This article is part of our DraftKings PGA DFS Picks series.
VALERO TEXAS OPEN
Purse: $8.6M
Winner's Share: $1.548M
FedEx Cup Points: 500 to the Winner
Location: San Antonio, Texas
Course: TPC San Antonio (The Oaks Course)
Yardage: 7,438
Par: 72
2021 champion: Jordan Spieth
Tournament Preview
Turning 100 is not easy. Not many people do it. Even fewer golf tournaments do it. But the Texas Open has reached this historic milestone. It was exactly 100 years ago that the first Texas Open was played -- you'll recall that in 1922 Bob McDonald edged Cyril Walker by a stroke to pocket a cool 1,500 bucks. It is the sixth oldest tournament in the world, behind only the Open Championship, U.S. Open, PGA Championship and the old Western (now BMW) and Canadian Opens.
To be sure, it has missed two years along the way, in 1943 during World War II and 2020 because of the pandemic. But that shouldn't make the 100th anniversary any less of an accomplishment. In fact, this is the only one of those centenarian tournaments to have been played in only one city ever, that being San Antonio.
There is so much history steeped in this tournament, going all the way back to the hey day of Hall of Famer Walter Hagen, who won the second edition in 1923. The Texas Open has been moved around a lot through the years before being given the coveted slot before the Masters three years ago. (To be honest, that would not have happened without Valero, the title sponsor since 2002, re-upping for 10 years through 2028.) The tournament has been played in January, February, March, April, May, September, October and even November. It's moved around so much you'd think it was Octavio Dotel or Jamal Crawford.
Those aren't exactly household names, but there are a handful in this 144-man field. Native son and defending champion Jordan Spieth heads the list, along with Rory McIlroy, Bryson DeChambeau, Abraham Ancer, 2019 champion Corey Conners and Hideki Matsuyama, who will return to action from a neck injury a week in advance of his Masters defense. The tournament did have Scottie Scheffler in its original field, but he pulled out even before winning the Match Play and becoming No. 1 in the world. That was a blow to tournament organizers, who are left with only six of the top-25 and a mere eight of the top-50. But there a number of other big-name guys, albeit older and not ranked where they used to be. Jason Day, Rickie Fowler, Ian Poulter, Matt Kuchar, Henrik Stenson and Brandt Snedeker all have been fixtures at the Masters through the years, but none is in the field and would need to win here to play next week. The same goes for a sentimental favorite in Richard Bland, the 49-year-old Englishman who barely missed an Augusta invite with an OWGR ranking of 53. In a nice touch, he was granted a sponsor's invite into the Valero.
The Oaks opened in 2010, a Greg Norman design "with assistance from Sergio Garcia," as the official website states. There's also another course at TPC San Antonio built by Pete Dye, so it's quite an honor for Norman that his is the championship 18. The course is long and has some very long holes, including two 600-yarders and another par-5 at 591. There are five par-4s at about 450-plus. Two of the par-3s exceed 200 yards, one of them a mammoth 241. However, another par-3, the 213-yard 3rd hole, has been reduced this year to 171 yards on the scorecard. No matter, this still sounds like it would suit Norman just fine back in his glory days -- you know, when the PGA Tour used to be his first choice of Tours.
There are towering oak trees that line the narrow fairways, water on three holes and some of the 64 bunkers are enormous, including two that are bigger than many PGA Tour greens. There is a lot of native land that can lead to very crooked numbers. Kevin Na famously found a native area on the par-4, 474-yard 9th hole in 2011, and he eventually walked off with a 16. Despite all those pitfalls, the week could very well tip on the wind, and how hard it's blowing down around San Antone. The greens are bermuda with poa overseed, above average in size at 6,400 square feet and run a slow 11 on the Stimpmeter. But many have undulations and multiple levels. Tournament officials did make things a bit easier in 2019, however, widening the fairways a bit and cutting the rough, perhaps to better mimic Augusta. Whatever the reason, Conners shot 20-under in winning that year, the highest winning score at The Oaks in a decade -- by three shots. Spieth followed up at 18-under last year.
