This article is part of our DraftKings PGA DFS Picks series.
ZOZO CHAMPIONSHIP
Purse: $8.5M
Winner's Share: $1.53M
FedEx Cup Points: 500 to the Winner
Location: Chiba, Japan
Course: Narashino Country Club
Yardage: 7,079
Par: 70
2022 Champion: Keegan Bradley
Tournament Preview
Not too long ago, the PGA Tour had a full-fledged Asian Swing. It was a three-week stretch that was vitally important to the Tour, seeking to establish and maintain a foothold in the Far East. Circumstances changed, a pandemic happened, and now just one tournament remains. It's much tougher to get star players to travel so far for one event, as opposed to two or three, during what is essentially their offseason.
It is under that backdrop that the field for the ZOZO is pretty good -- the best of the fall season by far -- which granted isn't a high bar to clear. Tournaments during the newly-named FedExCup Fall have taken a big hit as the PGA Tour transitions to a calendar-based schedule. They will still count for a lot, though mostly for the fringe players seeking to keep their playing privileges. The fields have been, shall we say, uninspiring. For one week, that all changes.
Hideki Matsuyama and Sungjae Im headline this 78-man field, which also features Rickie Fowler, Xander Schauffele, Collin Morikawa plus defending champion Keegan Bradley. Fifteen of the top 50 in the world rankings are on hand. Others of consequence in this no-cut field are Sahith Theegala, Cam Davis, Adam Scott, Nicolai Hojgaard, Kurt Kitayama, Min Woo Lee and Akshay Bhatia. There also are a dozen players who compete mostly on the Japan Tour, notably Ryo Hisatsune -- ranked 103rd in the OWGR -- Keita Nakajima -- ranked 126th -- and Ryo Ishikawa, who is well known to American golf fans.
There used to be PGA Tour events in Malaysia and Korea and a WGC event in China. The Malaysian tournament went away and the ZOZO was born in 2019. And then the Korean and Chinese events ceased to exist, leaving only this one.
This will be the fifth year of the ZOZO Championship and its fourth iteration in Japan. In the inaugural event in 2019 and again the past two years, the tournament was played at Narashino Country Club; there was a pandemic-induced redirect to Las Vegas in 2020. Tiger Woods won the first ZOZO for his record-tying 82nd and likely final PGA Tour victory. That was quite an introduction for the Tour in its first-ever tournament in Japan, and the second one wasn't too shabby either. The country's pride and joy of men's golf, Matsuyama, made a triumphant return to his homeland as the 2020 Masters champion, then went out and won the ZOZO.
The ZOZO is co-sponsored by the PGA and Japan Tours and is contracted to run at least through 2025. The field has strict parameters: the top 60 available from last season's FedExCup Standings; the winner of the 2023 BMW Japan Golf Tour Championship; the top eight available from the 2022 JGT money list; and nine sponso'sr invites, of which Hojgaard is one. Most of them are Japanese players.
The 36-hole Narashino club not far from Tokyo opened in 1976. At about 7,100 yards, the course is short, even at a par-70. It's not a stock 70 -- there are five par-3s and three par-5s. There are some really short holes, some really long ones and not much in between. The par-3s are collectively short, with only one over 200 yards. The 10 par-4s are either less than 425 yards or more than 485. The par-5s are 587, 608 and the 562-yard 18th, meaning there is the potential for drama late on Sunday. There is water on four holes, but that's not enough of a defense for today's pro, so what other defenses are there? The fairways are narrow and tree-lined with dips and elevations, and there are dog legs. There is funky Zoysiagrass rough, and it's hard to control the ball coming out, so it's best to not be in it. Golfers will use driver only about half the time.
Each hole has two greens, which is customary in Japan. One set at Narashino is bentgrass, the other bermuda, and they do this in Japan to allow for seasonal changes. This week the golfers will use the bent greens and not rotate, other than on No. 4. If a ball lands on the other green, the golfer will get a free drop.
