This article is part of our DraftKings PGA DFS Picks series.
WGC-BRIDGESTONE INVITATIONAL
Purse: $9.75M
Winner's Share: $1.7M
FedEx Cup Points: 550 to the Winner
Location: Akron, Ohio
Course: Firestone Country Club (South Course)
Yardage: 7,400
Par: 70
2016 champion: Dustin Johnson
Tournament Preview
We'll start off with an eye-opening factoid: It's been four years since Tiger Woods last won a tournament, and it came right here at the 2013 Bridgestone. It may very well be his last title ever and, fittingly, he ran away by seven strokes. What has continued since then, and took place beforehand, was the quality of the golfers who win this tournament. Woods has three of his eight Firestone wins in the past decade, but of the other seven champions, only Shane Lowry two years was outside the OWGR top-25. And he was just coming off a top-10 at the U.S. Open. Granted, it's hard to find a fluke champion in an elite field of only 76, but you'd be hard-pressed to find even a high finisher who plays on one of the secondary tours around the world.
With such a small field, finding golfers few others are picking isn't easy. So don't get overly cute in trying to find a hidden gem, don't overthink things, don't double-cross yourself. And by all means, don't freak out if your guy bogeys the first hole -- there's no cut this week. Lineup construction is actually a bit easier than last year, when the field was a minuscule 61 -- the result of many Euros opting for the 100th anniversary of the French Open the same week. There is no such conflict now, and the only golfer in the top-50 in the world not on hand is Brandt Snedeker (wrist). Martin Kaymer (shoulder) is the only other golfer who qualified but isn't here.
Now, on to the course. At 7,400 yards, that's not long these days, but for a par-70 it is. It's the longest par-70 on Tour. There are only two par-5s. No. 2 is a baby 526 yards, but No. 16 is the brutish 667-yarder virtually no one can reach in two. Bombers surely have an advantage at Firestone, but don't completely discount moderate or even shorter hitters, as accuracy counts more than usual on the narrow, tree-lined fairways. All facets of tee-to-green play are important this week, as is par-4 scoring. With seven par-4s between 450-500 yards, we have included par-4 efficiency from that distance in the key stats and Champion's Profile below. Firestone was the seventh-toughest track on Tour last year and often finds itself in the top-10. While the course on the whole is a bear, no one hole stands out. Last year, the par-4, 494-yard 9th was hardest, but ranked only 70th toughest on Tour. Interestingly, the long 16th was fourth hardest here, unusual for a par-5. Here's another eye-opening factoid: Last year, Justin Thomas recorded only the third eagle at 16 since 1999, and all he needed to do it was hit a 414-yard drive plus a 56-yard hole-out.
Weather-wise, there's a chance of rain on Wednesday and there will be thunderstorms on Thursday and Friday, further lengthening the course. Since they look like throughout-the-day storms, it doesn't pay to set a lineup based on tee times. Besides, with such a small field, they aren't too spread out. At least temperatures and the wind will be bearable for the golfers.
Key Stats to Winning at Firestone (in order of importance)
• Ball striking (total driving + greens in regulation)/strokes gained tee to green
• Putting average/strokes gained putting
• Scrambling/strokes gained around the green
• Par-4 efficiency scoring 450-500 yards
Past Champions
2016 - Dustin Johnson
2015 - Shane Lowry
2014 - Rory McIlroy
2013 - Tiger Woods
2012 - Keegan Bradley
2011 - Adam Scott
2010 - Hunter Mahan
2009 - Tiger Woods
2008 - Vijay Singh
2007 - Tiger Woods
Champion's Profile:
There aren't many tournaments in which driving is so important -- distance and accuracy. And with greens in regulation always paramount, we'll be looking for the best ball strikers. But with hitting greens in regulation harder here than at most tracks, scrambling also should be a consideration. Let's focus on the past seven years: Every winner has been top-25 in driving distance, and five of the seven have been top-15 in driving accuracy. Interestingly, only two among the top-10 in distance on the PGA Tour this year are even here: Dustin Johnson (1st) and Brooks Keopka (T10) And only Francesco Molinari (7th) is top-10 in accuracy. Over that same seven-year period, the champions have finished no worse than 12th in GIR, and usually much higher. Despite such importance on tee-to-green play, short game also matters. All but one of those seven winners was top-10 in putting average (Rory McIlroy was 14th). And top-20 scramblers for the week also have filled recent leaderboards. So in looking for the winner, you'll have to focus on the big hitters (except Jordan Spieth -- there are a lot of "except Jordan Spieths" in fantasy golf). But when constructing a six-man lineup, no need to shy away from some of the shorter hitters who excel in other areas and who have played well of late and have played well here.
