This article is part of our DraftKings PGA DFS Picks series.
FARMERS INSURANCE OPEN
Purse: $6.5M
Winner's Share: $1,170,000
FedEx Cup Points: 500 to the Winner
Location: La Jolla, Calif.
Course: Torrey Pines GC South (7,698 yards, par 72), Torrey Pines GC North (7,052 yards, par 72)
Defending Champion: Jason Day
Tournament Preview
Continuing the West Coast Swing, the PGA Tour moves to Torrey Pines along the Pacific coastline for the 49th installment of the Farmers Insurance Open. Torrey Pines South Course is of greatest fanfare due to the epic 2008 U.S. Open at which a hobbled Tiger Woods outlasted Rocco Mediate for one of the most dramatic majors in recent memory. The tournament is setup for players to alternate between the South and North courses in the first 36 holes before returning to the tougher South track after the cut for the final two rounds. The field consists of 12 players from the top-30 in the world rankings, including defending champ Jason Day who will tee it up for the second time this season. Local draws Rickie Fowler and Phil Mickelson, fresh off great finishes last week, will look to tame the familiar grounds of their youth, but it won't be easy: Just once in the past dozen years has the 54-hole leader closed the deal Sunday. Look for the cream to rise to the top as the star-studded field challenges one of the longest tracks of the year in hopes of adding to the storied history.
Key Stats to winning at Torrey Pines
• Total Driving
• Strokes Gained Putting
Past Champions
2015 – Jason Day
2014 – Scott Stallings
2013 – Tiger Woods
2012 – Brandt Snedeker
2011 – Bubba Watson
2010 – Ben Crane
2009 – Nick Watney
2008 – Tiger Woods
2007 – Tiger Woods
2006 – Tiger Woods
Champion's Profile
Between the two courses in rotation this week, the North Course is unquestionably the easier of the two tracks, but is only played once. So the focus gets placed on who is likely to excel on the lengthy South Course, which has clearly been Tiger Woods in the past. Woods along with the other champions have displayed a knack for either power or putting prowess, or in Tiger's case, both. It's critical to note that Torrey Pines features poa annua greens, which are notoriously bumpy and favor players with more aggressive putting styles. A safe bet is to target longer players who putt well, which essentially narrows it down to the world's best. Players like Jason Day & Rickie Fowler epitomize the profile, but feel free to mix in great putters who lack length or long drivers who lack elite putting as they have found their way into contention in recent years.
DRAFTKINGS VALUE PICKS (Based on Standard $50K Salary Cap)
DraftKings Tier 1 Values
Jason Day - $12,000 (Winning Odds: 13%)
Rickie Fowler - $11,600 ( 9%)
Patrick Reed - $10,600 ( 5%)
Phil Mickelson - $10,500 ( 4%)
Jimmy Walker - $10,100 ( 4%)
DraftKings Tier 2 Values
Charles Howell III - $9,400 ( 2%)
DraftKings Tier 3 Values
Shane Lowry - $8,000 ( 2%)
Hunter Mahan - $7,900 ( 2%)
DraftKings Long-Shot Values
Scott Stallings - $7,200 ( 1%)
Retief Goosen - $7,000 ( 1%)
Jhonattan Vegas - $6,800 ( 1%)
Pat Perez - $6,700 ( 1%)
Michael Thompson - $6,600 ( 1%)
MY PICKS THIS WEEK
Lower-Risk Cash Game Lineup ($50K Salary Cap)
Brandt Snedeker - $10,700
Jimmy Walker - $10,100
Hunter Mahan - $7,700
Nick Watney - $7,600
Scott Stallings - $7,200
Pat Perez - $6,700
As a wise man once said, "The best predictor of future behavior is past behavior." This quote forms the basis of my entire lineup this week. Snedeker is an absolute beast on poa annua greens and his record at Torrey Pines is ironclad with four top-three finishes including a win since 2007. Jimmy Walker pops off the page with his length and elite putting to fit the winner's mold and has the history to support a potential win with three top-10s the last four tries at Torrey Pines. Hunter Mahan and Nick Watney have each made at least their last seven cuts at this venue with Watney winning in 2009 and Mahan notching back-to-back top-10s in 2011 and 2012. Scott Stallings is easily the most underrated champion at Torrey and he backed it up with a near win last year. Finally, Pat Perez grew up playing Torrey Pines and has an extensive history of made cuts and has quietly notched four top-25 efforts here the last five years.
Higher-Risk Tournament Lineup ($50K Salary Cap)
Jason Day - $12,000
Rickie Fowler - $11,600
Retief Goosen - $7,000
Michael Thompson - $6,600
Ollie Schniederjans - $6,500
Andres Gonzales - $6,300
Getting the top two in the field is an easy decision, as both Day and Fowler are coming off great years, and Fowler just won last week in Abu Dhabi. The hard part is pairing them with lower tier bargains who will make the cut. Retief Goosen is a grizzled veteran who has surprisingly only played at this event twice, but made the cut in both attempts and is well rested coming in. Michael Thompson tied for 11th here last season and enters with form off a top-30 last week. Ollie Schniederjans noticeably struggled in missing the cut last week but in his three prior events he made the cut and has upside for much more. Finally, Andres Gonzales is among just a few guys below $6,300 who have made a cut here, a T27 last year; in addition, he's made three of his last four cuts so I'm hoping he can slip inside the cutline again this week.
