DraftKings PGA DFS Picks: John Deere Classic Picks

This article is part of our DraftKings PGA DFS Picks series.

Tournament Preview

On the brink of the Open Championship at historic St. Andrews, the Midwest will again play host to the John Deere Classic held near the Illinois/Iowa border. Elevation changes and rolling woodlands frame TPC Deere Run, a course that plays shorter than its 7,268 yardage indicates. Much like the previous two events, the John Deere Classic features a diluted field and low scoring, two reasons perennial favorites Steve Stricker and Zach Johnson have fared incredibly well here. The past six years have yielded winning scores averaging around 22-under, making plenty of birdies a prerequisite to contend. As a thoughtful gesture to attract top players, tournament officials annually provide a Sunday charter flight to those crossing the pond for next week's Open Championship.

Keys to winning at The TPC Deere Run

• Driving Accuracy
• Par-4 Scoring
• Birdie-or-Better Percentage (Par-Breakers)

Last Decade of Champions:

2014 – Brian Harman
2013 – Jordan Spieth
2012 – Zach Johnson
2011 – Steve Stricker
2010 – Steve Stricker
2009 – Steve Stricker
2008 – Kenny Perry
2007 – Jonathan Byrd
2006 – John Senden
2005 – Sean O'Hair

Champion's Profile

The list of champions points to a classy crowd of guys with multiple PGA Tour wins. The key takeaway is the cream generally rises to the top in this weaker-fielded event, but it doesn't necessarily mean dark horses can't contend here. Whenever scores in the 20-under range are needed to win, players with "go-low" ability deserve a strong look. This means players with proven ability to hit it close from 100-150 yards and convert birdies with solid putting. TPC Deere Run features three par-5s, 11 par-4s and four par-3s, putting a slight emphasis on par-4 scoring. The Midwest crowds have latched onto local draws Steve Stricker and Zach Johnson, who are not only among the best in the field but also have the games to bunch together birdies with accurate driving, deadly short irons, and elite putting.

DRAFTKINGS VALUE PICKS (Based on Standard $50K Salary Cap)

DraftKings Tier 1 Values

Jordan Spieth - $13,700 (Odds: 3/1)
Zach Johnson - $11,400 (9/1)
Kevin Kisner - $10,700 (14/1)

DraftKings Tier 2 Values

Ryan Moore - $9,900 (Odds: 25/1)
Steve Stricker - $9,300 (30/1)
Justin Thomas - $8,700 (33/1)
Tony Finau - $8,500 (33/1)

DraftKings Tier 3 Values

Seung-Yul Noh - $8,300 (Odds: 55/1)
Kevin Chappell - $8,100 (60/1)
Patrick Rodgers - $8,000 (60/1)
Danny Lee - $7,700 (50/1)

DraftKings Long-Shot Values

Bo Van Pelt - $7,100 (Odds: 80/1)
Chad Campbell - $6,800 (100/1)
Tim Clark - $6,700 (110/1)
Will Wilcox - $6,400 (110/1)
Jonas Blixt - $6,300 (125/1)
Hudson Swafford - $6,200 (150/1)
Brian Stuard - $6,000 (150/1)

MY PICKS THIS WEEK

Lower-Risk Cash Game Lineup ($50K Salary Cap)

Zach Johnson - $11,400
Steve Stricker - $9,300
Jerry Kelly - $8,400
Scott Langley - $8,300
Will MacKenzie - $6,600
Brian Davis - $6,000

Simply put, it's ignorant to avoid Zach Johnson and Steve Stricker in a cash game lineup given their unreal records at this event. Johnson has finished outside the top-3 just ONCE the past six years, while Stricker had three consecutive wins at the John Deere Classic from 2009-2011. Jerry Kelly hails from nearby Wisconsin much like Stricker, and holds top-5s his last two starts here. Langley is a University of Illinois player who has a decent record and comes in with solid form. Will MacKenzie has made 5-of-6 cuts at this event his best a T4 in 2008. Lastly, Davis unsurprisingly has made 6-of-7 cuts here given his ability to hit fairways and greens.

Higher-Risk Tournament Lineup ($50K Salary Cap)

Jordan Spieth - $13,700
Patrick Rodgers - $8,000
Danny Lee - $7,700
Bo Van Pelt - $7,100
Chad Campbell - $6,800
Tim Clark - $6,700

Spieth will honor his commitment to play in the tournament where he broke through as a 19-year-old to earn his PGA Tour card, and at 3/1 odds, he has a phenomenal chance to win at a diluted field heading into next week's Open Championship. Patrick Rodgers is a popular pick because of his ability to make bunches of birdies; if he can avoid the one bad round he's been struggling with, he can easily find himself in contention Sunday. Danny Lee comes off a playoff maiden victory last week at a similar birdie fest and should carry over his play to a similar style of course. Bo Van Pelt's only win came in Milwaukee where birdies were a necessity and finished T7 at the John Deere last year. Chad Campbell provides great stability with four top-15s here the last seven years. Finally, Tim Clark is a calculated risk in my bottom slot as he recovers from a left elbow injury he has battled all year, but nothing will ease his pain more than a place he's notched three top-10s, including a runner-up in 2007.