The four hardest holes last year were all long par-4s. The hardest was the fourth, at 505 yards with water almost the entire length. The other three are on the back, Nos. 11, 12 and 17, all around 490 yards. The short par-3s all played under par, and the par-5 18th was the by far the easiest hole on the course. There were 25 eagles all week and 15 of them came at 18.
In 2019, Woods shot a 19-under 261 by racking up a whopping 27 birdies. Matsuyama was three back and it was three more to Rory McIlroy and Im. Coincidentally or not, three days before that tournament, Woods, Matsuyama and McIlroy all played in a skins game at Narashino, a course unfamiliar to most of the field. The fourth particpant, Jason Day, tied for 22nd. Nine guys in the field have played all three Narashino tournaments and 21 have played in two, and 38 are back from last year. Of course, the Japanese players likely are much more familiar with this course.
As for the weather, temperatures will be in the 70s on Thursday and Friday, when it is forecast to be the windiest day of the week blowing around 20 mph. Things will calm down over the weekend with highs in the 60s, little wind and no rain. With a small field and no cut, there should not be any weather advantage.
Key Stats to Winning at Narashino Country Club
The most important indicators every week are current form and course history. "Key Stats" follow in importance.
• Driving Accuracy/Strokes Gained: Off-the-Tee
• Strokes Gained: Approach/Greens in Regulation
• Strokes Gained: Around-the-Green/Scrambling
• Strokes Gained: Putting
Past Champions
2022 - Keegan Bradley
2021 - Hideki Matsuyama
2020 - Patrick Cantlay (Sherwood CC)
2019 - Tiger Woods
Champion's Profile
The Tour does not provide Strokes Gained data for its international tournaments, so we are left with traditional stats. Last year, Bradley won by one over Fowler and Andrew Putnam and by two over Emiliano Grillo. None of them were long off the tee; all averaged under 300 yards. All but Putnam were in the top-5 in greens in regulation. All but Grillo ranked in the top-15 in putting average. In 2019, Woods ranked third in the field in greens in regulation and first in putting average. McIlroy, who tied for third that year, said Narashino reminded him of Chapultepec, where the old WGC-Mexico had been played. While Woods won at 19-under, Matsuyama and Bradley were both 15-under in their wins. The over/under on the winning score this week on golfodds.com was set at 264.5. That's 15.5 under par and the same as last year.
DRAFTKINGS VALUE PICKS
Based on Standard $50K Salary Cap
Tier 1 Values
Collin Morikawa - $10,800 (Winning odds at the DraftKings Sportsbook: +1100)
At a tournament where the scores have not gotten too low -- 15-under has been the winning score the past two editions -- and the emphasis on putting the ball in the fairway is so strong, Morikawa is a perfect fit and ranks as No. 1 in our model. He's ranked third on Tour in driving accuracy and second in Strokes Gained: Approach. Morikawa finished only 45th here last year, but was seventh in 2021.
Sungjae Im - $10,200 (+1400)
Im is another accurate drive, albeit not quite as laser-like as Morikawa. He had a great run in the PGA Tour playoffs, then stayed busy. He played in the Asian Games and won a team gold medal for Korea with Si Woo Kim, and that allowed both of them to avoid a looming military commitment that most Korean men must fulfill. With that weight lifted, Im shared runner-up at a tournament in Korea last week. The ZOZO does not have quite the same meaning to Im as it does to Matsuyama. But Im is Asian, so it still matters a lot. Besides, it's a great fit, and he tied for third behind Woods and Matsuyama in 2019.
Cam Davis - $9,500 (+2000)
The inclination is to go with Matsuyama here at $9,800. In some ways, this is his Super Bowl, and he won it two years ago. But we just don't know the state of his game. When we last saw Matsuyama, he was WDing from the BMW Championship with a back injury. He has not played since. Davis is the safer, and smarter, play. He ranks second in our model. He has played twice in the fall season, finishing top-10 both times. He finished 29th here last year in his ZOZO debut, but now is amid the best extended period of good golf of his career.
