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Matchup Edge: Progress to the Mean

Mario Puig

Mario is a Senior Writer at RotoWire who primarily writes and projects for the NFL and college football sections.

Baltimore vs. Chicago

Open: 40 O/U, BAL -6.5
Press time: 39 O/U, BAL -6.5

Joe Flacco looked much better against Oakland last week, but it's not easy to buy into 26 pass attempts against the 118 that preceded them. Perhaps he'll be able to throw a couple touchdown passes on short fields if Mitchell Trubisky struggles as expected, but the over/under for yardage probably has to be 185 or so. The Bears are allowing just 7.0 YPA to wideouts so far, so if Flacco does get something going it might need to be through surprise Ben Watson and Javorius Allen. Considering they've allowed 278 yards and two touchdowns to tight ends on 31 targets, Watson might be the favorite to lead the Ravens in receiving production.

The Bears run defense has been respectable, allowing just 3.8 yards per carry to running backs, but favorable field positioning and game flow could put Allen and Alex Collins in position for success. Because he's a far superior pass

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