This article is part of our DraftKings PGA DFS Picks series.
QUICKEN LOANS NATIONAL
Purse: $6.7M
Winner's Share: $1,206,000
FedEx Cup Points: 500 to the Winner
Location: Gainesville, Va.
Course: Robert Trent Jones Golf Club
Yardage: 7,385
Par: 71
Defending Champion: Justin Rose
Tournament Preview
Bordering Virginia's tranquil Lake Manassas, Robert Trent Jones Golf Club will host the Quicken Loans National, site of the 1994, 1996, 2000, and 2005 Presidents Cup. This will be the Quicken Loans first visit to this exclusive course as the tournament alternates away from Congressional CC in odd-numbered years. The renowned course will play to a par 71, with three par-5s, 11 par-4s, and four par-3s. Two-time and defending Quicken Loans champion Justin Rose headlines a weaker field composed of just three players in the top 15 world rankings, including Rickie Fowler and Jimmy Walker. Tournament host Tiger Woods also enters the field fresh off missing two straight cuts at majors for the first time in his career. With as many questions about Tiger as there are about the course, it will be intriguing week to watch and see what unfolds.
Key Stats to winning at Robert Trent Jones GC
• Driving Distance
• Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green
• Greens in Regulation Greater than 200 yards
Last Decade of Champions
2014 – Justin Rose
2013 – Bill Haas
2012 – Tiger Woods
2011 – Nick Watney
2010 – Justin Rose
2009 – Tiger Woods
2008 – Anthony Kim
2007 – K.J. Choi
Champion's Profile
Given the lack of history about the course, event history going back to 2007 can essentially be ignored. The bentgrass-based course is fairly long with four par-4s playing 465 yards or longer and features up to seven approach shots of more than 200 yards. Furthermore, the greens are quite undulated and pose problems for players finding the wrong quadrants of the green. This emphasizes the importance of driving distance, the ability to hit quality shots from greater than 200 yards, and excellent putting touch. For those playing it safe it's probably wise to stick with the top-ranked players who generally adjust to new courses better than most, but for risk-takers there's an opportunity to strategically gamble on a small 120-player field with less risk than a typical PGA Tour event.
DRAFTKINGS VALUE PICKS (Based on Standard $50K Salary Cap)
DraftKings Tier 1 Values
Justin Rose - $12,200 (Odds: 15/2)
Rickie Fowler - $11,700 (17/2)
Jimmy Walker - $11,000 (25/2)
DraftKings Tier 2 Values
Justin Thomas - $10,000 (Odds: 24/1)
Tony Finau - $9,800 (35/1)
Bill Haas - $9,200 (35/1)
Danny Lee - $9,100 (35/1)
Gary Woodland - $9000 (45/1)
DraftKings Tier 3 Values
Harris English - $8,300 (Odds: 50/1)
Jason Bohn - $8,100 (50/1)
Andy Sullivan - $8,100 (60/1)
David Lingmerth - $7,800 (60/1)
George McNeill - $7,600 (75/1)
Nick Watney - $7,300 (75/1)
Scott Pinckney - $7,200 (80/1)
Cameron Tringale - $7,100 (80/1)
DraftKings Long-Shot Values
Charles Howell III - $6,500 (Odds: 110/1)
Camilo Villegas - $6,500 (110/1)
Jonas Blixt - $6,400 (140/1)
Ricky Barnes - $6,100 (130/1)
Chesson Hadley - $6,100 (150/1)
Hudson Swafford - $5,900 (160/1)
MY PICKS THIS WEEK
Lower-Risk Cash Game Lineup ($50K Salary Cap)
Justin Rose - $12,200
Jimmy Walker - $11,000
Stewart Cink - $7,800
Nick Watney - $7,300
Ricky Barnes - $6,100
Whee Kim - $5,500
Although Justin Rose has a phenomenal history at this event, it's not even a factor in my choice; I'm choosing him because he's the best in the field in great form with a win at the Zurich Classic, two top-10s in majors, and a near win at the Memorial Tournament in 2015. Jimmy Walker will vie for his third win of 2015, and hits it plenty long and accurate while also leading the PGA Tour in strokes gained putting. Stewart Cink is on a roll with back-to-back top-20s and is fourth on tour in GIR percentage, ranking top-15 from > 200 yards as well. Nick Watney has hung around five of his last six weekends and is long enough to tame the long par-4s. Ricky Barnes is a bargain this week coming of two straight top-11 finishes, while Whee Kim at just - $5500 fills in the bottom of the roster with higher risk but tied for third at the Barbasol Championship two weeks ago.
Higher-Risk Tournament Lineup ($50K Salary Cap)
Justin Thomas - $10,000
Tony Finau - $9,800
Will Wilcox - $8,900
Harris English - $8,300
Jason Kokrak - $6,500
Camilo Villegas - $6,500
In a tournament format, this week represents a green light to neglect some of the favorites and instead opt for more risk with a smaller field and many unknowns about how the course will play. As such I am focusing on long hitters who have played well this season, namely Justin Thomas, Tony Finau, and Will Wilcox. Thomas has been in contention to win his last two starts, Finau has collected eight top-25 his last nine events, and Will Wilcox has run off two consecutive top-10s and leads the tour in GIR % from > 200 yards. Harris English is long and talented and a safe bet to make the cut, while Kokrak and Villegas are also bombers who have each missed just one cut since early June.