DRAFTKINGS VALUE PICKS (Based on Standard $50K Salary Cap)
Tier 1 Values
Jordan Spieth - $12,000 (Winning odds at golfodds.com: 8-1)
When looking at the various stats for off the tee, Spieth is nowhere among the leaders. You wouldn't believe this is one of the best golfers in the world. But no matter, he's Jordan Spieth. And it just tells you how good the rest of his game is. Coming off wins in his past two starts, including the Open Championship, Spieth is at the top of the DraftKings board. Even at that price, he's almost impossible to ignore. That said, you'd get no argument here if you bypass such a high price to avoid dipping too low toward the bottom to fill out your lineup.
Brooks Koepka - $11,100 (15-1)
Koepka's breakthrough season extends far beyond his U.S. Open win. He's also been top-16 or better at the Masters (T11), Players (T16) and Open Championship (T6). He withdrew here last year, but tied for sixth the year before in his maiden visit to Firestone. Besides his prowess off the tee -- Koepka is tied for 10th on Tour in driving distance -- he's T21 in strokes gained putting.
Rickie Fowler - $10,600 (15-1)
Yes, Fowler has come up short at just about every key moment of late. But he still has top-10s in almost half of his 15 starts, plus four career top-10s here, including each of the past three years. Fowler is third in total driving, 11th in SGP, T4 in par-4 450-500. And of course, an elite scrambler.
Hideki Matsuyama - $10,200 (20-1)
Right about now you've probably figured out we're bypassing some big names. Dustin Johnson simply has not been in top form to justify his price. Rory McIlroy, on the other hand, appears to be close to top form after a T4 at the Open Championship. He also has a superb track record here. But because he curiously fired his longtime caddie right before a WGC and a major, we'll pause, at least for a week, to see how that shakes out. After all that, we turn to Matsuyama, a bit of a forgotten man this week. He does not have the greatest track record here: T42 last year and T37 the year before, with a personal-best T12 in 2014. But it's baffling why he hasn't done better. He is one of the best from tee to green, ranking sixth in ball striking, 10th in GIR, eighth in strokes gained tee to green. And he's long, ranking 26th off the tee. We all know his putting has been sub-standard, but at both the U.S. Open and Open Championship, he was top-5 in putting average. So if Matsuyama can repeat that this week ...
Tier 2 Values
Paul Casey - $9,000 (30-1)
Casey is a top-25 machine -- 12 of them in his 18 starts this season, plus in his past two visits to Firestone and six lifetime. He is third in ball striking, eighth in total driving, ninth in strokes gained tee to green. He will be a very popular pick this week.
Adam Scott - $8,800 (25-1)
On one hand, Scott has not had the best of seasons, falling from seventh in the OWGR to 17th. But he hasn't played all much and does have eight top-25s among his 13 starts. He's got a great track record at Firestone, including a win in 2011 and T10 last year. Scott is still among the longest hitters, ranked 21st in driving distance. More importantly, he's 17th in strokes gained tee to green.
Branden Grace - $8,600 (40-1)
Grace has racked up top-25s at the past three Bridgestones. He's coming off a tie for sixth at the Open Championship, during which he shot a 62 in the third round, the all-time lowest score in a major. Grace is ninth on Tour in par-4 450-500.