Weather-wise, it will be hot -- in the upper-80s all week. But there will be no rain and, right now at least, the forecast is calling for light to moderate wind. Of course, that could change in a heartbeat.
Key Stats to Winning at TPC San Antonio
The most important indicators every week are current form and course history. "Key Stats" follow in importance.
• Ball Striking/Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green
• Strokes Gained: Approach/Greens in Regulation
• Strokes Gained: Putting
• Birdie Average
Past Champions
2021 - Jordan Spieth
2020 - None
2019 - Corey Conners
2018 - Andrew Landry
2017 - Kevin Chappell
2016 - Charley Hoffman
2015 - Jimmy Walker
2014 - Steven Bowditch
2013 - Martin Laird
2012 - Ben Curtis
Champion's Profile
For the first eight years at The Oaks, the winning score was between 8- and 14-under. Then it jumped to 17-under with Landry in 2018 and to 20-under with Conners in 2019. Spieth continued the trend with an 18-under total a year ago. So we've definitely seen an increase in birdie importance. No matter who you're targeting this week, focus on guys with strong ball striking/tee-to-green games. Spieth ranked fourth in SG: Approach and third in SG: Tee-to-Green, plus third in SG: Around-the-Green and sixth in Putting. Conners ranked fourth in SG: Off-the-Tee, first in Approach and second in Tee-to-Green, and he was even pretty good on the greens at 26th in Putting. The over/under on the winning score on golfodds.com was 271.5 -- 16.5 under par.
DRAFTKINGS VALUE PICKS
Based on Standard $50K Salary Cap
Tier 1 Values
Jordan Spieth - $10,600 (Winning odds at the DraftKings Sportsbook: +1400)
Spieth heads our list, over the two guys priced higher than him -- Rory McIlroy at $11,200 and Hideki Matsuyama at $10,800. It's not that we like Spieth so much. But we like him more than McIlroy, who did not play the week before the past seven Masters and is just trying to mix things up for next week, and Matsuyama, who is dicey with a neck injury that knocked him out of last week's Match Play. Spieth of course is the defending champion with a runner-up back in 2015, but he's not really on form with only one top-20 in the first three months of 2022.
Abraham Ancer - $10,300 (+2200)
Ancer has played decently here, making all four cuts but with a best of T23, accomplished last year. But he is a terrific ball striker, ranking 42nd on Tour in that department, and is coming off a good week in which he blitzed Collin Morikawa in match play. Ancer is a native Texan and will be one of the big drawing cards this week. He is sure to find himself in a featured group.
Corey Conners - $9,800 (+1800)
Two of the last places you'd expect to see Conners play very well are here, where he won in 2019, and Austin Country Club, where he finished third last week in the Match Play. Both usually require great putting, two words rarely associated with Conners. But he putted decently in 2019, ranking 26th in the field, and otherwise is the best ball striker in the whole field, ranked fourth on Tour.
Si Woo Kim - $9,600 (+2800)
Kim has been a regular at the Valero, finishing fourth the year Conners won along with two other top-25s. He's ranked an impressive 34th on Tour in ball striking and, other than putting, has pretty good stats across the board. Even with trouble on the greens, he's ranked 27th in birdie average. He has four top-25s so far in 2022 and just missed two others.
Tier 2 Values
Chris Kirk - $9,400 (+2500)
We'll admit that out four Tier 2 plays are pretty chalky. But there are two choices: pick chalk or pick guys you don't like. Kirk, as we've said often in recent weeks, is having the best tee-to-green season of his career, ranked 10th on Tour. He loves this track, with three top-8s in the past six editions, including T6 a year ago.