Tier 2 Values
Keegan Bradley - $9,200 (+2200)
Not only is Bradley the defending champion, and not only has he played this tournament well all three years it's been in Japan -- seventh in 2021, 13th in 2019 -- but this will be his first start since being snubbed for the Ryder Cup team. With some Team USA players in the field, Bradley surely will be primed to show he should've been a captain's pick.
Adam Svensson - $8,200 (+4000)
Svensson is coming off top-20s the past two weeks, and three in a row including the BMW Championship back in August. As mentioned last week when we picked him for the Shriners, Svensson is a very balanced player, good in all facets of the game and bad in none of them. His worst strokes-gained ranking is 81st in Around-the-Green. Plus he's 43rd in driving accuracy.
Aaron Rai - $8,000 (+4500)
A month ago, Rai finished second in the loaded BMW PGA Championship at Wentworth that featured all 12 European Ryder Cup players. He is extremely accurate tee to green, which is why he's ranked top-25 in SG: Tee-to-Green on the PGA Tour. The Englishman is fourth in driving accuracy and 12th in greens in regulation. His putting is what's holding him back, but even that has been better of late. Rai is still trying to finish the year in the so-called Next 10 in the point standings, which is 51st to 60th place. That would get him him into the first two Signature events next year. He's currently in 70th place.
Tier 3 Values
Tom Hoge - $7,800 (+6500)
Hoge is another great fit for this golf course, as evidenced by his top-10 here last year and top-20 the year before. He's hit more than 60 percent of his fairways this season -- good, not great -- but he really shines with his irons. Hoge is ranked ninth on Tour in SG: Approach. Plus, he is ranked 20th in this field in SG: Putting over his past 24 rounds. Hoge has been busy in the fall, jetting over to Europe for a couple of tournaments before resuming in the fall season on the PGA Tour.
Mark Hubbard - $7,600 (+7500)
Hubbard is among the shorter hitters in the field, but that won't be a concern this week. He is among the more accurate -- somewhat so off the tee but especially from the fairway. He's ranked 13th on Tour this season in SG: Approach, and also is 41st in SG: Around-the-Green. Hubbard missed the cut last week but was top-20 at the Fortinet and top-10 at the Sanderson Farms.
Sam Ryder - $7,000 (+8000)
Ryder ranks No. 1 in SG: Approach in the field over his past 24 rounds, and he's 26th on Tour for the season. He's also 13th in SG: Putting. He's another good fit for the course, which is why he tied for seventh here two years ago. Ryder has played in all three fall events to date, as he battles to finish in the Next 10 range in the FedExCup Standings. He currently sits 61st.
Long-Shot Values
Keita Nakajima - $6,800 (+7000)
Nakajima has not fared well in other PGA Tour events -- except this one. He tied for 12th last year and 28th the year before. He's been a roll playing on the Japan and Asian Tours, with a win and six total top-10s in his past eight starts. Nakajima is ranked third on the Japan Tour in greens in regulation.
Matthew NeSmith - $6,800 (+13000)
NeSmith is ranked in the top-60 on Tour in both driving accuracy and SG: Approach. He's been busy playing all three fall events so far, though with only one good finish (T25 at the Sanderson Farms). NeSmith still has a lot to play for, as he's ranked 72nd in the point standings and trying to get inside the top-60. A finish like last year here would go a long way toward that end -- he tied for ninth.
Ryutaro Nagano - $6,500 (+30000)
Since tying for 39th here last year, Nagano has played in only one tournament opposite PGA Tour players. That was when he tied for 20th at the U.S. Open. He is ranked 306th in the OWGR, but he was in the 500s earlier this year. In his past nine starts, Nagano has four top-5s in Japan and three other top-20s. One of those top-5s was a runner-up at the end of August to another player in the field, Young-han Song, who, at $6,000 (+50000), might be the best play among the ultra-cheap guys. Song is ranked second in Japan in driving accuracy and first in greens in regulation, and he used to be No. 69 in the world. He's currently 300th.
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