This article is part of our Weekly PGA Preview series.
The PGA Tour heads to historic Pebble Beach this week as the annual Ray Romano show takes center stage. The players have their work cut out for them if they are to top the drama from last week's Phoenix Open. It's rare we get two upper-tier golfers in a playoff during a regular PGA Tour stop, but that's exactly what unfolded last week. The field isn't exactly loaded this week, but there are certainly a few big names in the field.
After a week off, course rotation is back in play as three courses will be used throughout the week, with the final round at Pebble Beach. There is plenty of course history to consider, as well — the three courses have been used for a decade. The only other consideration is the pro-am format, which some players take to and others don't. This isn't the week to take a chance on someone who has a poor track record here, even if he comes in hot.
This week: AT&T Pebble Beach Pro Am – Pebble Beach Golf Links, Pebble Beach, Calif.
Last Year: Phil Mickelson shot a final-round 65 on his way to a three-stroke victory over Paul Casey.
FAVORITES
Dustin Johnson (6-1)
With the possible exception of Phil Mickelson, no one can hold a candle to Johnson's track record at this event. Seven of his 12 starts have resulted in a top-5, including two wins. The problem with
The PGA Tour heads to historic Pebble Beach this week as the annual Ray Romano show takes center stage. The players have their work cut out for them if they are to top the drama from last week's Phoenix Open. It's rare we get two upper-tier golfers in a playoff during a regular PGA Tour stop, but that's exactly what unfolded last week. The field isn't exactly loaded this week, but there are certainly a few big names in the field.
After a week off, course rotation is back in play as three courses will be used throughout the week, with the final round at Pebble Beach. There is plenty of course history to consider, as well — the three courses have been used for a decade. The only other consideration is the pro-am format, which some players take to and others don't. This isn't the week to take a chance on someone who has a poor track record here, even if he comes in hot.
This week: AT&T Pebble Beach Pro Am – Pebble Beach Golf Links, Pebble Beach, Calif.
Last Year: Phil Mickelson shot a final-round 65 on his way to a three-stroke victory over Paul Casey.
FAVORITES
Dustin Johnson (6-1)
With the possible exception of Phil Mickelson, no one can hold a candle to Johnson's track record at this event. Seven of his 12 starts have resulted in a top-5, including two wins. The problem with DJ this week is his form. DJ hasn't played since the Sentry, which was about a month ago, and a lot can happen to a golfer's game in four weeks. He had a similar schedule the last two years, which led to a runner-up in 2018 and a T45 last year.
Patrick Cantlay (12-1)
Like Johnson, Cantlay has not played in more than a month. Also like DJ, Cantlay looked pretty good the last time we saw him. Where they differ, however, is their track record at this event. While Johnson has owned this event over the years, Cantlay hasn't really accomplished anything. In three starts here, Cantlay's best finish is T9, which came in 2013.
Paul Casey (20-1)
It doesn't take long to reach those with odds in the 20-1 range, but that gives you an idea of how tilted this event is in Johnson's favor. Casey missed his first two cuts at this event and proceeded to stay away for years, but upon his return in 2018, he seemed to figure out these tracks. His two starts since returning have resulted in a T8 and solo runner-up. Casey has played fairly well in his two starts this year, but considering he missed the cut prior to his runner-up last year, it seems that form doesn't really matter for Casey this week.
MID-TIER GOLFERS
Jason Day (20-1)
Day hasn't been in top form for a while now, but he did score a top-20 in his most recent start, and his track record here is hard to ignore. Day has finished in the top-5 here in four of his last five starts and has finished outside the top 11 just once in his last seven starts.
Brandt Snedeker (25-1)
Snedeker was trending the right way heading into the Phoenix Open but proceeded to lay an egg. The good thing about this sport is golfers tend to bounce back fairly quickly after outings like that, especially those with a track record of success. Snedeker's track record at this event is stellar (two wins), and he's only two weeks removed from a good showing at the Farmers, which means a bounce-back should be expected.
Graeme McDowell (30-1)
McDowell is coming off an overseas win last week, and his track record here is good enough to suggest that he might be a factor this week. In six starts at this event, McDowell has three top-20s, two of which were top-10s as well. If he carries anything over from last week, he definitely has a shot to win this week.
LONGSHOTS
Daniel Berger (40-1)
It's been a while since Berger was a consideration to even contend, but he seems to be turning it around lately, and his only start at this event resulted in a top-10.
Scott Stallings (80-1)
It's that time of year when we see Stallings' track record here and rush to the waiver wire to pick him. It's not just here, Stallings has played well early in the season at a couple spots. But here he's posted three consecutive top-15s. He's also made the cut in five consecutive events on the PGA Tour, which might not seem like much, but for Stallings, it means his game is actually pretty solid.
ONE AND DONE GOLFER
Highly Owned Pick: Dustin Johnson - In previous years, OAD players were hesitant to use DJ in a spot like this because they'd want to save him for a bigger event, but considering his record at the majors the last few years, that's probably no longer the case. As I always say, use the golfer when he has the best chance to win. For DJ, that might be this week.
Moderately Owned Pick: Jason Day - If Day were near peak form, he'd be battling DJ for top ownership honors this week, but we know he's not, which might actually provide a bit of an opportunity. The way he's played the last 12 months, Day certainly is risky, but now that he's out of the mix as a top OAD option at the majors, this might be a good spot to use him.
Lightly Owned Pick: Graeme McDowell - McDowell will probably be on the radar of many this week, but I don't see him as a popular OAD option, which should provide some opportunity for those looking to make up some ground early in the season. Wins overseas rarely translate to wins on the PGA Tour, but McDowell's game has always run hot and cold, and he's obviously hot now.
Buyer Beware: Matthew Fitzpatrick - Fitzpatrick is quickly becoming one of the better players in the world. I expect him to play well this season, but a good showing might be too much to ask this week. The reason? He has just one start here and missed the cut. Whether it's the courses in the rotation or the format, something might bother him about this event, and I'd like to see him play well at least once before using him in this spot.
Last Week: Webb Simpson (1) $1,314,000; Season - $2,098,425
This Week: Paul Casey - I've been on a good run the last couple weeks and am tempted to drop the hammer in this spot and go with Johnson, but I'm not entirely convinced he's going to win this week. He's just not the dominant player that he once was, and while he's certainly capable of winning this week, I'm just not feeling it, at least, not enough to use him here. As for Casey, he's safe and has plenty of upside.
FANDUEL PICKS
High/Mid/Low: Paul Casey ($11,700)/Graeme McDowell ($10,400)/Adam Long ($8,800)
SURVIVOR PICK
Last week: Webb Simpson (1); Streak - 4
This Week: Dustin Johnson - With DJ no longer being a great play at the majors, I'm looking for other spots to use him in this format and what better spot that one where he's a perfect 10-for-10 making the cut. I'm not high on his win-prospects this week, but no doubt he makes the cut.