Gary Woodland - $9,300 (+3000)
Woodland certainly has been showing a return to form we had not seen from him in a couple of years. He was 21st at the Valspar after a pair of top-5s at the Honda and Bay Hill to start the Florida Swing. Woodland still hits it a ton off the tee and is better than average in every strokes-gained category. He tied for sixth here a year ago -- when he was not playing nearly as well as he is now.
Adam Hadwin - $8,900 (+4000)
Hadwin has played here only three times, but one of them was last year when he tied for 23rd. He's amid his best season in a few years and is ranked 26th on Tour in ball striking. He's coming off a pair of top-10s at THE PLAYERS and the Valspar, and one more decent week would lift him back inside the top 100 of the OWGR.
Russell Knox - $8,300 (+6500)
The 160-pound Knox is not a long hitter, which makes some of his numbers all the more impressive: second in greens in regulation, 13th in ball striking, 16th in SG: Approach and 21st in SG: Tee-to-Green. He's jumped more than 100 spots in the world rankings since the fall, highlighted by a tie for sixth at THE PLAYERS. All of that is why where putting aside the fact that he's missed his past three Valero cuts.
Tier 3 Values
Patton Kizzire - $8,000 (+5500)
Kizzire is amid a surge that has him on the verge of returning to the top 100 in the world for the first time since 2016. He's made seven of eight cuts in 2022 with a top-10 and two top-25s, one of them at THE PLAYERS. His putting is not as good as it used to be, but he's ranked 40th in SG: Approach. He debuted at the Valero a year ago with a tie for ninth.
Matt Kuchar - $7,800 (+7500)
Kuchar has been coming to the Oaks for years, and with great success. He has made nine straight cuts, with two top-10s and five top-15s, including last year's tie for 12th. Kuchar is now 43 and far from his best days, but he still has a pretty sharp short game. He tied for 16th last time out at the Valspar.
Brendan Steele - $7,600 (+8000)
Steele seems to have put a brutal start to 2022 behind him, with a tie for 26th at Bay Hill followed by a T13 at THE PLAYERS. Through five straight missed cuts to begin the year, his great ball striking was still there, and he's currently ranked 33rd on Tour. Steele has made six straight cuts at the Valero.
Martin Laird - $7,500 (+10000)
Laird was the 2013 Valero champion and, while he hasn't come close to winning again, he's done well. Since then he's had a pair of top-20s and was 30th last year. He is a little pricier than we would have hoped, but you have to pay at least a little bit for elite ball striking -- Laird is ranked 14th on Tour, to go along with top-25 rankings in both SG: Approach and Tee-to-Green. Don't ask about his putting.
Long-Shot Values
Aaron Rai - $6,800 (+20000)
Regular readers know our affinity for Rai, and missed cuts in his past two starts won't dissuade us. The Englishman is still ranked 65th on Tour in ball striking, in large part because he's 21st in driving accuracy. Rai will be making his Valero debut.
Austin Smotherman - $6,800 (+13000)
The 27-year-old SMU alum is ranked outside the top 300, but he has shown glimmers, such as a tie for 11th at the Farmers and a T25 at the Valspar. He's ranked 29th on Tour in ball striking -- no easy task at 5-foot-11 and 155 pounds. This will be his Valero debut, and his odds definitely caught our eye, as they are far shorter than guys with similar DFS prices.
Hayden Buckley - $6,700 (+20000)
The hot start to his PGA Tour career in the fall faded soon after the new year arrived, but Buckley rebounded with a tie for 13th last week at the opposite-field event in the Dominican. He carries an elite ranking of 12th in ball striking into his first Valero appearance, and he's also ninth in SG: Off-the-Tee and 50th in Tee-to-Green.
Lee Hodges - $6,500 (+20000)
Like a lot of guys in the long-shot range, Hodges would not draw our attention in a stronger field. But there will be little-known guys making a dent this week, and some a lot more than a dent. Hodges is ranked 68th in ball striking, and right around the top-50 in SG: Off-the-Tee and driving accuracy. He's a had a couple of great weeks in 2022, finishing third at the Amex and ninth at the Honda.
