This article is part of our DraftKings PGA DFS Picks series.
WELLS FARGO CHAMPIONSHIP
Purse: $7.5M
Winner's Share: $1.35M
FedEx Cup Points: 500 to the Winner
Location: Wilmington, N.C.
Course: Eagle Point Golf Club
Yardage: 7,396
Par: 72
2015 champion: James Hahn
Tournament Preview
After a fun week of team play at the Zurich Classic, it's back to every man for himself on the PGA Tour. Traditional stroke play returns at the Wells Fargo Classic, though this week will be far from traditional. Quail Hollow is amid preparations for the PGA Championship this summer, so the annual Charlotte Tour stop has moved to Eagle Point Golf Club in Wilmington, N.C. So what we have here is pretty much the diciest situation in all of Fantasy Golf: an extra jumbo field of 156 -- and not an especially strong one, at that -- playing on a course with no tournament history.
That said, Eagle Point should be a cool track to watch a tournament; it's located just a mile from the Atlantic and is described as having both a North Carolina and South Carolina feel to it, with a dash of Augusta thrown in. Since it's not especially long, we'll devise the Key Stats and Champion's Profile by focusing on some really tricky green surfaces. There are many false fronts and collection areas, not unlike Augusta. Many greens have undulations and multiple levels, and are guarded by water and sand. A lot of water, a lot of sand. Clearly, getting the ball on the green will be paramount this week and, since golfers will invariably miss from time to time, scrambling acumen will come into play. The not-so-narrow fairways are majestically tree-lined, with some trees decades older than the course itself, a Tom Fazio design in 2000.
The field features world No. 1 Dustin Johnson in his first start since withdrawing from the Masters with a back injury. He's the only top-10 player in action a week before The Players Championship. He'll be joined by top-20-somethings Adam Scott, Alex Noren, Jon Rahm, Patrick Reed and Phil Mickelson. The most-owned golfer might be one sitting well outside the top-50: North Carolina native Webb Simpson tweeted in March that "I learned to play golf at Eagle Point." Simpson and Carl Pettersson (course-record 62) are both members.
Looking specifically at some of the holes we'll see on TV, the second is a short, downhill 161 yards to a small green that invites all sorts of trouble with water on the left; No. 4 is a whopping 640 yards, the second-longest hole on the PGA Tour; the fifth could be the hardest hole on the course, a 207-yarder with a tiny green featuring a false front that funnels into a pond; and the seventh is a risk/reward 313 yards. And that's just the front-nine. There's only one dog leg, No. 11, so most fairways are pretty straight. The signature is considered No. 17, a par-4 with a creek and bunkers virtually the entire 414 yards. Eagle Point closes with a downhill 580-yarder reachable in two, fostering the possibility of wild swings but also disaster with water along the right side of the green.
Weather-wise, temperatures are forecast to be in the 70s, with the lone significant chance of rain coming on Friday morning -- 100 percent chance, in fact. But it's hard to determine how that would affect the morning and afternoon waves, and whether 36 holes would be completed on schedule. Most importantly, however, a strong wind is forecast to be around 20 mph the first three rounds, dissipating slightly on Sunday.
Key Stats to Winning at Eagle Point
• Greens in regulation
• Scrambling
• Putting average/strokes gained putting
• Sand saves
Past Champions
2016 - James Hahn
2015 - Rory McIlroy
2014 - J.B. Holmes
2013 - Derek Ernst
2012 - Rickie Fowler
2011 - Lucas Glover
2010 - Rory McIlroy
2009 - Sean O'Hair
2008 - Anthony Kim
2007 - Tiger Woods
Champion's Profile:
There are some huge names in the past champions list above, but it doesn't matter. None of them have played Eagle Point. With so much trouble lurking around the greens, that's our main focus: greens in regulation and scrambling, along with proficient bunker play. Putting could be tricky, but that should be the case for the entire field. We mean that unfamiliarity with greens tends to be an equalizer, a detriment to the better putters. Still, putting is in our considerations, just not as much as GIR and scrambling.
DRAFTKINGS VALUE PICKS (Based on Standard $50K Salary Cap)
Tier 1 Values
Jon Rahm - $11,000 (Winning odds at golfodds.com: 12-1)
The price for Dustin Johnson is a whopping $13,000 -- understandable in a weak field but a little much for us, especially coming off an injury. We'll turn to the No. 2 guy on the DraftKings board, Rahm, who checks off all the boxes nicely: 15th in GIR, 22nd in scrambling. second in strokes gained tee to green (just behind Johnson), ninth in strokes gained approach (again, just behind Johnson). Rahm has shown the ability to succeed at unfamiliar courses -- and that's when his opponents are familiar with them.
Adam Scott - $10,000 (15-1)
Scott has played only twice in the past two months and five times in 2017 so he's ... rested? That's not exactly the best endorsement, but he was T9 at Augusta. Scott is 36th in both GIR and in SGT2G, but he's not the greatest scrambler at 116th. He's not a premier putter but better than advertised, ranked in the 70s in both putting average and strokes gained putting.
Paul Casey - $9,900 (20-1)
This is the type of course Casey should and has thrived on. He's 14th in GIR, eighth in scrambling and sixth in strokes gained around the green. The Masters was his previous start, and he was solo sixth there. Statistically, he is far worse of a putter than Scott, but there are ways to minimize your deficiencies, as he showed at Augusta.
