DraftKings PGA DFS Picks: The Open Championship Picks

DraftKings PGA DFS Picks: The Open Championship Picks

This article is part of our DraftKings PGA DFS Picks series.

OPEN CHAMPIONSHIP

Purse: $9.2M
Winner's Share: $1.66M
FedEx Cup Points: 600 to the Winner
Location: Fife, Scotland
Course: St. Andrews (Old Course)
Yardage: 7,305
Par: 72
Defending Champion: Rory McIlroy

Tournament Preview

For the 29th time in its storied 144-year history, St. Andrews will play host to this week's Open Championship. Since its most recent Open in 2010, the Old Course has been lengthened and tweaked in minor ways, including new bunkers on four holes and expansion of the infamous Road Hole Bunker on hole 17. As is the case with many links courses, wind conditions dictate the scoring difficulty; when calm it is vulnerable, when windy it presents a menacing mental and physical challenge. With Rory McIlroy out of commission this week rehabbing his ankle, Jordan Spieth will strive for his third straight major and World No. 1 status. Should Spieth win, pandemonium would ensue at the PGA Championship as he seeks golf's first ever grand slam in a calendar year. Looking at the last three Open Championships held at St. Andrews, the course has lent itself to a runaway champion in the 14- to 19-under range, the closest competitor an average of seven strokes behind.

Key Stats to winning at St. Andrews

Driving Distance
Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green
Scrambling
Proven History on Links courses

Last Decade of Champions:

2014 – Rory McIlroy
2013 – Phil Mickelson
2012 – Ernie Els
2011 – Darren Clarke
2010 – Louis Oosthuizen (St. Andrews)
2009 – Stewart Cink
2008 – Padraig Harrington
2007 – Padraig Harrington
2006 – Tiger Woods
2005 – Tiger Woods (St. Andrews)

Champion's Profile

St. Andrews identifies long hitters who can get away with bombing it around the course, provided they avoid the nasty bunkers. There are only two par-5s (only one truly reachable in two shots), but length is mostly beneficial due to seven par-4 holes under 400 yards. A few of these are drivable in the right conditions, setting up some easier birdie opportunities. New bunkers were added to force more precision on tee shots, but with 200 yards added to the course it should continue to heavily favor bombers. In addition to length, a solid history at links courses is a key component for picking favorites, as is the ability to scramble after finding the treacherous bunkers.

DRAFTKINGS VALUE PICKS
(Based on Standard $50K Salary Cap)

DraftKings Tier 1 Values

Jordan Spieth - $12,000 (Odds: 5/1)
Dustin Johnson - $11,400 (11/1)
Justin Rose - $10,900 (18/1)
Adam Scott - $10,700 (20/1)
Henrik Stenson - $10,200 (20/1)

DraftKings Tier 2 Values

Rickie Fowler - $9,700 (Odds: 16/1)
Tiger Woods - $8,600 (25/1)
Hideki Matsuyama - $8,600 (33/1)
Brandt Snedeker - $8,600 (40/1)
Branden Grace - $8,100 (40/1)
Shane Lowry - $8,100 (35/1)
Jimmy Walker - $8,000 (55/1)

DraftKings Tier 3 Values

Matt Kuchar - $7,900 (Odds: 45/1)
Jim Furyk - $7,700 (70/1)
Victor Dubuisson - $7,500 (66/1)
Bernd Wiesberger - $7,300 (70/1)
Tommy Fleetwood - $7,300 (66/1)
Kevin Kisner - $7,000 (80/1)

DraftKings Long-Shot Values

Andy Sullivan - $6,700 (Odds: 150/1)
Charley Hoffman - $6,600 (125/1)
Tyrrell Hatton - $6,600 (200/1)
David Howell - $6,400 (150/1)
Robert Streb - $6,400 (200/1)
Soren Kjeldsen - $6,300 (250/1)

MY PICKS THIS WEEK

Lower-Risk Cash Game Lineup ($50K Salary Cap)

Adam Scott - $10,700
Paul Casey - $9,200
Martin Kaymer - $8,800
Shane Lowry - $8,100
Edoardo Molinari - $6,500
Stewart Cink - $6,400

Adam Scott is an elite links player with top-5s his last three Open Championships. Paul Casey has knocked on the door of victory multiple times this season and was top 5 in 2010 at St. Andrews. Martin Kaymer has made six of seven Open Championship cuts, his best a tie for seventh at St. Andrews in 2010. Lowry has lit up links courses his whole career on the European Tour and would love nothing more than to contend at his favorite championship. Edoardo Molinari tied for seventh last year and made the cut at St. Andrews last time. Finally, Stewart Cink is the 2009 Open champion who has thrived on links courses due to his conservative play and great short game.

Higher-Risk Tournament Lineup
($50K Salary Cap)

Jordan Spieth - $12,000
Tiger Woods - $8,600
Graeme McDowell - $7,600
Bernd Wiesberger - $7,300
Tommy Fleetwood - $7,300
Joost Luiten - $7,100

Despite the low likelihood of winning three consecutive majors, it seems more plausible than ever for the 21-year-old Spieth, who conquered the season's first two majors and is coming off a playoff win at the John Deere Classic last week. Woods put together three rounds in the 60s at the Greenbrier Classic, and although this means little in regard to major championships, Tiger is worth the risk given his lower-ownership level and blistering record at St. Andrews since 2000. McDowell has notched two top-10s his last three Open Championships, and clearly has the makeup to grind if the weather kicks up. Wiesberger has only two starts at the Open Championship, but comes in hot off a 3-shot victory at the Astom Open de France and is fourth in the Race to Dubai rankings. The young Tommy Fleetwood notched a top-10 at last week's Scottish Open despite a Sunday 2-over 72; he will not be highly owned and is a nice differentiator in the 170K entry Millionaire Maker event. Lastly, Luiten is a decent value at $7,100 and comes in on the heels of a T4 at the Scottish Open last week.

The author(s) of this article may play in daily fantasy contests including – but not limited to – games that they have provided recommendations or advice on in this article. In the course of playing in these games using their personal accounts, it's possible that they will use players in their lineups or other strategies that differ from the recommendations they have provided above. The recommendations in this article do not necessarily reflect the views of RotoWire. Michael Riek plays in daily fantasy contests using the following accounts: FanDuel: mriek25.
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ABOUT THE AUTHOR
Michael Riek
Michael is the 2016 FSWA Golf Writer of the Year winner. He is a former collegiate golfer with a passion for analytics and strategy.
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