end Demarcus Lawrence playing at a demonic level, totaling 7.5 sacks in four games.

If Davante Adams (concussion) is out, you can fire up Geronimo Allison as you always can when any of the top three Green Bay receivers are missing. Jordy Nelson is automatically in play in all scenarios, and this matchup might be a bit better than most. I think Randall Cobb has been a bit more productive than his numbers would imply since half of his targets were against Seattle. He might get a slight boost if Adams is out.

Dallas has been very good against tight ends, allowing just 191 yards on 30 targets. That combined with the potential need to keep extra help against Lawrence might bode poorly for Martellus Bennett. Then again, Bennett is due to make up for lost time one of these days, and it wouldn't be surprising if he found an extra gear against the team that drafted him. I'll make a DFS tournament lineup or two with him, perhaps against my better judgment.

Ty Montgomery (ribs) is likely out, so the split between Jamaal Williams and Aaron Jones is something worth thinking about. Williams' by-default depth chart advantage as a fourth-round pick might have been lessened by Jones' solid showing in relief of Montgomery last week. Jones definitely has more skill as a receiver between the two, but Williams might profile better for short-yardage work.

Ezekiel Elliott might have a better matchup than usual. The Packers are allowing 4.1 yards per carry to running backs so far, and that they've allowed 120 yards and two touchdowns on 19 targets to running backs hints at another way Elliott could contribute.

Dak Prescott should be a deservedly popular play this week against a Packers defense that was generally lenient on Matt Ryan and Andy Dalton. Prescott's typical volume limitations could be offset a bit if Rodgers scores as often as he is usually capable. As Dak goes, so go Dez Bryant and Jason Witten.

Houston vs. Kansas City

Open: 47 O/U, KC -3
Press time: 45 O/U, PK

Deshaun Watson might see some confusing looks from the Kansas City defense, and Justin Houston might not give him much time to figure it out. The Chiefs are allowing just 7.2 yards per pass, and have surrendered just four passing touchdowns on 146 attempts. Carson Wentz and Kirk Cousins were able to get some things done against them, though, and Watson's upside as a runner helps offset the other risks this matchup entails.

It will be interesting to see how the Chiefs handle DeAndre Hopkins and Will Fuller since they normally just play Marcus Peters on one side, with the other two corners (Terrance Mitchell and Phillip Gaines) generally proving vulnerable. Fuller might see Gaines for the most part, and while Gaines' 4.34 speed means he might be able to run with Fuller better than most, I still think Fuller can lose him when changing direction. Hopkins is in any case locked into a high-floor scenario, I think, as long as Houston is careful to keep him away from Peters.

Lamar Miller finally broke out last week, with a showing he's capable of repeating a couple times before the season is over. The Chiefs are allowing a respectable but not intimidating 3.8 yards per carry to running backs so far, and particularly with Fuller pushing the safeties back, Miller could make it two good games in a row as long as Watson doesn't implode.

Alex Smith has been awesome this year. I don't understand any of it, but it's true. This matchup should be enough to slow him, though, as the Texans are allowing 7.6 YPA despite getting shredded by Tom Brady for 378 yards and five touchdowns in Week 3. The Texans have allowed 8.7 yards per target to wide receivers, so I don't think you find the matchup intimidating for Tyreek Hill. The nature of his usage depresses big-time fantasy output without a busted coverage or huge run after the catch, but he's always capable of such things. Travis Kelce is so dominant that you shouldn't let any particular matchup keep you away, especially given that he has at least seven targets in three of four games.

Kareem Hunt should be contained by a defense allowing just 3.4 yards per carry to running backs a quarter of the way through the year, and that the Texans allowed just 14 receptions for 85 yards on 17 targets to running backs limits his projection, too. Still, at this point it appears safe to say that Hunt is the sort of talent who won't be shut out often. Maybe the Texans shut him down as either a runner or receiver, but both at once would be a monumental achievement for any defense.

Chicago vs. Minnesota

Open: 40.5 O/U, MIN -3.5
Press time: 40 O/U, MIN -2.5

Mitchell Trubisky probably can't be worse than Mike Glennon, so you wish he weren't making his debut against a talented Vikings defense. Trubisky will have his poise tested by the lethal defensive end duo of Danielle Hunter and Everson Griffen. Trubisky is a major running threat, though, so he has some intriguing fantasy upside beyond this matchup.

Jordan Howard gets a brutal draw on paper against a Vikings defense allowing just 3.3 yards per carry to opposing running backs, but he dominated this team in both games last year. The personnel hasn't changed much since, so perhaps there's some tournament logic here given that Howard posted 288 yards (5.9 YPC) against otherwise good Vikings defense in two games in 2016. He more likely regresses to the mean, but Howard is talented enough to produce against tough defenses generally. Tarik Cohen is probably the only other major consideration in the Bears offense, but you wonder how much he's capable of a team that has allowed just 18 running back receptions for 110 yards on 23 targets.

I have no idea what to expect of Sam Bradford in his first game since knee troubles knocked him out the last two weeks. The Bears defense isn't the easiest test, but at least they've allowed seven touchdowns while intercepting no passes so far.

While the Bears have done a good job against opposing receivers, limiting them to 7.4 yards per target, I think Stefon Diggs and Adam Thielen are talented enough that you don't get too worked up about their matchup as long as they have a decent quarterback. Be it Bradford or, if his knee flares up, Case Keenum, I think Diggs and Thielen should have what they need to do something. I'd generally be surprised if at least one didn't have a good game in any given week. Kyle Rudolph gets a shot at a defense that hasn't seen many tight end targets but is allowing more than 10 yards per target on the ones they do see.

Latavius Murray should be the closest thing Minnesota has for a workhorse back. Jerick McKinnon is a threat to do something, but I'm not sure Minnesota sees him as more than a part-time player. Murray's talent of course can't approach Cook's, though the potential for short fields and time-of-possession advantage make him a decent enough play, I think. While Murray has some skill as a pass catcher, I wouldn't expect it to show up against a Bears defense that's allowed just 15 receptions for 90 yards on 19 targets to running backs.