Webb Simpson - $9,700 (30-1)
Predictably, Simpson comes at an exorbitant price, and he will be among the highest owned. The man has been playing the course with some regularity for almost 20 years, so he might be a good play regardless of his cost. Simpson is 75th in GIR but improves to 18th in the SGT2G metric. He's 16th in scrambling and eighth on Tour in sand saves. Even his putting is not atrocious, at 111th in PA.
Tier 2 Values
Bill Haas - $9,500 (30-1)
Word on the street is that Haas has some familiarity with Eagle Point, since he's a North Carolinian who attended Wake Forest. We're relying on that perhaps a bit too heavily, as Haas has not been playing well of late, at least in stroke play. His only such top-15 since January was T11 at Riviera, a track at which he has a good history. Still, Haas's numbers line up: 13th in GIR, fifth in scrambling, 25th in sand saves. As for strokes gained: 20th T2G, eighth around the green.
Wesley Bryan - $9,100 (30-1)
The man recently celebrated his first Tour victory at ... Taco Bell. Despite that obvious mishit, we'll still pick him anyway. Bryan is a South Carolinian, familiar with the region and its courses. Oddly, he's an awful 156th in GIR, but improves markedly to 40th in SGT26. His short-game brilliance is now well known: 13th in scrambling.
Kevin Kisner - $8,400 (25-1)
The South Carolina native enjoying a terrific season sure seems low-balled at $8,400. C'mon, Lucas Glover is $200 more! Kisner is 79th in GIR, but ninth in SGT2G and 12th in strokes gained approach. He's 41st in scrambling and 18th strokes gained around the green. And 39th in SGP. Last week's runner-up at New Orleans was his second in five starts (Bay Hill). Kisner already has four top-10s and a whopping eight top-25s in only 13 starts.
Daniel Berger - $8,300 (30-1)
Here's a lukewarm endorsement for a guy who should be having a better season than he is. Berger is 78th in GIR (61st in SGT2G), 24th in scrambling and 19th in SGP. He's got three top-10s and five top-25s, but he's done it all in a very quiet fashion.
Tier 3 Values
William McGirt - $7,900 (40-1)
McGirt already has three top-10s and five top-25s, two of those top-25s in his last two stroke-play events: T22 at the Masters followed by a T3 at Hilton Head. McGirt is 22nd in GIR and 51st in scrambling. He's a middle-of-the-road 107th in SGP. His sub-$8,000 price could make him a popular option.
J.T. Poston - $7,700 (100-1)
At first glance, Poston at $7,700 seems a bit much. Maybe even at second glance. But the rookie has made eight straight cuts dating to early February, with five of them top-30s. He's only 128th in GIR, but 79th in SGT2G -- those are season-long totals that surely are better of late. Poston is also 79th in scrambling and 25th in PA. Oh, one more thing: He's a North Carolinian.
Martin Laird - $7,200 (60-1)
Laird had been having a terrific season into mid-February, then either hit a rough patch or just didn't play enough. Either way, he made only three starts across two months: MC, T49, T64. But then he played a second consecutive week in San Antonio and tied for 18th. So maybe he just needed some more reps. He's 88th in GIR but 28th in SGT2G and 31st in strokes gained approach. Laird is the 26th-ranked scrambler. His putting also looks good -- 46th in PA, 64th in SGP.
David Hearn - $7,000 (Field, 11-4)
Hearn had an absolutely horrid start to the season, missing 7-of-9 cuts with a best cash of T58. But beginning with the Honda, he's made 6-of-7, with two top-25s in stroke-play events (and a third last week in New Orleans). And yet for the season, he's still 34th in scrambling and 10th in sand saves. The putting is still lagging -- see what we did there? -- but we're thinking it's good enough to make it to the weekend with plenty to spare.
Long-Shot Values
Andres Gonzales - $6,900 (Field, 11-4)
Gonzales missed the cut last week in New Orelans, but has three straight cashes in stroke play, and in seven in his last nine events. He's got decent numbers: 67th in GIR, 53rd in scrambling and 63rd in sand saves. And he's 34th in SGP. Why isn't this guy having a better season?
John Peterson - $6,600 (Field, 11-4)
The oft-injured Peterson is rebounding from his latest setback (right shoulder). He withdrew before the start at Houston, but has played three times since, missing two cuts followed by a T39/MDF last week teaming with fellow Louisianan Andrew Loupe. So it's certainly a bit of a reach, but his numbers, if not his shoulder, look positive: 27th in GIR, ninth in scrambling, 63rd in strokes gained approach. Putting is a problem, a real problem: 197th in PA, 204th in SGP. And there are only 207 guys ranked.
Stewart Cink - $6,400 (100-1)
The 43-year-old is having quite a bounce-back season, 61st in the FedEx Cup point standings. It's surprising he's so low on the DK board. In his last seven starts, Cink has made six cuts and all of them have been top-30s. Numbers-wise, he's 30th in both GIR and SGT2G and 20th in strokes gained approach. He's only 122nd in scrambling but 76th in strokes gained around the green.
Brandon Hagy - $6,100 (Field, 11-4)
The rookie has made 9-of-13 cuts on the season, but has missed only one cash in three months (oddly enough, that came in the opposite-field Puerto Rico Open). He's only 155th in GIR, but that improves to 88th with STT2G. Hagy also is 36th in scrambling, 42nd in sand saves and an even-better 25th in strokes gained around the green. Putting? 115th in SGP. Hagy is just above the bottom-level $6,000. Really, not a bad low-priced option.