Tommy Fleetwood - $8,400 (40-1)
Fleetwood is a virtual afterthought this week among most-tagged golfers, and we can't figure out why. He's one of the best ball strikers in the world playing on a course that puts a premium on ball striking. Yes, course experience counts a lot here, but plenty of golfers have had strong debuts without winning. Before tying for 27th at the Open Championship, the Englishman had a run of four straight top-10s, including a win at the French Open. Fleetwood tied for fourth at the U.S. Open and was runner-up at the WGC-Mexico.
Tier 3 Values
Daniel Berger - $8,300 (40-1)
Berger hit one tee shot in his Bridgestone debut last year, then withdrew with a shoulder injury. (No, that doesn't count as course experience.) He's playing the best golf of his career right now, with a win, runner-up and T5 in the past two months. Berger is ranked 23rd in ball striking, with a nice balance between total driving (35th) and greens in regulation (34th). He's also 27th in scrambling, 14th in strokes gained putting and an impressive 10th in par-4 450-500.
Zach Johnson - $8,000 (50-1)
We've come to our first short hitter in the value picks. Johnson is 141st in driving distance, roughly 30 yards behind DJ. But he's 18th in accuracy and puts it all together for a not-too-terrible 85th in ball striking. Johnson has endured a tough season, but this is the point on the calendar where he has traditionally done well. He was just T5 at the John Deere and T14 at the Open Championship. And he has eight Bridgestone top-25s through the years, including T10 last year.
Rafa Cabrera-Bello - $7,900 (50-1)
Cabrera-Bello is coming off a win in Scotland and a T4 at Royal Birkdale. True, those were links courses, but the Spaniard also tied for fourth at The Players back in May. His season-long numbers for tee to green on the PGA Tour are not great, but he does sit first in strokes gained putting. This is Cabrera-Bello's second visit to Firestone, and while the first one came five years ago, he did tie for 29th then.
Charl Schwartzel - $7,200 (50-1)
The South African has not had the best of seasons, but he does do well at certain courses, such as Augusta, where he tied for third this year. Schwartzel has top-10s at Firestone two of the past three years, and is coming off a T12 last week at the Porsche European Open. He led the field in GIR here last year.
Long-Shot Values
Russell Henley - $7,100 (80-1)
Henley had his best showing in his most recent visit to Firestone, tying for 17th in 2015. He really fits the mold for this course: ninth in ball striking, 10th in total driving, including a surprising 47th in distance. And when you throw in ninth in strokes gained putting, that's a very nice package.
Billy Horschel - $6,800 (150-1)
Every time we look at Horschel's stats, we wonder why he hasn't had more top finishes. Yes, he won the Byron Nelson and has three other top-5s on the season. But there are also a lot of missed cuts -- 10 of them in 22 starts. Fortunately, that's not a worry this week. Horschel ranks 17th in ball striking and 15th in GIR. Plus he's T4 with Fowler in par-4 450-500. In two prior visits to the Bridgestone, Horschel has a best of T33 in 2015.
Kyle Stanley - $6,700 (125-1)
Stanley has been a tee-to-green master all season long, ranking first in ball striking, second in total driving, first in GIR and fifth in strokes gained tee to green. He's even first in par-4 450-500. Stanley has played the Bridgestone only once before, but he did well, tying for 16th in 2012.
Brendan Steele - $6,700 (125-1)
Steele surely has cooled off from earlier in the season, in part because he's cut down on his schedule. But he was top-15 at the U.S. Open and followed that up with another top-15 the next week at the Travelers. Before that, he tied for sixth at The Players and 27th at the Masters. So he can hold his own in elite fields. Statistically, Steele ranks 28th in ball striking and 21st in strokes gained tee to green. He's played here only once prior, tying for 48th way back in 2011.
